January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[ORH_wxman]

Bob, the 18Z GEFS ens mean could be wrong as it is quite different from the earlier one. The 12Z Euro ens mean brings cold in at 240 hours but it has a big vortex up towards hudson bay and the ridge off in a position where it too might only deliver a muted not that long lasting cold shot. My post wasn't made to say the GEFS is write, rather it was a cuation against jumping right to the idea that this will necessarily be a long lasting cold shot like some are implying. I think the signals are still mixed though if we warm I suspect that sometime down the line the negative Ao will deliver. My gut feeling about the AO is it probably will be negative through the rest of Jan and much of Feb. Also, most of the dynamic models now have the MJO getting to phase 7 and don't make it to phase 8. Phase 7 still has a warmish look for the east according to the CPC composites. I thinnk Allan Hoffman's for the same phase have a colder look. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Of course we could still get minor events especially our friends to the west but a bad track would make it hard to get a 4 incher around the City and points east.

 

 

I think the CPC site probably weights the amplitude of the MJO wave against the temperature anomalies. The composite for phase 7 on Allan's page is for all dates where the MJO was in phase 7 regardless of amplitude. But when you look at the "above average" amplitude for phase 7, its much warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems to match the CPC map a bit better...particularly if you combined it with the "all dates included" map on Allan's site.

[Jebman]

All I ask is this: Decent cold air, overrunning with five inches of snow on the grass and roads so i can savor monumental backups while I enjoy a leisurely jebwalk, and a week of sub freezing weather. After that we can hit the 90s every fruckin' day thru September 30 for all i care.

 

But, I live near Washington DC.

 

I sure wont get snow.

 

Back to Battle Pirates and Author Rank/Agent Rank/Google Authoring. And Google Plus Communities.

[showmethesnow]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

[BristowWx]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

06Z is quite terrible. Cold front and then warm again almost right away.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

For those hoping for colder (except for some transient short lived shots) and potentially snowier conditions for our region you may want to skip looking at the 06Z op run of the GFS. If it wasn't for the ensemble runs looking better then the op runs I would probably be baling on the idea of a sustained and somewhat colder pattern for the region. As it is some of the trends in the last day or two from the different models are troubling to say the least.

 

EURO sucks too......

[showmethesnow]

06Z is quite terrible. Cold front and then warm again almost right away.

 

The recent ops have been showing what I was concerned about when the idea of a colder pattern first began showing up. Seems that we see this year after year where the models overplay the southern extent of the PV and its associated trough in the long range only to pull it and the trough further north as we progress in time. So instead of having issues with suppressed storms we end up dealing with cutters to our west. I also haven't liked the trend of the models to break down the ridging in the west quicker then what was initially being advertised.

 

The only possible saving grace that I have seen lately is in the runs of the ensembles that they seem to be holding onto the idea of a decent to strong -NAO but even that seems to be trending away from being western based which is normally the prime location for our region. One other potential positive I have noticed is that the ensembles keep hinting at lower heights in the 50/50 region so one could hope that we have good timing on a 50/50 low to keep a storm to our south. All and all the pattern no longer suggests a slam dunk for a prolonged colder pattern to me and any potential snowstorms will probably rely heavily on good timing.

[showmethesnow]

EURO sucks too......

 

Yeah it was pretty ugly. The ensembles looked much better though. Not a great look but way better then the op.

[Ronnie]

Here is DT's latest video:

 

[BristowWx]

All I ask is this: Decent cold air, overrunning with five inches of snow on the grass and roads so i can savor monumental backups while I enjoy a leisurely jebwalk, and a week of sub freezing weather. After that we can hit the 90s every fruckin' day thru September 30 for all i care.

 

But, I live near Washington DC.

 

I sure wont get snow.

 

Back to Battle Pirates and Author Rank/Agent Rank/Google Authoring. And Google Plus Communities.

We can't offer you that right now...but what we can offer you is marginal cold air, a weak clipper that passes north and gives .5 inches of snow to everyone to your NW that melts on contact and a full day of near 40F weather...you do live near Washington DC so please enjoy the monumental backups as complimentary

[Ji]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year

[North Balti Zen]

We havent really had a cold day all year

Quoted for truth.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't know why people get bent out of shape over 10+ day forecasts.  They aren't any more likely to be correct than they are when they keep showing these massive cold shots (which never, ever happen).

 

The weather over the next two months is likely to be a mixed bag of different stuff, but we aren't going to know what it will be until we are within about 5 days.  Some aren't going to like that philosophy in a long range thread, but that certainly appears to be the reality.

 

If a person wants to give up on winter, go ahead.  There's really no need to look at models or this forum if that's your mind set, however.  If you haven't given up, then stay tuned, and don't be shocked if something good shows up.

