January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Jebman]

All I ask is this: Decent cold air, overrunning with five inches of snow on the grass and roads so i can savor monumental backups while I enjoy a leisurely jebwalk, and a week of sub freezing weather. After that we can hit the 90s every fruckin' day thru September 30 for all i care.

 

But, I live near Washington DC.

 

I sure wont get snow.

 

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[showmethesnow]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

[BristowWx]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

06Z is quite terrible. Cold front and then warm again almost right away.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

 

EURO sucks too......

[showmethesnow]

06Z is quite terrible. Cold front and then warm again almost right away.

 

The recent ops have been showing what I was concerned about when the idea of a colder pattern first began showing up. Seems that we see this year after year where the models overplay the southern extent of the PV and its associated trough in the long range only to pull it and the trough further north as we progress in time. So instead of having issues with suppressed storms we end up dealing with cutters to our west. I also haven't liked the trend of the models to break down the ridging in the west quicker then what was initially being advertised.

 

The only possible saving grace that I have seen lately is in the runs of the ensembles that they seem to be holding onto the idea of a decent to strong -NAO but even that seems to be trending away from being western based which is normally the prime location for our region. One other potential positive I have noticed is that the ensembles keep hinting at lower heights in the 50/50 region so one could hope that we have good timing on a 50/50 low to keep a storm to our south. All and all the pattern no longer suggests a slam dunk for a prolonged colder pattern to me and any potential snowstorms will probably rely heavily on good timing.

[showmethesnow]

EURO sucks too......

 

Yeah it was pretty ugly. The ensembles looked much better though. Not a great look but way better then the op.

[Ronnie]

Here is DT's latest video:

 

[BristowWx]

All I ask is this: Decent cold air, overrunning with five inches of snow on the grass and roads so i can savor monumental backups while I enjoy a leisurely jebwalk, and a week of sub freezing weather. After that we can hit the 90s every fruckin' day thru September 30 for all i care.

 

But, I live near Washington DC.

 

I sure wont get snow.

 

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We can't offer you that right now...but what we can offer you is marginal cold air, a weak clipper that passes north and gives .5 inches of snow to everyone to your NW that melts on contact and a full day of near 40F weather...you do live near Washington DC so please enjoy the monumental backups as complimentary

[Ji]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year

[North Balti Zen]

We havent really had a cold day all year

Quoted for truth.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't know why people get bent out of shape over 10+ day forecasts.  They aren't any more likely to be correct than they are when they keep showing these massive cold shots (which never, ever happen).

 

The weather over the next two months is likely to be a mixed bag of different stuff, but we aren't going to know what it will be until we are within about 5 days.  Some aren't going to like that philosophy in a long range thread, but that certainly appears to be the reality.

 

If a person wants to give up on winter, go ahead.  There's really no need to look at models or this forum if that's your mind set, however.  If you haven't given up, then stay tuned, and don't be shocked if something good shows up.

[mitchnick]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year

 

I don't think we're there yet. I have little faith in the computer modeling as to when, and if, there will be a change to a pattern that will allow for some snow. The medium range progs seem to be vacillating every other day, so they are of little help. I say, give it 2 weeks and then we'll see whether this winter is going the way of 11/12.

[usedtobe]

There still is a lot of run to run jumping around in the ens means from the GEFS. The Ao is forecast to be negative with the ens mean keeping it negative but with a couple of members going pretty strongly positive. The PNA looks like it is going to be negative while the epo also is negative. That argues for there being cold air in the country but that the bulk of it will stay to our west and that our cold shots for the time being may be transitory.

The D+11 superensemble has look that is less cold that yesterday's as it extends the positive anomaly southwestward.

If you composite the analogs for a 500h anomaly map it looks pretty consistent with the forecast map.

At D+11 the composite gives us below normal temps but two days later we are normal to slightly above and by 3 days after the centered mean we are back in the warmth because of the retrogression of the ridge in the pacific which even on the map above is farther west than you'd like if you want to lock in cold.

