January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[griteater]

Thanks Wes.  So that's a forecast pattern for Jan 18.  What I don't get is why 2009, Jan 18 is listed as an analog match.  Seems that that was a completely different setup on the east coast.

 

Anyway, you'd almost think that the GFS becomes a little bit interesting in the 180+ time range (12z).

 

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

[mitchnick]

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

 

now I know it's over

[WinterWxLuvr]

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

 

Yes it is.  Thank you for the correction.

[Bob Chill]

I'm not fretting much. We had things line up "ok" in late december but the cities got mostly whiffed. No biggie. Then we regressed a back for a warm spell. It's been obvious for days that we were going warm. 

 

The good thing is that it looks like things line up "ok" again coming up after mid month. I suppose it's worth pointing out that the first cycle of a crappy pac lasted nearly a month. This one is only looking to be a week to 10 days. It really doesn't look like the pna pegs in negative territory for weeks on end. At this very least this animation should relax a few folks. Probably have to add a couple days to the solutions but here's 500 anoms from 192-264 on the 12z gfs. Let's let this run it's course and then see what the pac decides to do. Nothing is certain. Not even the end of winter. 

 

 

[QVectorman]

I don't know what's wrong with the forum but I can't quote stuff correctly anymore.

 

I posted my forecast in here last night....anyways just wanted to give a POP of the forecast up to this point that was posted over 25 days ago. I chose Albany NY as the verification point since it's central most posters. I added numeric labels into the old posts to keep track of the dates.

 

Event 1 temps drop from mid 40's to upper 30's during the week to a 4 pm temp of 30 on Sat.

Event 2 temps drop from low 30's previous days to 3 pm high of 24 on Dec. 30

Event 3 temps drop from mid 30's on Jan 1 to a high of 18 on Jan 3...coldest air of season so far. (good shot of cold)

Event 4 temps warm from a high of 18 on Jan 3 to a high of 39 on Jan 6. Stated a 15-20F warm up....21F warm up

Event 5 temps drop from high of 39 previous day to fct high of 32 today (Jan 7). -7F colder...bust on magnitude of temp fall. 

 

'QVectorman', on 13 Dec 2012 - 14:48, said:

With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the 1) Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of 2)colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a 3)good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3.

'QVectorman', on 14 Dec 2012 - 16:54, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 4)15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another 5) spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

 

'QVectorman', on 21 Dec 2012 - 12:37, said:

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east 

 

 

[usedtobe]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not fretting much. We had things line up "ok" in late december but the cities got mostly whiffed. No biggie. Then we regressed a back for a warm spell. It's been obvious for days that we were going warm. 

 

The good thing is that it looks like things line up "ok" again coming up after mid month. I suppose it's worth pointing out that the first cycle of a crappy pac lasted nearly a month. This one is only looking to be a week to 10 days. It really doesn't look like the pna pegs in negative territory for weeks on end. At this very least this animation should relax a few folks. Probably have to add a couple days to the solutions but here's 500 anoms from 192-264 on the 12z gfs. Let's let this run it's course and then see what the pac decides to do. Nothing is certain. Not even the end of winter. 

 

 

 

I think you're right Bob.  The GFS ensemble members from 12z would suggest at least possibilities after about 7-8 days.  I don't trust anything modeled outside of about 4 days, so I think the wait and see approach is the only logical one to take.

[WinterWxLuvr]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

Jan_7_f312.gif

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

 

Now you've done it.

 

J/K Wes, thanks for the insight.  

[usedtobe]

 

I don't know what's wrong with the forum but I can't quote stuff correctly anymore.

 

I posted my forecast in here last night....anyways just wanted to give a POP of the forecast up to this point that was posted over 25 days ago. I chose Albany NY as the verification point since it's central most posters. I added numeric labels into the old posts to keep track of the dates.

 

Event 1 temps drop from mid 40's to upper 30's during the week to a 4 pm temp of 30 on Sat.

