January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[mattie g]

since 1950, we never had a NINA after a neutral year that follows a 2 or 3 year NINA

so statistically, odds favor a NINO next year

Which we all know means we'll see a Nina. Record run and all that.

[usedtobe]

sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro

 

Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science......

 

9 Ninos

3 Neutrals directly following NINO's

2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's

1 weak nina following a NINO

 

The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89.....

 

 

2009-10 - NINO

1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO

2002-03 -NINO

1957-58 - NINO

1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO

1978-79 - Neutral after NINO

1966-67 - Neutral after NINO

1963-64 - NINO

1986-87 - NINO

1965-66 - NINO

1982-83 - NINO

1987-88 -NINO

1959-60 - Neutral after NINO

1977-78 - NINO

1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO

 

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

 

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

 

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

Nice post and even nino years the chances of getting more snow than normal is only 50%, of course when you do it's usually way more than average. I think the facebook crowd makes forecasts based more on getting hits and being sensationalistic than on climo. People tend to forget that most years yield less tha normal snow.

The euro ensemble mean at D+10 still looks pretty bad for snow and cold lovers. Looks like the great storm attractor would be up towards the lakes.

[Ian]

Nice post and even nino years the chances of getting more snow than normal is only 50%, of course when you do it's usually way more than average. I think the facebook crowd makes forecasts based more on getting hits and being sensationalistic than on climo. People tend to forget that most years yield less tha normal snow.

The euro ensemble mean at D+10 still looks pretty bad for snow and cold lovers. Looks like the great storm attractor would be up towards the lakes.

 

I apparently have a reputation on Twitter as hating snow because I never am that positive lately. Goes to show you how the social media crowd talks up weather locally.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Since Dec 26, the avg high temp at my home has been 38.11. I can live with that. What has been absent is the precip. One day with measurable precip and it was only about 0.1-0.2. This is usually what gets us. What good are normal or even below normal temps if there's no precip? I know it's a different story beyond the fall line, but there are plenty of us here west of it.

Also, I don't know why everyone gets their panties in a wad over 10 day forecasts. One of these days somebody is going to actually admit that it can't be done with accuracy. And why is everyone still harping on the Euro? It's a little iffy trying to claim that it's not getting out performed by the GFS lately. Of course, later today when the Euro weeklies come out, you'll see 50 posts about them if they're cold, and 200 if they are warm. As if it matters one iota what they show.

[Ji]

looks like we have to wait as usual for D11-15. A DC shutout is concerning me

 

[Ji]

still  not good wes right?

 

 

[mitchnick]

still  not good wes right?

 

 

 

 

I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

[usedtobe]

I apparently have a reputation on Twitter as hating snow because I never am that positive lately. Goes to show you how the social media crowd talks up weather locally.

I'm pretty sure if I had a twitter or Facebook account, I'd have the same reputation.

[usedtobe]

I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

It's still not a good look for us and would leave us above with above normal temps until a few days after D+11 and even then it looks like the front would stall pretty close to us. The AK ridge is nice but the southern end of the ridge is a big problem. The actually positive anomaly associated with it and associated ridge are still way too far west so the mean trough remains well to our west which keeps us with above normal heights and keeps the storm track to our north and west. The euro ens mean at 240 hours also has the same general warm look through the 6-10 day period. It is less aggressive bringing cold east than the operational euro. I'm not going to post any maps as I'll be doing an article tomorrow.

[annieB]

Hi Guys,

 

I am traveling to DC for a wedding  Jan 16 - 18th - do you see any widespread cold or storm for that timeframe?  I realize that it is a long way out, but down here in NC most posters are feeling that the cold will head our way around Jan 20th or later.

 

Sorry for the "IMBY" post, but I haven't been following DC weather and I thought you fine folks might have some insights!

 

Thanks a bunch-

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

 

Can someone explain what a mean centered on 1/18 means.  I just assumed it meant the pattern would look that way on 1/18.  Then I looked at one of the dates, 1/18/09 because I remembered it.  I don't think it looks like much of a match compared to what is shown.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Maybe the NAO and the SE ridge being shown on the GFS at 7+ days can link up and form a massive wall in the western Atlantic.