The temp anomaly composite for around Jan 23 according to the analogs. I wouldn't get wrapped up on the exact timing of either the cold or the warmth. All I'm trying to do is show that the retrogression that is showing up on the superensemble mean and quite a few of the other GEFS ens means over the past 24 hrs would argue that our cold will be short lived. That doesn't mean it will never show up again. Heck, this remains a period when the skill in the models is likely to be below average.

[H2O]

I don't know why people get bent out of shape over 10+ day forecasts.  They aren't any more likely to be correct than they are when they keep showing these massive cold shots (which never, ever happen).

 

The weather over the next two months is likely to be a mixed bag of different stuff, but we aren't going to know what it will be until we are within about 5 days.  Some aren't going to like that philosophy in a long range thread, but that certainly appears to be the reality.

 

If a person wants to give up on winter, go ahead.  There's really no need to look at models or this forum if that's your mind set, however.  If you haven't given up, then stay tuned, and don't be shocked if something good shows up.

 

Patterns can be stubbornly persistent and so far there has not been enough proof that we can get the right one as winter moves along.  I'm pretty much resigned to this winter not getting near climo.  The question will be if I will be able to get at least a bit more than last year or do i get shut out.

[Deck Pic]

There still is a lot of run to run jumping around in the ens means from the GEFS. The Ao is forecast to be negative with the ens mean keeping it negative but with a couple of members going pretty strongly positive. The PNA looks like it is going to be negative while the epo also is negative. That argues for there being cold air in the country but that the bulk of it will stay to our west and that our cold shots for the time being may be transitory.

The D+11 superensemble has look that is less cold that yesterday's as it extends the positive anomaly southwestward.

Jan_9_2013_500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

If you composite the analogs for a 500h anomaly map it looks pretty consistent with the forecast map.

Jan_09_anal_comp_500_2013.gif

At D+11 the composite gives us below normal temps but two days later we are normal to slightly above and by 3 days after the centered mean we are back in the warmth because of the retrogression of the ridge in the pacific which even on the map above is farther west than you'd like if you want to lock in cold.

Jan_9_anal_temp_2013.gif

The temp anomaly composite for around Jan 23 according to the analogs. I wouldn't get wrapped up on the exact timing of either the cold or the warmth. All I'm trying to do is show that the retrogression that is showing up on the superensemble mean and quite a few of the other GEFS ens means over the past 24 hrs would argue that our cold will be short lived. That doesn't mean it will never show up again. Heck, this remains a period when the skill in the models is likely to be below average.

 

12z OP GFS is on board with your assessment....the PV over Canada is too far North and West...the southern stream loses all its potency and the day 9-10 storm does a late December redux...snow for the Trixies and even maybe Ji's with a very weak surface low and the vort well to our north and west

[Deck Pic]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

[EastCoast NPZ]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

Dec 2013 will be rockin.

[Ian]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

KA ftw?

[mitchnick]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

but the confidence that it won't be correct and will likely be completely different tomorrow as today's was from yesterday should allow us to remain functional

[Yeoman]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

Came to post this.. the 10ºC 850 line is closer to us more often than not..

[Yeoman]

but the confidence that it won't be correct and will likely be completely different tomorrow as today's was from yesterday should allow us to remain functional

 

Long range models are only correct when forecasting warmth.

[EastCoast NPZ]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year in two years.

 

fyp.

[mitchnick]

Long range models are only correct when forecasting warmth.

 

can't change our climo's default setting, that's all

[Deck Pic]

KA ftw?

 

hopefully a 2007 where FEB is -7.2 and H--ward still gives him credit for a great outlook...I have extreme doubts though...he may nail it..he has done great so far....I don't think the fact that we have a basinwide Nina is helping....

[WEATHER53]

KA ftw?

Looks like he is going to be right and looks like my concerns that I began stating in mid December are coming true. If it gets pushed back to very late Jan-early Feb then we are done and I have sensed, and stated, that we looked like we were done  when our first bout of cold did not materialize in late Dec/early Jan.  The pressure systems up in the Arctic regions have never set up the way they need to via my assessment methods to deliver cold.

