January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[WinterWxLuvr]

Even if they did nobody would read it. Model panels are like watching a video to most. They just look at it and think it's the most likely outcome. I have a feeling most folks only look @ 850/precip and 2m panels. Just like looking at a radar loop.

 

I learned years ago that if you don't understand 500 maps then don't even bother looking at a model and thinking you know what's going on. 

 

Another thing about the natural swings in the lr is few if any take the time to put the last 2-3 runs side by side to see where the major difference is @ 500. This simple skill really helps a hobbyist get a handle on how to track and follow the changes and making at the very least semi-educated decisions on which way things are "leaning" in the lr. 

 

I couldn't agree more with your praise about how well the models do nowadays. All too many folks focus on a microscopic piece of real estate on a global model in the lr and yell "models suck" and things like that. My goodness that is unrealistic. 

 

The best course outside of d5-6 is to simply key on the longwave features. Understanding the 500mb polar panels on the gfs are an outstanding way of getting a handle on what to expect @ mid-latitudes. We rely on the setup to our north more than to our west when making sense of longer leads. 

 

As for the latest trends in the op runs, there is no reason to doubt the retrograding trough/ridge setup in the pac. We've already been here. On the other hand, having the pv on our side can change things in a hurry too. Even though the op runs are disheartening, I'm not sweating it yet because a lot has to transpire first before we freak out on the pac setup. Just look at the ens forecasts for the major indicies. Quite a bit of spread. Nothing is set in stone. I was never really confident in a major cold outbreak anyways because we've seen it time and time again in the lr just to have it not materialize. Hardly a shocking turn of events if it doesn't happen this time.

 

All modeled or dependent on models.  Using ensembles to predict 11-15 days, same thing.  The underlying assumption when you look at patterns, 500 maps, and on and on and on, is that you are looking at modeled patterns, 500 maps, etc.  None of them have shown themselves to be reliable.  I don't know who the poster was earlier who said it, but I think 7-10 forecasting based on climo and analogs would trump modeled forecasts,  wrt the upper air pattern.  

 

The positive to take from it is that if the 11-15 day outlook isn't what you want, you have a good chance that it won't be that way anyway.

 

I'm not sure I buy into the whole "the atmosphere has a memory" idea either.  This could change any minute.  1989-1990 is a perfect example of a total flip.  I'm not saying that that year has anything in common with this one, just that it can change completely, quickly.

 

Whatever the top 10 analogs, combined with SST data, suggest for the forecast 7-10 days from now, is probably, IMO, the most likely outcome.  It would be interesting if someone could post that 500 map (day 7, and day 10) using that technique, and then compare it to what happens at those times.

[WxUSAF]

Good look on the Euro day 9-10 (+PNA, PV over SE Canada, -NAO, southern stream)...but it's still day 9-10. 

[BristowWx]

Good look on the Euro day 9-10 (+PNA, PV over SE Canada, -NAO, southern stream)...but it's still day 9-10. 

Looks like 480 thickness north of Maine

[usedtobe]

The 12Z GEFS ensmeble are much slower with the retrogression which would widen the window of how long we might have a chance to get lucky before any warm up. As I tried to note in my earlier assessment is that this is a case where even the bigger features are not being forecast that consistently, especially the vortex over Hudson bay which on some runs ends up too far north of us and on others ends up far enough southeast in Canada to give us a chance for something. That feature is really important and even with a less than stellar Pacific could keep enough confluence around to get some winter weather if the timign were right on a shortwave. Also note how different the Euro and GFS are in handling the southern stream shortwave, the gfs seems to bury it way out west while the operational Euro shears it eastward. The euro hadling of the hudson basy vortex seems pretty consistent with the 12Z GEFS 240 hrs handling and is a much better look for us than the 12Z operational GFS which looks to be an outlier. I'm still not sure what to make of the pattern and think in this case Winterwxluvr's comments about the long range are pretty good. Last week the 14 day forecast was a no brainer that we'd end up torching this weak. This week the signals are much more mixed.

[Bob Chill]

The models have been reliable overall with longwave stuff. I don't know how anybody can say otherwise. I think it's way too easy to get hung up on a "nice couple of runs" and forget all the crappy ones before and then complain about the ones after. Models killed it in december. Especially the first 2-3 weeks.  They've also done an excellent job so far this month. Pattern changes simply cannot be accurately modeled. Timing the breakdown of a persistent pattern and showing where it's going 15 days in advance is probably mathematically impossible. 

 

As soon as we see things in the lr bouncing all over for 2-3+ days then we know we are in for some sort of sizeable pattern change. Whenever that starts to happen, posters like Wes and Zwyts and Co do a nice job deciphering and coming up with the most likely outcome. It good to take a step back from run to run verbatim roller coaster and look at the big picture. 