[usedtobe]

Can someone explain what a mean centered on 1/18 means.  I just assumed it meant the pattern would look that way on 1/18.  Then I looked at one of the dates, 1/18/09 because I remembered it.  I don't think it looks like much of a match compared to what is shown.

A D+11 centered mean takes the forecasts for D+9,D+10, D+11, D+12 and D+13 and then averages the pattern for those 5 days and then compares it to the historic 5 day means. The reason at that time range you use a 5 day mean is that the smaller scale features tend to get cancelled out leaving you with a picture of the mean pattern of the larger scale slower moving easier to forecast features. You're not trying to forecast the timing of individual waves which at such time ranges is almost impossible. Instead you are looking for whether the temp pattern for the period looks to be a warm or cold one. This winter, the D+11 means have been pretty good overall. The means are especially useful when it seems to stay the same for a number of days. In Dec of 2009 and Feb 2010 it was showing a really good pattern for getting a snowstorm for mulitple days before the big snowstorms. This year, the mean has only showed a decent pattern (not even a good one for I95 during one short stretch, when you got your snow. Otherwise the pattern has really been bad. Right now the models have been onto the coming warmth this week for quite awhile. They now show a cold pattern for the plains but one still not very good for us.

P.s. it also using multiple model runs for the mean.

[Deck Pic]

since 1950, we never had a NINA after a neutral year that follows a 2 or 3 year NINA

so statistically, odds favor a NINO next year

 

I think very high chance we have either another neutral winter or a Nino.....Still possibility of a Nina...WAG

 

40% Nino

40% Neutral

20% Nina

[WinterWxLuvr]

A D+11 centered mean takes the forecasts for D+9,D+10, D+11, D+12 and D+13 and then averages the pattern for those 5 days and then compares it to the historic 5 day means. The reason at that time range you use a 5 day mean is that the smaller scale features tend to get cancelled out leaving you with a picture of the mean pattern of the larger scale slower moving easier to forecast features. You're not trying to forecast the timing of individual waves which at such time ranges is almost impossible. Instead you are looking for whether the temp pattern for the period looks to be a warm or cold one. This winter, the D+11 means have been pretty good overall. The means are especially useful when it seems to stay the same for a number of days. In Dec of 2009 and Feb 2010 it was showing a really good pattern for getting a snowstorm for mulitple days before the big snowstorms. This year, the mean has only showed a decent pattern (not even a good one for I95 during one short stretch, when you got your snow. Otherwise the pattern has really been bad. Right now the models have been onto the coming warmth this week for quite awhile. They now show a cold pattern for the plains but one still not very good for us.

P.s. it also using multiple model runs for the mean.

 

Thanks Wes.  So that's a forecast pattern for Jan 18.  What I don't get is why 2009, Jan 18 is listed as an analog match.  Seems that that was a completely different setup on the east coast.

 

Anyway, you'd almost think that the GFS becomes a little bit interesting in the 180+ time range (12z).

[Deck Pic]

Thanks Wes.  So that's a forecast pattern for Jan 18.  What I don't get is why 2009, Jan 18 is listed as an analog match.  Seems that that was a completely different setup on the east coast.

 

Anyway, you'd almost think that the GFS becomes a little bit interesting in the 180+ time range (12z).

 

As Wes has mentioned, we probably go to a seasonable/seasonably cold pattern with a bad storm track....

[griteater]

Thanks Wes.  So that's a forecast pattern for Jan 18.  What I don't get is why 2009, Jan 18 is listed as an analog match.  Seems that that was a completely different setup on the east coast.

 

Anyway, you'd almost think that the GFS becomes a little bit interesting in the 180+ time range (12z).

