Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 still pretty qpf loaded for now. of course it will probably dry but it brings 1" liquid to the nc/va border it is but the problem is trying to get these southern stream systems to amplify on their own....and it isn't working this year for the most part and there is no reason to think it will work without a phase...even in weak ninos we have the same issue, but to a lesser extent.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 jan 30 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Matt is nailing the 1012mb sheared out crap storms he posted earlier we've seen it run after run this winter...maybe we can get some sort of 2-4" event if this thing can get its act together a little better....I don't think it helps that the vortex over Canada is too far west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 jan 30 2010. yeah...I mentioned that yesterday as an example of what probably can't happen....that wasnt going to be denied, but we had a STJ on steroids...we need help to get a proper system to ride up the coast..but maybe we can get a small to medium storm..you're right this seems to have ample moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 then the PV splits and a lobe goes over Saskatoon...that isnt good...these crappy winters it is tricky...in a good winter a southern stream system would barrel up the coast even with all the confluence to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 yeah...I mentioned that yesterday as an example of what probably can't happen....that wasnt going to be denied, but we had a STJ on steroids...we need help to get a proper system to ride up the coast..but maybe we can get a small to medium storm..you're right this seems to have ample moisture definitely not the same type of winter but the pattern for this one isn't all that different on the euro for now. granted it's like 100 years from now in model time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Finally saw the 6 hour increments. I like the potential-- which is all this qualifies as. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Finally saw the 6 hour increments. I like the potential-- which is all this qualifies as. of course you do...this run gives you 4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 day 10 has a huge +pna -ao and a slightly western based -nao. how many times has this been said this winter lol. i would be happy with just flakes in the air at this point. the skunk in ric is starting to stink. my poor little snow pile is melting fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2013 Author Share Posted January 10, 2013 hopefully DT stays quiet about this. we all know what happens the next few runs when he barks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 hopefully DT stays quiet about this. we all know what happens the next few runs when he barks whomp whomp whompppppppppp.....you know its coming sooner rather than later...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 the Euro came north from last night's run a good bit it is a Nina-like, if not Nina, pattern so north trends are typical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 the Euro came north from last night's run a good bit it is a Nina-like, if not Nina, pattern so north trends are typical not with a southern stream system and all that confluence to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 wow, at 198 hrs the euro has a closed low over Alabama this isn't too much different than what it showed on day 10 on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 not with a southern stream system and all that confluence to the north well, the Nina reference was that the models overdue the vortex in Canada sooooo, assuming it is doing it here, it will come north from current prog I'm gunna' make this little effer' work by d@mnit! enough is enough!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 of course you do...this run gives you 4" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 wow, at 198 hrs the euro has a closed low over Alabama this isn't too much different than what it showed on day 10 on Tuesday with an associated 1400mb sfc low the size of Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Still probably one of the more optimistic looks in the lowlands all season. Undoubtedly it will suck but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Still probably one of the more optimistic looks in the lowlands all season. Undoubtedly it will suck but... we're going to have to chase again in BF VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 we're going to have to chase again in BF VA at least it's a daytime snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 hopefully DT stays quiet about this. we all know what happens the next few runs when he barks WELL MAYBE THERE IS SOMETHING.... from JAN 10 run of the 12z ECMWF .. this model which handles SOUTHERN Lows soooo much better than the GFS... is seeing a strong closed Low over the southwest states. In fact the last few runs of the ecwmf have been " seeing" this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 could we just be seeing the usual euro too moist and too amped dealy in this range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Is Wes almost done his round yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 1/18/94 showing up on the D+8 Superensemble analogs for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Newest CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet. They are all over the place anyways but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE which would mean 850 temps in the -18 to -16C range for the mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Is Wes almost done his round yet? I'm done but don't have much to say about the euro run or the GFS for that matter. Having a southern stream system come east is always interesting but the nina look with the superstrong northern stream and vortex is bothersome as it would be better near nova scotia. It's worth watching but I'm not sure you can make a blanket statement about it will continue to trend north. That's possible but there are years 2010-2011 when the northern stream was so strong that there was little phasing until it was too late for us. The longer range models have been bouncing around with the handling of the vortex which is waht makes it somewhat interesting. We need the northern stream vortex weaker or farther north if we want the southern stream moisture to get north to us. Right now I'd lean for it not getting to us but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Nice polar and srn systems. Get a midstream in the mix and it'd be rocking. However it looks like a coach m special verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I appreciate your updates. Ne west CCKW map shows the extra tropical rossby wave train at 155W 30N and the one continuing to develop at 150E 20N along with the CCKW at 165E 0N. Still on schedule the 155W RW should move over the eastern US on Jan 15-16 and the 150E should pass over the eastern US Jan. 22-23. Also watching the GWO, the analogs are pointing to an arctic blast of air possible Jan 24-27 or Feb 2-4. I'm leaning more towards the 24-27 time frame since it coincides with the 2-3 week window after the SSW->PV split yesterday. Obviously models aren't feeling this yet. They are all over the place anyways but I think they will come around in the end. Still falls in line with thoughts back on the the 5th that Jan 25-30 could see -33C 850 tmps sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE which would mean 850 temps in the -18 to -16C range for the mid atlantic. tues2.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I appreciate your updates. yes, me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The newly released euro weeklies continue there good look from the previous runs..holding a +pna along with a-ao and -nao from week two through the end of the run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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