WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 lol- yes it is. But it's been dying like this @ 4-5 then 5-6 and most lately 6-7. The first 6-7 days of each run of guidance has been a bee line and the end has fizzled. But luckily it keep happening further into the octants every day. But your probably right. It will keep pushing forward until the beginning of phase 8 and then verify with a trip to the COD. It's just that kinda pattern...lol Just as you stated, the two week verification on the GFS MJO progression has not been good. It seems to have some real momentum the last few days. On another note, several of the GFS members have good precip in here with cold lurking close next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 On a more serious note.... I've been watching the mjo forecast for over a week once it decided to show a pretty strong wave propagating. Don't read into the cheese puff curl at the end of guidance too much. It's been there for days but keeps moving forward through the octants as time goes by. When the mjo was first signaled to be active it was actually near the phase 2/3 border at onset but it emerged out of the COD at phase 3/4 border. The GEFS didn't really show it progressing like it is either. It was more of a slow and erratic motion. It's moving with authority now. The disco in the sne thread is really good if anyone is interested in the more technical side of what's going on. At the current pace the index could be firmly in phase 7 within a week. My hunch is that the fade and curl at the end of guidance will continue to be pushed forward. I've checked the index daily for a while and every day shows a further push towards "friendly" territory with no signs of changing course over the first 7 days of each run of the GEFS. mjo1.8.JPG Here's the JFM temp composites for phases 6-7-8: mjo678.JPG It's just a piece of the puzzle to me and I'm just a beginner irt understanding what it all means for us. There is much uncertainty in guidance once we go beyond d7-8 so anything can happen. At the very least, it's nice to see the mjo become active and send a strong signal. Phase 6 temp composite really lines up well with what is progged at the same time for the eastern half of the country. We are getting teased with some real below normal temps as it is in the lr but it's prob a coin flip at best right now. If the mjo keeps up the strength it currently has AND cruises through the 8-1-2 promised land than I would hedge towards us getting some decent cold here for an acceptable amount of time (whatever that means). This is encouraging. We watched the MJO rot last winter in the circle of death. Getting to the good phases during good climo is encouraging. I think getting high latitude blocking with a hostile pacific in late January will be different than the same pattern in late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Among many things I am concerned about the impotence of the southern stream. We aren't going to get a 1/27/04 or 1/30/10 where the southern stream pulls itself up by the bootstraps and won't be denied. We are going to continue to see these seemingly healthy systems come out of the gulf and become 1016 amorphous blobs that get sheared out or become moisture starved waves of failure. No NW model trend this year. Nothing is coming up the eastern seaboard anytime soon without assistance. So we need a timed phase. Or something from the west northwest that thumps us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Among many things I am concerned about the impotence of the southern stream. We aren't going to get a 1/27/04 or 1/30/10 where the southern stream pulls itself up by the bootstraps and won't be denied. We are going to continue to see these seemingly healthy systems come out of the gulf and become 1016 amorphous blobs that get sheared out or become moisture starved waves of failure. No NW model trend this year. Nothing is coming up the eastern seaboard anytime soon without assistance. So we need a timed phase. Or something from the west northwest that thumps us. what makes you say that about the southern stream? maybe my memory is bad but it seems we barely even had one at all last year. the tx event is fairly potent. just bound to get strung out by the northern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Among many things I am concerned about the impotence of the southern stream. We aren't going to get a 1/27/04 or 1/30/10 where the southern stream pulls itself up by the bootstraps and won't be denied. We are going to continue to see these seemingly healthy systems come out of the gulf and become 1016 amorphous blobs that get sheared out or become moisture starved waves of failure. No NW model trend this year. Nothing is coming up the eastern seaboard anytime soon without assistance. So we need a timed phase. Or something from the west northwest that thumps us.During our torch winters, we have any number of ways to end up either at 5" or 11" (2" last year was a historic fail). For the higher totals, it could be a clipper maxing out over the area to drop 3-5" combined with one other modest event, or a total fluke like 3/99. Just looking at the stats, it seems more likely than not for those one or two events to happen that push DC past 5". If the two-event '91/'92 can make it past 5", then I think we're still better off thinking that a grass-covering snow will actually happen here at least once this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 1930-31 and 1931-32 were the only back-to-back winters in DC with 5" or less of snowfall for the