January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[stormtracker]

wooo-hoooo!!!

 

be nice if the ensembles showed something similar just for the excitement factor, albeit subdued

 

as an aside, I wish those d@mn Europeans would put US state borders on their freebie maps (because I have to complain about something)

 

You'll get your snowstorm by next weekend.  I'm in Vegas.

[JMU2004]

Maybe not for the RIC airport.  The 1995-96 and 2009-10 seasons were still epic.  OFP (OFP to RIC is like JYO to DCA) recorded north of 50" in 95-96.  I measured between 14"-15" for the January 30, 2010 event, surface temps of 18*F during the duration of the storm...yet just SE of RIC there was sleet mixing in at the height of the storm, suppressing airport totals considerably.

 

From the late 1950's through late 1980's, RIC was closer to 15" annually.  Since 1990, more like 10" and maybe a little less as you point out.  Which period represents the anomaly?

 

The same N and W phenomenon that impacts DC is ever present in Richmond too.  March 1993 was almost no snow at the RIC airport, a mixed bag for the immediate metro area, and NWS documented 9" for central Powhatan county, 30 nautical miles W of RIC airport.

 

The blockbuster events for DC - think 2/2003, 2/2010...almost always mix for RIC...except for the late season events which will be primarily rain wire to wire.  I don't think this is a change, pretty much always been this way, at least for the 32 years I lived in Richmond and was paying attention.  2/2003 was forecast the day of to be 24"+ for RIC and it was 4" IP.  So, if someone could explain why big snow for DC and points north always means significant IP for RIC, maybe we would have a better explanation for their lousy snowfall climo.

 

 

Richmond is always a dividing line b/t rain/snow. I live 30 miles NW of the city, which is actually closer to 40 miles NW of RIC airport. Many many times I have recorded twice the amount of snow as RIC airport.

[Deck Pic]

I just saw the day 10 euro

 

[EastCoast NPZ]

I just saw the day 10 euro

 

 

I don't really know what I'm talking about, but isn't the HP in the wrong spot?  Looks like it slides to the SE of us.  Wouldn't that favor a track west and rain for us?

[Bob Chill]

I don't really know what I'm talking about, but isn't the HP in the wrong spot?  Looks like it slides to the SE of us.  Wouldn't that favor a track west and rain for us?

 

Hit refresh. There is nowhere for that low to go except below us. Pure brick wall to our north. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Hit refresh. There is nowhere for that low to go except below us. Pure brick wall to our north. 

 

Well, I did say I didn't know what I was talking about.

[usedtobe]

The Euro ens mean has the blocking vortex that the operation euro has near Nova Scotia still ensconced over Hudson Bay, a much poorer look than the operational.

[Deck Pic]

I don't really know what I'm talking about, but isn't the HP in the wrong spot?  Looks like it slides to the SE of us.  Wouldn't that favor a track west and rain for us?

 

the atlantic is almost perfect though suppression may be a concern...ideally we'd want the ridge off the west coast to be further east....it is more the pattern than this specific threat which will change 100 times or even disappear

 

This pattern solves 2 of our problems...-EPO/-NAO..incredible high latitude blocking will push good air masses down and storm track will be to our south...that is a huge start....we dont want a vortex over Alberta or and we want a +PNA, but the PAC side isn't that hostile

[Deck Pic]

The Euro ens mean has the blocking vortex that the operation euro has near Nova Scotia still ensconced over Hudson Bay, a much poorer look than the operational.

 

there is no way the op euro will be right..especially that quickly..........but  I love the -EPO that is showing up repeatedly on the models...we need real air, so these sh-itty storm tracks can  give us frozen further east than Martinsburg

[Bob Chill]

Well, I did say I didn't know what I was talking about.

 

When I first saw the page it was the map from 24 hours ago. I thought maybe you were looking at that map too because it looked horrid. Raleigh's maps play havoc on my eyes because my computer won't refresh the cache without me doing it manually. 

[Bob Chill]

there is no way the op euro will be right..especially that quickly..........but  I love the -EPO that is showing up repeatedly on the models...we need real air, so these sh-itty storm tracks can  give us frozen further east than Martinsburg

 

GFS wasn't bad either. Neither the op or ens. Nothing eye popping or anything but you could clearly see the pieces trying to line up. The one thing that seems all but certain is that some of the coldest air in quite some time is going to finally be on our side of the globe. We also seem to be cruising through a predominantly -nao/ao winter. Hard not to be slightly encouraged. Long leads or not. Longwave pattern slowly looking tasty. 

[icebreaker5221]

I don't really know what I'm talking about, but isn't the HP in the wrong spot?  Looks like it slides to the SE of us.  Wouldn't that favor a track west and rain for us?

 

Perhaps you are confusing maxima in 500 hPa height anomalies, demarcated by an "H", with what you thought was surface high pressure?  That would definitely be the wrong spot for the surface high. 