 

We go through this often, 4 out of last 5 winters (and spare me Sandy-that was not a winter event) and that is as both weather enthusiasts and professionals we are still stuck with, and often just quite satisfied with the status quo, an assessment, evaluation and forecasting system that frankly does not work more often than it does work.  Cover all the bases is the modus of anything past 5 days.

 

I do not feel that it is incumbent upon me to state what the alternative could be when I state that what we have now is frequently illusionary and in layman's terms is "broke a lot"

[WEATHER53]

hopefully a 2007 where FEB is -7.2 and H--ward still gives him credit for a great outlook...I have extreme doubts though...he may nail it..he has done great so far....I don't think the fact that we have a basinwide Nina is helping....

Cheap shot.  If I remember he went very mild for 3 months, 2 out of 3 were, the season was slightly above.  That's not a bust and the words "great outlook" were very likely never used.

 

I will say this about you and he though. Over last 10 years you two have the overall best track records of anyone and anything.

If any entity was dependent upon both of your seasonal outlooks and your assessment with winter persistence patterns then they would be far better off than all the NOAA, CPC, NWS seasonal outlooks and pattern recognition.  I have for years championed the analog method employed by Keith and you and even though I highly believe in both of your skills I think it does damn the "official" products we are currently stuck with when you consider that two non-degreed mets, essentially very skilled hobbyists, can outforecast all the outfits that cost millions and billion per year to operate. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not wasting time or energy or emotion wondering about anything past day 5.  What I will look at is that by the latest GFS run, below freezing air, at both the surface and the upper levels, is just across the border in PA with precip flying at about 150 hours.  Yes, I know I broke my own rule and went beyond 120 hours, but yesterday on the GFS, this wasn't showing up.  It was on the Euro. That's what I want to watch.  I'll worry about day 10 next week.

[Deck Pic]

Looks like he is going to be right and looks like my concerns that I began stating in mid December are coming true. If it gets pushed back to very late Jan-early Feb then we are done and I have sensed, and stated, that we looked like we were done  when our first bout of cold did not materialize in late Dec/early Jan.  The pressure systems up in the Arctic regions have never set up the way they need to via my assessment methods to deliver cold.

 

We go through this often, 4 out of last 5 winters (and spare me Sandy-that was not a winter event) and that is as both weather enthusiasts and professionals we are still stuck with, and often just quite satisfied with the status quo, an assessment, evaluation and forecasting system that frankly does not work more often than it does work.  Cover all the bases is the modus of anything past 5 days.

 

I do not feel that it is incumbent upon me to state what the alternative could be when I state that what we have now is frequently illusionary and in layman's terms is "broke a lot"

 

I think it materialized...it was just a bit muted and we had a bad storm track...the 2 week period from 12/22 to 1/4 we had an average high of 43.8 versus normal average for the 2 week period of 44...It was just cold enough to get a snowstorm but we needed an ideal track..The far western burbs got 3 nice events....I am more confident that we may do better with a similar pattern in late January as climo is better so cold should be a little bit colder and bad storm tracks still might be serviceable for the events to get further east to DC and the closer in NW burbs...

 

I think that is going to be the issue going forward....I do think we get some proper air masses...just the prevalent storm track is bad...KA was smart to go for low snow and warmth...I thought he was a bit over the top with both but if he verifies it will be a brilliant outlook...I still like a cold FEB, but I am hardly confident....

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS ens members would say don't give up on next week just yet.

[NJwinter23]

Cheap shot.  If I remember he went very mild for 3 months, 2 out of 3 were, the season was slightly above.  That's not a bust and the words "great outlook" were very likely never used.

 

I will say this about you and he though. Over last 10 years you two have the overall best track records of anyone and anything.

If any entity was dependent upon both of your seasonal outlooks and your assessment with winter persistence patterns then they would be far better off than all the NOAA, CPC, NWS seasonal outlooks and pattern recognition.  I have for years championed the analog method employed by Keith and you and even though I highly believe in both of your skills I think it does damn the "official" products we are currently stuck with when you consider that two non-degreed mets, essentially very skilled hobbyists, can outforecast all the outfits that cost millions and billion per year to operate. 

 

What were your analogs for this winter?