season. That alone would argue that there should at least be appreciable snowfall at some point this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Just as you stated, the two week verification on the GFS MJO progression has not been good. It seems to have some real momentum the last few days. On another note, several of the GFS members have good precip in here with cold lurking close next week. I can't remember if it was HM or ORH but one of them had a great post about why you shouldn't buy mjo guidance past a week. I forget the why's buy its easy to remember to only focus on 7 days and pay attention to the trends beyond but not bite the hook. I agree with zwyts too. A decent nao/ao combo in late Jan has a much better chance at producing *something* enjoyable in the cities when the pac isn't cooperating. Especially now that it looks like the cold air will be piled up in Canada. It wasn't even cool by canadien standards in late Dec. For goodness sakes something has to give right? Enough already...sheesh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I can't remember if it was HM or ORH but one of them had a great post about why you shouldn't buy mjo guidance past a week. I forget the why's buy its easy to remember to only focus on 7 days and pay attention to the trends beyond but not bite the hook. I agree with zwyts too. A decent nao/ao combo in late Jan has a much better chance at producing *something* enjoyable in the cities when the pac isn't cooperating. Especially now that it looks like the cold air will be piled up in Canada. It wasn't even cool by canadien standards in late Dec. For goodness sakes something has to give right? Enough already...sheesh... I thought that a few days before Christmas and figured we would finally break the drought, but no such luck we are just in a God awful -PDA/NINA pattern for the last few years and it's not in a hurry to break down so I'm prepared for bad things to keep happening but will still keep the faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 what makes you say that about the southern stream? maybe my memory is bad but it seems we barely even had one at all last year. the tx event is fairly potent. just bound to get strung out by the northern stream? which one?...i don't see anything coming up the coast on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 which one?...i don't see anything coming up the coast on its own Well it's moved east now. But it was raining on TX for 2 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Well it's moved east now. But it was raining on TX for 2 days. yeah..it is going to shear apart and become flaccid.....that is going to keep happening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 yeah..it is going to shear apart and become flaccid.....that is going to keep happening... was the christmas day/boxing day storm (2012) all northern stream? memory foggy on it for some reason. i want to say it might have been dominated by northern stream at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 yeah..it is going to shear apart and become flaccid.....that is going to keep happening... I think it will shear apart but the look of the 240 hr Euro ens mean on the atlantic side is pretty good and it has moved some ridging towards the west coast so it is not that bad of look, same with the 18Z 240 hr GEFS. The pattern look like ti want to change and models can have a hard time during those periods. I have little confidence in knowing what the pattern will do right now but am encouraged some by the latest ens guidance that at least we may have a shot somewhere at or shortly after 240 hrs. The very end of the run the GEFS goes back to the retrogression in the pac idea but with it having trouble with the mean pattern outside of day 7 I don't think that necessarily means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 fwiw, 0Z GFS at 144 hrs is actually close to being snow around here it is snow in the mts of western MD and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 fwiw, 0Z GFS at 144 hrs is actually close to being snow around here it is snow in the mts of western MD and points north It and it's ens members have been trying for the last day or so on this. Worth watching anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It and it's ens members have been trying for the last day or so on this. Worth watching anyway. to be clear, I don't have any faith I95 has a chance at snow, but I was a bit surprised how close the 0 line, 850 and surface, were to I95 it would be refreshing if it drifted 75-100 miles south over the next 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I must be looking at the wrong GFS at least when it comes to this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I must be looking at the wrong GFS at least when it comes to this area.. not real close, but close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_141_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 was the christmas day/boxing day storm (2012) all northern stream? memory foggy on it for some reason. i want to say it might have been dominated by northern stream at least. I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. no.. the storm that just happened that caused the tornado outbreak and the big qpf event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 00Z GFS is all frozen precip Tuesday for CBE and HGR, and really close for MRB and FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 no.. the storm that just happened that caused the tornado outbreak and the big qpf event around here. Oh