[mitchnick]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year

 

I don't think we're there yet. I have little faith in the computer modeling as to when, and if, there will be a change to a pattern that will allow for some snow. The medium range progs seem to be vacillating every other day, so they are of little help. I say, give it 2 weeks and then we'll see whether this winter is going the way of 11/12.

[usedtobe]

There still is a lot of run to run jumping around in the ens means from the GEFS. The Ao is forecast to be negative with the ens mean keeping it negative but with a couple of members going pretty strongly positive. The PNA looks like it is going to be negative while the epo also is negative. That argues for there being cold air in the country but that the bulk of it will stay to our west and that our cold shots for the time being may be transitory.

The D+11 superensemble has look that is less cold that yesterday's as it extends the positive anomaly southwestward.

If you composite the analogs for a 500h anomaly map it looks pretty consistent with the forecast map.

At D+11 the composite gives us below normal temps but two days later we are normal to slightly above and by 3 days after the centered mean we are back in the warmth because of the retrogression of the ridge in the pacific which even on the map above is farther west than you'd like if you want to lock in cold.

The temp anomaly composite for around Jan 23 according to the analogs. I wouldn't get wrapped up on the exact timing of either the cold or the warmth. All I'm trying to do is show that the retrogression that is showing up on the superensemble mean and quite a few of the other GEFS ens means over the past 24 hrs would argue that our cold will be short lived. That doesn't mean it will never show up again. Heck, this remains a period when the skill in the models is likely to be below average.

[H2O]

I don't know why people get bent out of shape over 10+ day forecasts.  They aren't any more likely to be correct than they are when they keep showing these massive cold shots (which never, ever happen).

 

The weather over the next two months is likely to be a mixed bag of different stuff, but we aren't going to know what it will be until we are within about 5 days.  Some aren't going to like that philosophy in a long range thread, but that certainly appears to be the reality.

 

If a person wants to give up on winter, go ahead.  There's really no need to look at models or this forum if that's your mind set, however.  If you haven't given up, then stay tuned, and don't be shocked if something good shows up.

 

Patterns can be stubbornly persistent and so far there has not been enough proof that we can get the right one as winter moves along.  I'm pretty much resigned to this winter not getting near climo.  The question will be if I will be able to get at least a bit more than last year or do i get shut out.

[EastCoast NPZ]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

Dec 2013 will be rockin.

[Ian]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

KA ftw?

[mitchnick]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

but the confidence that it won't be correct and will likely be completely different tomorrow as today's was from yesterday should allow us to remain functional

[Yeoman]

12z GFS as bad of a run as I have ever seen in my life..Absolutely depressing

 

Came to post this.. the 10ºC 850 line is closer to us more often than not..

[Yeoman]

but the confidence that it won't be correct and will likely be completely different tomorrow as today's was from yesterday should allow us to remain functional

 

Long range models are only correct when forecasting warmth.

[EastCoast NPZ]

i think we can call this a winter at this point. No matter what happens....it looks like cold and stormy is just not in the cards this year. We havent really had a cold day all year in two years.

 

fyp.

[mitchnick]

Long range models are only correct when forecasting warmth.

 

can't change our climo's default setting, that's all

[WEATHER53]

KA ftw?

Looks like he is going to be right and looks like my concerns that I began stating in mid December are coming true. If it gets pushed back to very late Jan-early Feb then we are done and I have sensed, and stated, that we looked like we were done  when our first bout of cold did not materialize in late Dec/early Jan.  The pressure systems up in the Arctic regions have never set up the way they need to via my assessment methods to deliver cold.

 

We go through this often, 4 out of last 5 winters (and spare me Sandy-that was not a winter event) and that is as both weather enthusiasts and professionals we are still stuck with, and often just quite satisfied with the status quo, an assessment, evaluation and forecasting system that frankly does not work more often than it does work.  Cover all the bases is the modus of anything past 5 days.

 

I do not feel that it is incumbent upon me to state what the alternative could be when I state that what we have now is frequently illusionary and in layman's terms is "broke a lot"

[WEATHER53]

hopefully a 2007 where FEB is -7.2 and H--ward still gives him credit for a great outlook...I have extreme doubts though...he may nail it..he has done great so far....I don't think the fact that we have a basinwide Nina is helping....

Cheap shot.  If I remember he went very mild for 3 months, 2 out of 3 were, the season was slightly above.  That's not a bust and the words "great outlook" were very likely never used.

 

I will say this about you and he though. Over last 10 years you two have the overall best track records of anyone and anything.

