usedtobe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 yeah..it is going to shear apart and become flaccid.....that is going to keep happening... I think it will shear apart but the look of the 240 hr Euro ens mean on the atlantic side is pretty good and it has moved some ridging towards the west coast so it is not that bad of look, same with the 18Z 240 hr GEFS. The pattern look like ti want to change and models can have a hard time during those periods. I have little confidence in knowing what the pattern will do right now but am encouraged some by the latest ens guidance that at least we may have a shot somewhere at or shortly after 240 hrs. The very end of the run the GEFS goes back to the retrogression in the pac idea but with it having trouble with the mean pattern outside of day 7 I don't think that necessarily means much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 fwiw, 0Z GFS at 144 hrs is actually close to being snow around here it is snow in the mts of western MD and points north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 fwiw, 0Z GFS at 144 hrs is actually close to being snow around here it is snow in the mts of western MD and points north It and it's ens members have been trying for the last day or so on this. Worth watching anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 It and it's ens members have been trying for the last day or so on this. Worth watching anyway. to be clear, I don't have any faith I95 has a chance at snow, but I was a bit surprised how close the 0 line, 850 and surface, were to I95 it would be refreshing if it drifted 75-100 miles south over the next 6 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I must be looking at the wrong GFS at least when it comes to this area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I must be looking at the wrong GFS at least when it comes to this area.. not real close, but close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/00/gfs_namer_141_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 was the christmas day/boxing day storm (2012) all northern stream? memory foggy on it for some reason. i want to say it might have been dominated by northern stream at least. I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. no.. the storm that just happened that caused the tornado outbreak and the big qpf event around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 00Z GFS is all frozen precip Tuesday for CBE and HGR, and really close for MRB and FDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 no.. the storm that just happened that caused the tornado outbreak and the big qpf event around here. Oh right...yeah there was some S stream involved there. I'd have to go back and look at the maps though and see how exactly it was integrated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Oh right...yeah there was some S stream involved there. I'd have to go back and look at the maps though and see how exactly it was integrated. I guess I should remember but I didn't really track it that closely since I was out of town. Not that it really matters.. it just seems like we've had some more southern juice this year compared to last. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Amazing the differences between today's 06Z GFS run compared to yesterdays. Drops the PV to just north of the lakes which creates an interesting setup for days 6 and 7. Has southern energy just waiting to be picked up but at this point has no northern stream energy rotating around the PV to do it. With the PV providing blocking from anything cutting and plenty of cold air to tap into, as well as a 1045 HP dropping down through the plains, one might think there is potential being shown if we can get some northern stream energy. Of course the following runs will probably have the PV parked over Greenland so it is probably a mute point anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 6z GFS members continue the possibility of a winter event for parts of the region next week. Some would be frozen for the cities. All we can do is stay tuned. For future reference, the Euro has a low in Iowa day 10. Let's see where it ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 The AK and GL ridging looked really nice 4 days ago in the LR for a cold shot but it was too far out and things kept bouncing. Then those feature kinda vanished until yesterdays runs. Now we are getting close and I really like what I'm seeing. I think we've all been expecting a cold shot but how long and what happens in the pac has been up for debate. GFS is back to the idea of not retrograding the trough out west and screwing everything up. We've had the longest stretch of a dominant -pna that I can find. I'm sure it's happened before but not in 60+ years. 89 had an 8 month stretch but the current one is more pronounced. I suppose you could hedge that long streaks snap and the recent spike to pos territory may very well be an indicator that it's over at least for a short period of time. I was pretty concerned with the models last couple days going back to the same ole same ole. It just looked all too familiar. 0z and 6z gfs runs are showing some nice things at high latitudes. The kinds of things that keep cold around here for more than a couple days.I'm very cautiously optimistic because if the ak and gl ridging go away, so does the favorable pv placement and ridging in the west. I know most of you know this so my crappy paint skills are stating the obvious but for those who are interested in see what is right and what could go wrong this panel says a lot: The interesting thing about the 6z gfs is that the features I'm pointing out are there in some form or another well before and long after hour 192. Can we just get a damn storm that covers the tips of my tightly cut grass please? Is that really too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There was also definitely a curve to the precip shield around the Mid Atlantic also as the moisture was initially shunted east south of us in southern VA until the system phased and then hooked north. I assume you mean 2010? That storm had a southern stream...there was a big split flow in the PJ out in the PAC so we basically had a faux STJ for that storm. It could have hit DC, but the western ridge was really far east so DC's longitude really hurt in that one. It was a northern stream dominant system...but the southern vortmax was definitely a big player in the huge phasing of that whole system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I like that we are entering a period of climo where it is much easier to snow. I imagine some smaller events might sneak up on us here and there.\ The pattern on the 240 hrs GEFS and Euro ensemble means are not that bad. Both have low heights near nova scotia and higher heights over Greenland. The ridge position is along the west ocast is better. The only bad thing is the lack of a southern stream and the below normal heights over AK just north of the flat ridge. The latter may let more energy than we'd like get into western Canada with that energy digging towards the lakes where we could have northern stream clipper type lows going to our north. Still it's not a bad look to smaller sneak up events. Pretty much a climo look in terms of snow chances, not great but not totally horrendous like this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I like that we are entering a period of climo where it is much easier to snow. I imagine some smaller events might sneak up on us here and there. What's smaller? We havent had a 2 inch event in 2 years. I know, I get what you're saying but even a grass coverer will be big at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues.... I'd do cartwheels for a clipper that starts, stays, and ends as snow with temp =<30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 definitely not hostile...I think a 2-4" event would be celebrated..I just want to see .30" of QPF on run without temp issues.... I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". prepare for a lecture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I could definitely get with 2-4. I'm gonna punt car toppers and >1". you mean <1", don't you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 12z GFS has mitchnicks wintry mix for MRB Been possible for several runs now. Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members. I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities. Several GFS ens members try to get the cold in here a bit faster than the op. seems to bleed in from the north moreso than a nw-w cold front type trajectory. They also have some partially interesting setups in the 156-180 range. I think it was the Euro 0z that had a similar "near miss" type storm with the cold pushing in in this manner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you mean <1", don't you? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 Been possible for several runs now. Wide range of possibilities on the ens. members. I don't think I'd give up on this one even in the cities. you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. There is none. If I lived where he did, I'd be optimistic. But there is almost zero reason for us to hold out any hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 you have a curious love for individual ensemble members .. what is the upside for the cities in your opinion? I see very little myself. It appears you've confused him with someone who knows what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 So, it seems we get a couple cold blasts, pattern retreats a few days and as the pattern reloads, we are looking for something positive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 A question in my mind for next week is how deep the cold air can get into our area with that initial cold push. It looks like normally-cold places like Chicago are around 30 for a high temp on Monday but then go up to 40/low 40s by next Wed before coming back down to L-M30s for late next week, when snow chances go up for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 There is none. If I lived where he did, I'd be optimistic. But there is almost zero reason for us to hold out any hope. even out there the op is warmer than it was last night at least at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2013 Share Posted January 10, 2013 I dont think we need to make assumptions about 300+ hours out....but it certainly would make sense that we snap back into a RNA pattern...who knows...the evidence for day 9-12 or so is piling up that it may be good...we just need a storm It seems like we've got two options-- 1. Hope a pinwheel sw comes around that strong vortex. Very possible-- I also think that second Fropa may have some snow showers in front of it as those stronger artic pushes tend to wring out all the moisture. that's be a tracker special- >1 inch. ( really like .5) 2. Some marks of a sw later in the second cold snap, as the cold "may" be lifting out. Ugg? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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