right...yeah there was some S stream involved there. I'd have to go back and look at the maps though and see how exactly it was integrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Oh right...yeah there was some S stream involved there. I'd have to go back and look at the maps though and see how exactly it was integrated. I guess I should remember but I didn't really track it that closely since I was out of town. Not that it really matters.. it just seems like we've had some more southern juice this year compared to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Amazing the differences between today's 06Z GFS run compared to yesterdays. Drops the PV to just north of the lakes which creates an interesting setup for days 6 and 7. Has southern energy just waiting to be picked up but at this point has no northern stream energy rotating around the PV to do it. With the PV providing blocking from anything cutting and plenty of cold air to tap into, as well as a 1045 HP dropping down through the plains, one might think there is potential being shown if we can get some northern stream energy. Of course the following runs will probably have the PV parked over Greenland so it is probably a mute point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 6z GFS members continue the possibility of a winter event for parts of the region next week. Some would be frozen for the cities. All we can do is stay tuned. For future reference, the Euro has a low in Iowa day 10. Let's see where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The AK and GL ridging looked really nice 4 days ago in the LR for a cold shot but it was too far out and things kept bouncing. Then those feature kinda vanished until yesterdays runs. Now we are getting close and I really like what I'm seeing. I think we've all been expecting a cold shot but how long and what happens in the pac has been up for debate. GFS is back to the idea of not retrograding the trough out west and screwing everything up. We've had the longest stretch of a dominant -pna that I can find. I'm sure it's happened before but not in 60+ years. 89 had an 8 month stretch but the current one is more pronounced. I suppose you could hedge that long streaks snap and the recent spike to pos territory may very well be an indicator that it's over at least for a short period of time. I was pretty concerned with the models last couple days going back to the same ole same ole. It just looked all too familiar. 0z and 6z gfs runs are showing some nice things at high latitudes. The kinds of things that keep cold around here for more than a couple days.I'm very cautiously optimistic because if the ak and gl ridging go away, so does the favorable pv placement and ridging in the west. I know most of you know this so my crappy paint skills are stating the obvious but for those who are interested in see what is right and what could go wrong this panel says a lot: The interesting thing about the 6z gfs is that the features I'm pointing out are there in some form or another well before and long after hour 192. Can we just get a damn storm that covers the tips of my tightly cut grass please? Is that really too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There was also definitely a curve to the precip shield around the Mid Atlantic also as the moisture was initially shunted east south of us in southern VA until the system phased and then hooked north. I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I think it will shear apart but the look of the 240 hr Euro ens mean on the atlantic side is pretty good and it has moved some ridging towards the west coast so it is not that bad of look, same with the 18Z 240 hr GEFS. The pattern look like ti want to change and models can have a hard time during those periods. I have little confidence in knowing what the pattern will do right now but am encouraged some by the latest ens guidance that at least we may have a shot somewhere at or shortly after 240 hrs. The very end of the run the GEFS goes back to the retrogression in the pac idea but with it having trouble with the mean pattern outside of day 7 I don't think that necessarily means much. I like that we are entering a period of climo where it is much easier to snow. I imagine some smaller events might sneak up on us here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I like that we are entering a period of climo where it is much easier to snow. I imagine some smaller events might sneak up on us here and there.\ The pattern on the 240 hrs GEFS and Euro ensemble means are not that bad. Both have low heights near nova scotia and higher heights over Greenland. The ridge position is along the west ocast is better. The only bad thing is the lack of a southern stream and the below normal heights over AK just north of the flat ridge. The latter may let more energy than we'd like get into western Canada with that energy digging towards the lakes where we could have northern stream clipper type lows going to our north. Still it's not a bad look to smaller sneak up events. Pretty much a climo look in terms of snow chances, not great but not totally horrendous like this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I like that we are entering a period of climo where it is much easier to snow. I imagine some smaller events might sneak up on us here and there. What's smaller? We havent had a 2 inch event in 2 years. I know, I get what you're saying but even a grass coverer will be big at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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