[Ji]

I just saw the day 10 euro

That's a Hecs look. 1045 high with a power system in the south

[Ji]

[EastCoast NPZ]

Perhaps you are confusing maxima in 500 hPa height anomalies, demarcated by an "H", with what you thought was surface high pressure?  That would definitely be the wrong spot for the surface high. 

 

Thank you, that clears it up. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Top 5 analogs in CPC discussion contain two January dates from 1990. That's enough to make your stomach queasy.

2000 is also there. So what does it mean....nothing would be my guess.

I just want that pattern change to 8 weeks of below normal temps and much above normal precip. Is that too much to ask?

[Deck Pic]

Top 5 analogs in CPC discussion contain two January dates from 1990. That's enough to make your stomach queasy.

2000 is also there. So what does it mean....nothing would be my guess.

I just want that pattern change to 8 weeks of below normal temps and much above normal precip. Is that too much to ask?

 

The top 10 SV analogs for the 12z OP GFS days 11-15 had six 1-4" events and four 4"+ events within 5 days of the analog dates including one KU....plus a smattering of measurables less than 1"

[WinterWxLuvr]

The top 10 SV analogs for the 12z OP GFS days 11-15 had six 1-4" events and four 4"+ events within 5 days of the analog dates including one KU....plus a smattering of measurables less than 1"

Sounds good. Two questions, what's SV and how many years in the data set?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Several GFS ens members try to get the cold in here a bit faster than the op. seems to bleed in from the north moreso than a nw-w cold front type trajectory. They also have some partially interesting setups in the 156-180 range. I think it was the Euro 0z that had a similar "near miss" type storm with the cold pushing in in this manner?

[mitchnick]

Sounds good. Two questions, what's SV and how many years in the data set?

 

Storm Vista weather site where Matt gets his model data

[usedtobe]

The 18Z GEFS run is pretty scarey. By 300 hours it retrogrades the Pac ridge which forces a trough in the west giving a classic npna pattern so we get the atlantic semi OK and lose the Pacific. It's a look we've seen earlier in December and initially gave us above normal temps with a negative AO and high heights over greenland. It's a pretty significant change from the map I looked at for the same general time on last nights 06Z GEF. The 18Z version would take lows back to the OH valley or Great lakes and put us on the wrong side of the lows. Occasionally we might luck out with a 50 50 low that would hold the cold air in for awhile especially out towards winterwonderland Winchester but would not be that good of a pattern and for us easterners would be pretty bad. I'm not sure what to make of the model as the MJO would like a more easterly position of the trough but I don't have enough expertise to buy that idea completely. It's discouraging that a lot of 1*Z GEFS members seem to have flipped to negative PNA idea which has been the dominant pattern most of the winter. Sometimes persistence is right. The one good thing is the AP looks more likely remain negative than go positive as the SSW event looks pretty good and we are already in a negative AO. Another positive with regard to the 1*Z run is that the models have been flipping which suggests lots of uncertainty. One of the reasons I don't like guessing much on the weather pattern beyond 14 days is I don't feel I have much skill and feel that most times I have some inside of 14 days. This week I doubt there is much pattern skill beyond day 10 if that long.

[mitchnick]

Wes, do you pick the off runs to post your "scarey" posts on purpose?    lol

Should we really be concerned about a 300 hr ensemble map from an 18z run or is it an old experienced weatherman's hedge?    

[gymengineer]

Wes, do you pick the off runs to post your "scarey" posts on purpose?    lol

Should we really be concerned about a 300 hr ensemble map from an 18z run or is it an old experienced weatherman's hedge?    

Well, caution is the word in the New England forum right now too for the period from two-weeks and beyond, after general optimism for cold in the mid-range.

Since we're this far ahead though, I wonder if it might be useful for those who have to write long-range forecasts/articles to write about an entire day's worth- or even longer- of ensembles (so, like 7 sets of ensembles for the GFS and 4 sets for the Euro if you look across a day-and-a-half) vs. describing ensembles from significantly fewer runs. Yeah, it would probably yield more "Very uncertain" type posts, but if that's where we are, then that's where we are.

[Bob Chill]

Wes, even if we do end up with another npna, wouldn't the silver lining be the fact that the airmass bumping up against the block would be much colder than in dec? We had a -nao/ao in December but the airmass underneath it was nothing but normal at best. Even when the pna cooperated we suffered serious bl and 850 issues.

If we end up with something similar to what your talking about then I would have to think that we can still get accum snow in the cities on the front end of a cutter. Nothing big of course but still....

[clueless]

Wes, do you pick the off runs to post your "scarey" posts on purpose? lol

Should we really be concerned about a 300 hr ensemble map from an 18z run or is it an old experienced weatherman's hedge?

Man. That was more than scary. But the question remains. It's a 300 hr off the 18z. If the features remain on the subsequent runs, well, it is just the pattern.

We will get a widespread snow >2 for the entire area at one point this winter....fingers crossed.

[clskinsfan]

The Euro day 10 setup looks like the late Jan 2010 setup, just a little east of what that one was.

 

 

Exactly. And that is what we want. Get that PV displaced south and it is game on. Then we have to worry about suppression. But I will take my chances with the cold air.