Event 2 temps drop from low 30's previous days to 3 pm high of 24 on Dec. 30

Event 3 temps drop from mid 30's on Jan 1 to a high of 18 on Jan 3...coldest air of season so far. (good shot of cold)

Event 4 temps warm from a high of 18 on Jan 3 to a high of 39 on Jan 6. Stated a 15-20F warm up....21F warm up

Event 5 temps drop from high of 39 previous day to fct high of 32 today (Jan 7). -7F colder...bust on magnitude of temp fall. 

 

'QVectorman', on 13 Dec 2012 - 14:48, said:

With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the 1) Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of 2)colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a 3)good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3.

'QVectorman', on 14 Dec 2012 - 16:54, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 4)15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another 5) spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

 

'QVectorman', on 21 Dec 2012 - 12:37, said:

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east 

 

albany.jpg

 

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

[Ian]

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

 

totally lost myself...

[ACFD FIREMAN]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

[mitchnick]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

 

we have to go beyond 10 days before we see any temp change, let alone snow

the whole thing is just getting tiresome

[WinterWxLuvr]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

 

Exactly why nobody should get excited or depressed over runs past a few days.  Just yesterday the Euro had a massive NAO, now, according to your post, none.

[Bob Chill]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

 

At the very least I like that the GFS (among other guidance) doesn't firmly plant the trough out west and hold it there. We saw that in Dec and what it can mean to sensible wx in the east. The simple fact that the trough makes a pretty steady march east is significant. My fear is that it keep getting delayed to the point that we get some sort of stale and moldy airmass by the time it gets here AND it proves transient but that really can't even be discussed at this point. 

 

I'm probably never going to pick a window in the LR again so I'm just going to sit back and watch the longwave features progress and only worry about shortwaves inside of a week. Easier on the nerves anyways. 

 

The NAO is going to become quite important within a weeks time. Weak or east based raises concern for a continuation of last months close but no cigar storm track. But there has been some hints at some  pretty high heights building in the NAO domain space. That's a positive no matter which way you shake it. Sure would help if the ridge out west behind the deep trough in the LR decides it wants to hang out for a week or so. THAT could indicate we are heading into a longer period of opportunity than just a few days. If it ends up being transient then we have to hope and pray for a one or maybe one-two and done setup. Persistence would favor the latter but a total WAG on my part.

[Bob Chill]

The euro could be right but digging the trough down into baha and then centering the lowest heights off the socal coast isn't the most believable progression. Sure it can happen but this is a big switch in a short period. I think a slower and less amplified version of the GFS is more likely. At least I hope so anyways. 

[Ji]

Tempted to erase all Model links and just see what happens

[MillzPirate]

everyone should just step away, enjoy the warm weather and reconvene in 10 days....... this back and forth is tiresome 

[QVectorman]

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

 

Ok I did it quickly for Harrisburg...circling the same points in red correlating to the time frames. Temp trends are the same no matter where you are for the dates... Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg etc. Temps still went from 31 on Jan 2 to 45 on the 6...+14 temp change. And today is cooler than yesterday...granted here I missed the magnitude of cool down for today but still. This forecast was posted 25 days ago. 

[Bob Chill]

I checked it out but the graphics need some work so I took a pass. 

 

Here's a screenshot:

 

 

 

[PhineasC]

Ok I did it quickly for Harrisburg...circling the same points in red correlating to the time frames. Temp trends are the same no matter where you are for the dates... Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg etc. Temps still went from 31 on Jan 2 to 45 on the 6...+14 temp change. And today is cooler than yesterday...granted here I missed the magnitude of cool down for today but still. This forecast was posted 25 days ago. 

midatlantic.jpg

 

Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg...

 

All primo Mid-Atlantic climo sites.

[Amped]

Not ready to give up on winter yet. Definetly have a chance after the 20th and it's a lot better than last winter. I'll cancel it by the 20th if models still look like crap.

[QVectorman]

Detroit, Albany, Harrisburg...

 

All primo Mid-Atlantic climo sites.