 

I personally hope I'm wrong with my opinion but I'm leaning towards a cool but not cold period with a messy storm track and then I would place a very small bet on the -pna re-establishing itself. I want to be wrong  and my opinion doesn't mean much anyways but it's how I'm feeling based on what I'm seeing. 

 

There is a bit of a recurring theme this winter in the pac and it's not a coincidence so there are factors that I wouldn't call "memory" but rather "normal" or "expected" given the fact that we were all banking on a Nino that vanished. I can't even count the # of posts in Mitch's cfs thread about how if the nino doesn't happen then we're fooked. Zwyts in particular was very precise with his posts irt to enso state.

 

For all intents and purposes we are basically in a weak nina enso. Or Nina hangover or whatever you want to call it.  The pattern sure resembles one. The persistent -pna is part of the hand we are dealt. There are some good years in the past that have similar features irt the state of the pna and enso. January of 57, 72, 90, and 02 all have very similar characteristics to what we are experiencing. 

 

These 500 anoms in Jan for those years look awful familiar. The ridge placement in the pac is undeniably consistent. I don't see how this month ends up vastly different at this time. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Swiscaster]

It's funny how we are talking about the difficulties in long-range weather forecasting when it is currently 43 degrees and raining at Dulles. 16 hours ago, the NWS forecast was "58 and Mostly Sunny" for this afternoon.

[usedtobe]

It's funny how we are talking about the difficulties in long-range weather forecasting when it is currently 43 degrees and raining at Dulles. 16 hours ago, the NWS forecast was "58 and Mostly Sunny" for this afternoon.

and I'm 58 so the for me the forecast wasn't that bad in mby though I am mostly cloudy. It's a strong warm advection pattern which usually leads to at least some clouds.

[snowfan]

You're at 58, I'm at 48. 10 degree difference over maybe 28-30 miles as the crow flies.

and I'm 58 so the for me the forecast wasn't that bad in mby though I am mostly cloudy. It's a strong warm advection pattern which usually leads to at least some clouds.

 

 

[mitchnick]

Accuwx maps haven't updated but day 8'ish looks sort of interesting on the 12Z Euro

anything falling from that -2 or -3C 850 temps for those with storm vista?

[WinterWxLuvr]

The models have been reliable overall with longwave stuff. I don't know how anybody can say otherwise. I think it's way too easy to get hung up on a "nice couple of runs" and forget all the crappy ones before and then complain about the ones after. Models killed it in december. Especially the first 2-3 weeks.  They've also done an excellent job so far this month. Pattern changes simply cannot be accurately modeled. Timing the breakdown of a persistent pattern and showing where it's going 15 days in advance is probably mathematically impossible. 

 

As soon as we see things in the lr bouncing all over for 2-3+ days then we know we are in for some sort of sizeable pattern change. Whenever that starts to happen, posters like Wes and Zwyts and Co do a nice job deciphering and coming up with the most likely outcome. It good to take a step back from run to run verbatim roller coaster and look at the big picture. 

 

I personally hope I'm wrong with my opinion but I'm leaning towards a cool but not cold period with a messy storm track and then I would place a very small bet on the -pna re-establishing itself. I want to be wrong  and my opinion doesn't mean much anyways but it's how I'm feeling based on what I'm seeing. 

 

There is a bit of a recurring theme this winter in the pac and it's not a coincidence so there are factors that I wouldn't call "memory" but rather "normal" or "expected" given the fact that we were all banking on a Nino that vanished. I can't even count the # of posts in Mitch's cfs thread about how if the nino doesn't happen then we're fooked. Zwyts in particular was very precise with his posts irt to enso state.

 

For all intents and purposes we are basically in a weak nina enso. Or Nina hangover or whatever you want to call it.  The pattern sure resembles one. The persistent -pna is part of the hand we are dealt. There are some good years in the past that have similar features irt the state of the pna and enso. January of 57, 72, 90, and 02 all have very similar characteristics to what we are experiencing. 

 

These 500 anoms in Jan for those years look awful familiar. The ridge placement in the pac is undeniably consistent. I don't see how this month ends up vastly different at this time. 

 

That's a very valid way to look at it, IMO. 

[Ian]

Accuwx maps haven't updated but day 8'ish looks sort of interesting on the 12Z Euro

anything falling from that -2 or -3C 850 temps for those with storm vista?

 

nope

[Midlo Snow Maker]

yeah...Euro looks nice at day 10

ens. look great, plenty cold and has precip......... atleast until 0z

[WinterWxLuvr]

ens. look great, plenty cold and has precip......... atleast until 0z

Is this in reference to the 144-168 time frame or more along the day 9-10 range?