[HighStakes]

Wes, even if we do end up with another npna, wouldn't the silver lining be the fact that the airmass bumping up against the block would be much colder than in dec? We had a -nao/ao in December but the airmass underneath it was nothing but normal at best. Even when the pna cooperated we suffered serious bl and 850 issues.

If we end up with something similar to what your talking about then I would have to think that we can still get accum snow in the cities on the front end of a cutter. Nothing big of course but still....

 

I was thinking the same thing. Even if the upcoming cold underperforms it should still outperform and last longer ( possibly much longer ) than what we just had and that will help our chances. The fact that our average temps remain at their lowest until early Feb along with the region entering the most prime period for snowfall never hurts the cause for something decent on the front end even when we have a less than ideal storm track.

 

We might end up getting an event or two like we had in Jan. 2008. A system that looked bad for us on the models until 36 hours before and most areas got between 3-5 inches before we mixed and changed over. I could be wrong and hope I am but I think anything real decent waits until Feb.

[usedtobe]

Wes, even if we do end up with another npna, wouldn't the silver lining be the fact that the airmass bumping up against the block would be much colder than in dec? We had a -nao/ao in December but the airmass underneath it was nothing but normal at best. Even when the pna cooperated we suffered serious bl and 850 issues.

If we end up with something similar to what your talking about then I would have to think that we can still get accum snow in the cities on the front end of a cutter. Nothing big of course but still....

Bob, the 18Z GEFS ens mean could be wrong as it is quite different from the earlier one. The 12Z Euro ens mean brings cold in at 240 hours but it has a big vortex up towards hudson bay and the ridge off in a position where it too might only deliver a muted not that long lasting cold shot. My post wasn't made to say the GEFS is right, rather it was a caution against jumping right to the idea that this will necessarily be a long lasting cold shot like some are implying. I think the signals are still mixed though if we warm I suspect that sometime down the line the negative Ao will deliver. My gut feeling about the AO is it probably will be negative through the rest of Jan and much of Feb. Also, most of the dynamic models now have the MJO getting to phase 7 and don't make it to phase 8. Phase 7 still has a warmish look for the east according to the CPC composites. I think Allan Hoffman's for the same phase have a colder look. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Of course we could still get minor events especially our friends to the west but a bad track would make it hard to get a 4 incher around the City and points east.

[ORH_wxman]

Bob, the 18Z GEFS ens mean could be wrong as it is quite different from the earlier one. The 12Z Euro ens mean brings cold in at 240 hours but it has a big vortex up towards hudson bay and the ridge off in a position where it too might only deliver a muted not that long lasting cold shot. My post wasn't made to say the GEFS is write, rather it was a cuation against jumping right to the idea that this will necessarily be a long lasting cold shot like some are implying. I think the signals are still mixed though if we warm I suspect that sometime down the line the negative Ao will deliver. My gut feeling about the AO is it probably will be negative through the rest of Jan and much of Feb. Also, most of the dynamic models now have the MJO getting to phase 7 and don't make it to phase 8. Phase 7 still has a warmish look for the east according to the CPC composites. I thinnk Allan Hoffman's for the same phase have a colder look. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

Of course we could still get minor events especially our friends to the west but a bad track would make it hard to get a 4 incher around the City and points east.

 

 

I think the CPC site probably weights the amplitude of the MJO wave against the temperature anomalies. The composite for phase 7 on Allan's page is for all dates where the MJO was in phase 7 regardless of amplitude. But when you look at the "above average" amplitude for phase 7, its much warmer.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It seems to match the CPC map a bit better...particularly if you combined it with the "all dates included" map on Allan's site.

[Deck Pic]

The 18Z GEFS run is pretty scarey. By 300 hours it retrogrades the Pac ridge which forces a trough in the west giving a classic npna pattern so we get the atlantic semi OK and lose the Pacific. It's a look we've seen earlier in December and initially gave us above normal temps with a negative AO and high heights over greenland. It's a pretty significant change from the map I looked at for the same general time on last nights 06Z GEF. The 18Z version would take lows back to the OH valley or Great lakes and put us on the wrong side of the lows. Occasionally we might luck out with a 50 50 low that would hold the cold air in for awhile especially out towards winterwonderland Winchester but would not be that good of a pattern and for us easterners would be pretty bad. I'm not sure what to make of the model as the MJO would like a more easterly position of the trough but I don't have enough expertise to buy that idea completely. It's discouraging that a lot of 1*Z GEFS members seem to have flipped to negative PNA idea which has been the dominant pattern most of the winter. Sometimes persistence is right. The one good thing is the AP looks more likely remain negative than go positive as the SSW event looks pretty good and we are already in a negative AO. Another positive with regard to the 1*Z run is that the models have been flipping which suggests lots of uncertainty. One of the reasons I don't like guessing much on the weather pattern beyond 14 days is I don't feel I have much skill and feel that most times I have some inside of 14 days. This week I doubt there is much pattern skill beyond day 10 if that long.

Jan_8_2013_f300.gif

 

0z GEFS same garbage