 

The long range threads are few and far between since the days of Eastern so the only threads that are active with red tags are this and the NE forum. Sorry I picked a site to verify 50 miles from your forum border. The larger obs sites within your forum are affected by the ocean so the effects are dampened a bit. I don't have time to do a forecast for everyone's back yard nor the time to verify the forecast for obs sites in your back yard. I assume most people in here have enough knowledge to look at the larger picture and see the patterns that were correctly forecasted over entire regions and appreciate the time people put into offering their knowledge. Obviously you do not, so maybe you should keep your thoughts to yourself. People complain that not enough red tags participate and some wonder why. People like you. If you have issues with a forecast from 25 days ago and nit picking because the verification site is 50 miles outside your area you will never be satisfied with any forecast so you should probably stop reading "mid-long range" threads. 

[WEATHER53]

sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro

 

Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science......

 

9 Ninos

3 Neutrals directly following NINO's

2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's

1 weak nina following a NINO

 

The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89.....

 

 

2009-10 - NINO

1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO

2002-03 -NINO

1957-58 - NINO

1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO

1978-79 - Neutral after NINO

1966-67 - Neutral after NINO

1963-64 - NINO

1986-87 - NINO

1965-66 - NINO

1982-83 - NINO

1987-88 -NINO

1959-60 - Neutral after NINO

1977-78 - NINO

1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO

 

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

 

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

 

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

And this is why analogs, which you skillfully employ, far trump seasonal index outlooks. Resting on the PNA, the EPO, the NAO and AO and MJO and on and on is simply far too many cooks in the kitchen.

[HM]

And this is why analogs, which you skillfully employ, far trump seasonal index outlooks. Resting on the PNA, the EPO, the NAO and AO and MJO and on and on is simply far too many cooks in the kitchen.

 

No. This is why the forecaster needs to accurately portray his/her thoughts using the tools at hand clearly. Even during the times of -AO and +PNA, the DC area was properly warned of the issues with the pattern during December.

 

Teleconnections are a quick way to communicate the pattern to other weather intelligent people. They are weather patterns and describe weather patterns... just like analog usage.

[QVectorman]

No. This is why the forecaster needs to accurately portray his/her thoughts using the tools at hand clearly. Even during the times of -AO and +PNA, the DC area was properly warned of the issues with the pattern during December.

 

Teleconnections are a quick way to communicate the pattern to other weather intelligent people. They are weather patterns and describe weather patterns... just like analog usage.

 

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio.

I don't recall anyone here doing anything like that.

[QVectorman]

not sure where you live, but we functioned quite fine here before you showed up with your backpatting

 

I'm not here to step on any toes. Again, this is one of only two active LR threads. I posted my forecast and offered a follow up as Don S. does. Wes said he didn't think Albany was representative of the MidA so I obliged and posted a second obs site to verify. I know Phin likes to do drive by's. I was just trying to get a forecast out to generate good discuss and hear others ideas such as those going on in the NE forum. I wasn't here to back pat either sorry if that is the way it came across. Again just trying to get some feed back on what others think about GWO signals strat. signals etc. MJO since LR experts are spread out between all the sub forums. 

[QVectorman]

I don't recall anyone here doing anything like that.

 

it was more in ref. to Phin. and I inadvertently lumped Ian into it. But from HM's post...it seemed Team Johnson fell into that category too. 

[WEATHER53]

not sure where you live, but we functioned quite fine here before you showed up with your backpatting

 

You got it.  Some of these guys are like doctors writing prescriptions, They seek for their message to be clouded in language (or in this case methodology) that is moslty understandable and applicable to them alone.

 

Over and over again we get that "it's just a tool".  Tool for what?-incongruity.

Put it simple and decades of observation confirm it.  Get some strong high pressure over of within 1-200 miles of Mongolia and that is the cold air mass, for whatever reason, that has a high propensity to end up over the mid atlantic.  Show me that, I can get excited. Show me how a+b+c+d=e is going to happen in 10-15 days and if all of it does happen then we can get cold then I am unexicted and there is a good reason for that-Analgos far trump indexes.

[HM]

Thank you. It appears these guys want someone to hold their hand and give them a play by play forecast for the thermometer on their patio. 

I don't know what you're talking about here.

 

after Dec 2010 and this december, I think we have started to realize that a naked -NAO, even a western based one, is not powerful enough so early in the season at this latitude...

Yeah. It was like shades of December 2001 all over again (a sad -NAO if you recall). More often than not, the Pacific cannot be trumped.