[Ji]

Is this in reference to the 144-168 time frame or more along the day 9-10 range?

 

really? our snow threats are always in the 9-10 range. the day 10 storm yesterday on the 12z euro is still a 10 day storm except now surpressed

[mitchnick]

really? our snow threats are always in the 9-10 range. the day 10 storm yesterday on the 12z euro is still a 10 day storm except now surpressed

 

at 10 days, would you prefer a) hit, b ) miss to the north, c) miss to the west, or d) miss to the south

 

I'll pick d) at 10 days

[Bob Chill]

Mitch, you forgot E ) none of the above because their is no storm. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Mitch, you forgot E ) none of the above because their is no storm.

Just a matter of time. If that ec ens pattern at 10 days couldn't produce something of interest, I give up. But....it is 10 days. So .....

[mitchnick]

Mitch, you forgot E ) none of the above because their is no storm. 

 

I gave him a choice and wanted him to pick the best answer, not the right one  

 

btw, the ensembles do have yesterday's 12z storm going off the SC coast at 228 hrs and it's plenty cold (too cold thanks to the 50/50)

[Bob Chill]

On a more serious note....

 

I've been watching the mjo forecast for over a week once it decided to show a pretty strong wave propagating. Don't read into the cheese puff curl at the end of guidance too much. It's been there for days but keeps moving forward through the octants as time goes by. When the mjo was first signaled to be active it was actually near the phase 2/3 border at onset but it emerged out of the COD at phase 3/4 border. 

 

The GEFS didn't really show it progressing like it is either. It was more of a slow and erratic motion. It's moving with authority now. The disco in the sne thread is really good if anyone is interested in the more technical side of what's going on. 

 

At the current pace the index could be firmly in phase 7 within a week. My hunch is that the fade and curl at the end of guidance will continue to be pushed forward. I've checked the index daily for a while and every day shows a further push towards "friendly" territory with no signs of changing course over the first 7 days of each run of the GEFS.

 

 

 

Here's the JFM temp composites for phases 6-7-8:

 

 

 

It's just a piece of the puzzle to me and I'm just a beginner irt understanding what it all means for us. There is much uncertainty in guidance once we go beyond d7-8 so anything can happen. At the very least, it's nice to see the mjo become active and send a strong signal. Phase 6 temp composite really lines up well with what is progged at the same time for the eastern half of the country. 

 

We are getting teased with some real below normal temps as it is in the lr but it's prob a coin flip at best right now. If the mjo keeps up the strength it currently has AND cruises through the 8-1-2 promised land than I would hedge towards us getting some decent cold here for an acceptable amount of time (whatever that means). 

[WEATHER53]

That's a very valid way to look at it, IMO. 

 

And I agree also. And if we can see that, and the results that have followed and what is looming, then why can't the million dollar babies see it.  I bet there is a set of data, even if small, that would include a projected nino following a nina that failed to become a nino- and then what followed?

[Amped]

On a more serious note....

 

I've been watching the mjo forecast for over a week once it decided to show a pretty strong wave propagating. Don't read into the cheese puff curl at the end of guidance too much. It's been there for days but keeps moving forward through the octants as time goes by. When the mjo was first signaled to be active it was actually near the phase 2/3 border at onset but it emerged out of the COD at phase 3/4 border. 

 

The GEFS didn't really show it progressing like it is either. It was more of a slow and erratic motion. It's moving with authority now. The disco in the sne thread is really good if anyone is interested in the more technical side of what's going on. 

 

At the current pace the index could be firmly in phase 7 within a week. My hunch is that the fade and curl at the end of guidance will continue to be pushed forward. I've checked the index daily for a while and every day shows a further push towards "friendly" territory with no signs of changing course over the first 7 days of each run of the GEFS.

 

mjo1.8.JPG

 

 

Here's the JFM temp composites for phases 6-7-8:

 

mjo678.JPG

 

 

It's just a piece of the puzzle to me and I'm just a beginner irt understanding what it all means for us. There is much uncertainty in guidance once we go beyond d7-8 so anything can happen. At the very least, it's nice to see the mjo become active and send a strong signal. Phase 6 temp composite really lines up well with what is progged at the same time for the eastern half of the country. 

 

We are getting teased with some real below normal temps as it is in the lr but it's prob a coin flip at best right now. If the mjo keeps up the strength it currently has AND cruises through the 8-1-2 promised land than I would hedge towards us getting some decent cold here for an acceptable amount of time (whatever that means). 

 

 

A strong MJO dying right on the phase 6-7 border is a good sign of a bad winter.

