Ji Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The newly released euro weeklies continue there good look from the previous runs..holding a +pna along with a-ao and -nao from week two through the end of the run... Meanwhile the 18z Gfs has us at 71 at 384 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Meanwhile the 18z Gfs has us at 71 at 384 next week might be our only hope.. too bad the gfs has a light shower over the se and a clipper passing to our north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The newly released euro weeklies continue there good look from the previous runs..holding a +pna along with a-ao and -nao from week two through the end of the run... fyi, those new weeklies show the storm at day 9 a HIT as it comes up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 next week might be our only hope.. too bad the gfs has a light shower over the se and a clipper passing to our north Give me a simple 4" snow and I will call this winter a success. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Give me a simple 4" snow and I will call this winter a success. No snow is simple here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Meanwhile the 18z Gfs has us at 71 at 384 Wow. Could we have rain with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 we knew it would happen; what a pathetic showing CFS2 finally throwing in the towel on a below normal JAN after weeks and weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 we knew it would happen; what a pathetic showing CFS2 finally throwing in the towel on a below normal JAN after weeks and weeks Icebox coming to North America. But how far south will it get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Icebox coming to North America. But how far EAST will it get Fixed.....these initial arctic dumps into the rockies/western plains always seem to modify quite a bit before getting here...hopefully this evolves in a way more favorable for cold lasting longer than a couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I just don't see anything of consequence outside of the mts for much of the east until at least the last week of JAN at least next year statistically favors big time a NINO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I just don't see anything of consequence outside of the mts for much of the east until at least the last week of JAN at least next year statistically favors big time a NINO Be patient. I think the arctic is coming whether it be south or east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I just don't see anything of consequence outside of the mts for much of the east until at least the last week of JAN at least next year statistically favors big time a NINO Next feb will be rockin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 honestly, I'm not intending this to be a JI rant, but really think even if we get cold the long wave pattern looks like crap and won't be able to spin up anything of consequence, with clippers that produce heading through the Great Lakes I mean, it is what it is, and I'm just calling it how I see it will FEB change? that I have no idea about but for now I think most of JAN is lost and I think that can be said up and down the east coast (where people live!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I appreciate your updates. yes, me too No problem guys. Glad to be part of a great discussion group! BTW did you see the 0z GFS run for 384hr?LOL. Take it with a grain of salt but -14 to -18C 850's over the region. Of course as we all know we won't that solution again until 2 days before the event if we're lucky! Wawa! But nice to see the GFS throwing it out there as one of many solutions in the weeks of runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 fwiw, Euro ensembles way north at 180 hrs with the southern storm enough to give DCA probably around .15" qpf and BWI close to .1" qpf hey, it's all we've got so we may as well milk it for whatever threat we can make of it, real or imagined at this point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I must be looking at the wrong GFS at least when it comes to this area.. remember this discussion Ian? did you see the 6Z run of the GFS? it's back! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/06/gfs_namer_105_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif (just don't look at the surface) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 i doubt it snows this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I just don't see anything of consequence outside of the mts for much of the east until at least the last week of JAN at least next year statistically favors big time a NINO I agree about the first part as despite getting cooler air this way I'm still not liking the patten that much. However, I disagree on the second part as I don't think next year is anymore likely to be a nino versus a neutral or Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Scrooge. I agree about the first part as despite getting cooler air this way I'm still not liking the patten that much. However, I disagree on the second part as I don't think next year is anymore likely to be a nino versus a neutral or Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 i doubt it snows this month Welcome to what I said 2 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 we knew it would happen; what a pathetic showing CFS2 finally throwing in the towel on a below normal JAN after weeks and weeks Please don't tell me you put an ounce of faith into that worthless model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I agree about the first part as despite getting cooler air this way I'm still not liking the patten that much. However, I disagree on the second part as I don't think next year is anymore likely to be a nino versus a neutral or Nina year.What do the analogs say about a neutral after a neutral after a Nina after a Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 I agree about the first part as despite getting cooler air this way I'm still not liking the patten that much. However, I disagree on the second part as I don't think next year is anymore likely to be a nino versus a neutral or Nina year. Wes, the basis of my comment was that per site below we have had nothing but NINOs following 2 NINAs and a neutral year (or otherwise similar type enso) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ensoyears.shtml edit: earlier in this thread I mentioned the fact that statistically odds favor a NINO and I was basically referring back to that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 Please don't tell me you put an ounce of faith into that worthless model. It has been pretty bad. We need a dose of reality here, and Wes has been provided it for the most part. I know he rankles a few nerves here...hell, sometimes he makes me depressed...but he's right. January is a goner for us. I hope I can be bump trolled and I eat my words...but man, I'm about as bleak and pessimistic as I've ever been. And Ian can tell you, I was winterwxlvr before winterwxlvr was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 what happened to the big rainstorm that the GFS had on the jan 15th and 16th...supposed to give us over an inch of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 looks like the gfs has sniffed out the euro's upper low in the south west this run. lets see what it does with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 looks like the gfs has sniffed out the euro's upper low in the south west this run. lets see what it does with it some potential there at 174 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2013 Author Share Posted January 11, 2013 baby steps it is, improvement but along way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2013 Share Posted January 11, 2013 flurries Looks like it right now but quite a change from the last runs...long way to go wathcing that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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