If any entity was dependent upon both of your seasonal outlooks and your assessment with winter persistence patterns then they would be far better off than all the NOAA, CPC, NWS seasonal outlooks and pattern recognition.  I have for years championed the analog method employed by Keith and you and even though I highly believe in both of your skills I think it does damn the "official" products we are currently stuck with when you consider that two non-degreed mets, essentially very skilled hobbyists, can outforecast all the outfits that cost millions and billion per year to operate. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not wasting time or energy or emotion wondering about anything past day 5.  What I will look at is that by the latest GFS run, below freezing air, at both the surface and the upper levels, is just across the border in PA with precip flying at about 150 hours.  Yes, I know I broke my own rule and went beyond 120 hours, but yesterday on the GFS, this wasn't showing up.  It was on the Euro. That's what I want to watch.  I'll worry about day 10 next week.

[WinterWxLuvr]

GFS ens members would say don't give up on next week just yet.

[NJwinter23]

Cheap shot.  If I remember he went very mild for 3 months, 2 out of 3 were, the season was slightly above.  That's not a bust and the words "great outlook" were very likely never used.

 

I will say this about you and he though. Over last 10 years you two have the overall best track records of anyone and anything.

If any entity was dependent upon both of your seasonal outlooks and your assessment with winter persistence patterns then they would be far better off than all the NOAA, CPC, NWS seasonal outlooks and pattern recognition.  I have for years championed the analog method employed by Keith and you and even though I highly believe in both of your skills I think it does damn the "official" products we are currently stuck with when you consider that two non-degreed mets, essentially very skilled hobbyists, can outforecast all the outfits that cost millions and billion per year to operate. 

 

What were your analogs for this winter?

[WEATHER53]

You're right...it was a bit of low blow...It wasn't a bad outlook nor a great one.....I think seasonal forecasting is in its infancy still and not a lot of money or resources are put into it because of the low confidence..I do agree with you about the models to SOME extent....These products are made available to the public without any sort of objective guidelines...It is common sense that they will get worse the further out you go....I am perfectly fine with the fact that they don't "work" when you get far out..I think what they can do is amazing....I don't expect any algorithm to be skilled enough to have any sort of precision outside of a few days with something so chaotic and complex with so many moving parts as weather patterns..I think there are plenty of people who have the skill and experience to understand how to use the models, when not to use them, what purpose to use them for and their biases and limitations...and as a result use probabilistic forecasting which to me is the best type of forecasting....I am slightly bothered, however, that the government releases a product to the general public without any sort of manual or guidelines that essentially doesn't work outside a certain range and cannot be taken at face value...

The only "what should the models do" suggestion that I can offer is that they are probalby too finely meshed. Kinda like looking at the Statue of Liberty with a microscope-you will get some intricate detail but miss the big picture.

[BristowWx]

GFS ens members would say don't give up on next week just yet.

Hr 240 looks not too bad...no reason to jump ship...our expectations are low anyway so heck with it...

[Bob Chill]

..I am slightly bothered, however, that the government releases a product to the general public without any sort of manual or guidelines that essentially doesn't work outside a certain range and cannot be taken at face value...

 

Even if they did nobody would read it. Model panels are like watching a video to most. They just look at it and think it's the most likely outcome. I have a feeling most folks only look @ 850/precip and 2m panels. Just like looking at a radar loop.

 

I learned years ago that if you don't understand 500 maps then don't even bother looking at a model and thinking you know what's going on. 

 

Another thing about the natural swings in the lr is few if any take the time to put the last 2-3 runs side by side to see where the major difference is @ 500. This simple skill really helps a hobbyist get a handle on how to track and follow the changes and making at the very least semi-educated decisions on which way things are "leaning" in the lr. 

 

I couldn't agree more with your praise about how well the models do nowadays. All too many folks focus on a microscopic piece of real estate on a global model in the lr and yell "models suck" and things like that. My goodness that is unrealistic. 

 

The best course outside of d5-6 is to simply key on the longwave features. Understanding the 500mb polar panels on the gfs are an outstanding way of getting a handle on what to expect @ mid-latitudes. We rely on the setup to our north more than to our west when making sense of longer leads. 

 

As for the latest trends in the op runs, there is no reason to doubt the retrograding trough/ridge setup in the pac. We've already been here. On the other hand, having the pv on our side can change things in a hurry too. Even though the op runs are disheartening, I'm not sweating it yet because a lot has to transpire first before we freak out on the pac setup. Just look at the ens forecasts for the major indicies. Quite a bit of spread. Nothing is set in stone. I was never really confident in a major cold outbreak anyways because we've seen it time and time again in the lr just to have it not materialize. Hardly a shocking turn of events if it doesn't happen this time.