[Bob Chill]

A strong MJO dying right on the phase 6-7 border is a good sign of a bad winter.

 

lol- yes it is. But it's been dying like this @ 4-5 then 5-6 and most lately 6-7. The first 6-7 days of each run of guidance has been a bee line and the end has fizzled. But luckily it keep happening further into the octants every day. 

 

But your probably right. It will keep pushing forward until the beginning of phase 8 and then verify with a trip to the COD. It's just that kinda pattern...lol

[WinterWxLuvr]

lol- yes it is. But it's been dying like this @ 4-5 then 5-6 and most lately 6-7. The first 6-7 days of each run of guidance has been a bee line and the end has fizzled. But luckily it keep happening further into the octants every day.

But your probably right. It will keep pushing forward until the beginning of phase 8 and then verify with a trip to the COD. It's just that kinda pattern...lol

Just as you stated, the two week verification on the GFS MJO progression has not been good. It seems to have some real momentum the last few days.

On another note, several of the GFS members have good precip in here with cold lurking close next week.

[Ian]

Among many things I am concerned about the impotence of the southern stream. We aren't going to get a 1/27/04 or 1/30/10 where the southern stream pulls itself up by the bootstraps and won't be denied. We are going to continue to see these seemingly healthy systems come out of the gulf and become 1016 amorphous blobs that get sheared out or become moisture starved waves of failure. No NW model trend this year. Nothing is coming up the eastern seaboard anytime soon without assistance. So we need a timed phase. Or something from the west northwest that thumps us.

 

what makes you say that about the southern stream? maybe my memory is bad but it seems we barely even had one at all last year. the tx event is fairly potent. just bound to get strung out by the northern stream?

[gymengineer]

Among many things I am concerned about the impotence of the southern stream. We aren't going to get a 1/27/04 or 1/30/10 where the southern stream pulls itself up by the bootstraps and won't be denied. We are going to continue to see these seemingly healthy systems come out of the gulf and become 1016 amorphous blobs that get sheared out or become moisture starved waves of failure. No NW model trend this year. Nothing is coming up the eastern seaboard anytime soon without assistance. So we need a timed phase. Or something from the west northwest that thumps us.

During our torch winters, we have any number of ways to end up either at 5" or 11" (2" last year was a historic fail). For the higher totals, it could be a clipper maxing out over the area to drop 3-5" combined with one other modest event, or a total fluke like 3/99. Just looking at the stats, it seems more likely than not for those one or two events to happen that push DC past 5".

If the two-event '91/'92 can make it past 5", then I think we're still better off thinking that a grass-covering snow will actually happen here at least once this season.

[WVclimo]

1930-31 and 1931-32 were the only back-to-back winters in DC with 5" or less of snowfall for the season.  That alone would argue that there should at least be appreciable snowfall at some point this winter.

[Bob Chill]

Just as you stated, the two week verification on the GFS MJO progression has not been good. It seems to have some real momentum the last few days.

On another note, several of the GFS members have good precip in here with cold lurking close next week.

I can't remember if it was HM or ORH but one of them had a great post about why you shouldn't buy mjo guidance past a week. I forget the why's buy its easy to remember to only focus on 7 days and pay attention to the trends beyond but not bite the hook.

I agree with zwyts too. A decent nao/ao combo in late Jan has a much better chance at producing *something* enjoyable in the cities when the pac isn't cooperating. Especially now that it looks like the cold air will be piled up in Canada. It wasn't even cool by canadien standards in late Dec.

For goodness sakes something has to give right? Enough already...sheesh...

[mitchnick]

I can't remember if it was HM or ORH but one of them had a great post about why you shouldn't buy mjo guidance past a week. I forget the why's buy its easy to remember to only focus on 7 days and pay attention to the trends beyond but not bite the hook.

I agree with zwyts too. A decent nao/ao combo in late Jan has a much better chance at producing *something* enjoyable in the cities when the pac isn't cooperating. Especially now that it looks like the cold air will be piled up in Canada. It wasn't even cool by canadien standards in late Dec.

For goodness sakes something has to give right? Enough already...sheesh...

 

I thought that a few days before Christmas and figured we would finally break the drought, but no such luck

 

we are just in a God awful -PDA/NINA pattern for the last few years and it's not in a hurry to break down so I'm prepared for bad things to keep happening but will still keep the faith

[Ian]

which one?...i don't see anything coming up the coast on its own

Well it's moved east now. But it was raining on TX for 2 days.

[Ian]

yeah..it is going to shear apart and become flaccid.....that is going to keep happening...

 

was the christmas day/boxing day storm (2012) all northern stream? memory foggy on it for some reason. i want to say it might have been dominated by northern stream at least.