 

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

[mitchnick]

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

 

now I know it's over

[Deck Pic]

I think very high chance we have either another neutral winter or a Nino.....Still possibility of a Nina...WAG

 

40% Nino

40% Neutral

20% Nina

 

I'd probably revise to

 

55% Nino

30% Neutral

15% Nina

 

we don't have a great sample size and the pre-satellite data is sketchy....but when we have had a neutral following a Nina....the following winter was

 

9 El Ninos

5 Neutrals

1 Nina...

[WinterWxLuvr]

The Jan 18 analog match is actually for 2008 (Jan 18, 2008)...which is a good match to the pattern.

 

Yes it is.  Thank you for the correction.

[Deck Pic]

Yes it is.  Thank you for the correction.

 

just at a quick glance, the analogs suck for us...at best colder with a bad storm track

[Bob Chill]

I'm not fretting much. We had things line up "ok" in late december but the cities got mostly whiffed. No biggie. Then we regressed a back for a warm spell. It's been obvious for days that we were going warm. 

 

The good thing is that it looks like things line up "ok" again coming up after mid month. I suppose it's worth pointing out that the first cycle of a crappy pac lasted nearly a month. This one is only looking to be a week to 10 days. It really doesn't look like the pna pegs in negative territory for weeks on end. At this very least this animation should relax a few folks. Probably have to add a couple days to the solutions but here's 500 anoms from 192-264 on the 12z gfs. Let's let this run it's course and then see what the pac decides to do. Nothing is certain. Not even the end of winter. 

 

 

[QVectorman]

I don't know what's wrong with the forum but I can't quote stuff correctly anymore.

 

I posted my forecast in here last night....anyways just wanted to give a POP of the forecast up to this point that was posted over 25 days ago. I chose Albany NY as the verification point since it's central most posters. I added numeric labels into the old posts to keep track of the dates.

 

Event 1 temps drop from mid 40's to upper 30's during the week to a 4 pm temp of 30 on Sat.

Event 2 temps drop from low 30's previous days to 3 pm high of 24 on Dec. 30

Event 3 temps drop from mid 30's on Jan 1 to a high of 18 on Jan 3...coldest air of season so far. (good shot of cold)

Event 4 temps warm from a high of 18 on Jan 3 to a high of 39 on Jan 6. Stated a 15-20F warm up....21F warm up

Event 5 temps drop from high of 39 previous day to fct high of 32 today (Jan 7). -7F colder...bust on magnitude of temp fall. 

 

'QVectorman', on 13 Dec 2012 - 14:48, said:

With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the 1) Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of 2)colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a 3)good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3.

'QVectorman', on 14 Dec 2012 - 16:54, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 4)15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another 5) spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

 

'QVectorman', on 21 Dec 2012 - 12:37, said:

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east 

 

 

[usedtobe]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I'm not fretting much. We had things line up "ok" in late december but the cities got mostly whiffed. No biggie. Then we regressed a back for a warm spell. It's been obvious for days that we were going warm. 

 

The good thing is that it looks like things line up "ok" again coming up after mid month. I suppose it's worth pointing out that the first cycle of a crappy pac lasted nearly a month. This one is only looking to be a week to 10 days. It really doesn't look like the pna pegs in negative territory for weeks on end. At this very least this animation should relax a few folks. Probably have to add a couple days to the solutions but here's 500 anoms from 192-264 on the 12z gfs. Let's let this run it's course and then see what the pac decides to do. Nothing is certain. Not even the end of winter. 

 

 

 

I think you're right Bob.  The GFS ensemble members from 12z would suggest at least possibilities after about 7-8 days.  I don't trust anything modeled outside of about 4 days, so I think the wait and see approach is the only logical one to take.

[WinterWxLuvr]

To build on Bob's post that after day 10 or 11, the forecast on the GEFS ensemble mean isn't too bad. The pac ridge seems to be working east and there is a negative where the 50 50 low would be. Of course this is still in la la land but is the best la la land GEFS ens mean at 312hrs since we started the southeast ridge look that the extended has shown over the past week or so.

Jan_7_f312.gif

The mean map shown above looks to have room for a shortwave near the MS valley even though in the mean none is shown. However, if you look on the spaghetti diagram you can see there is one member that actually has a close low near AR. No I'm not forecasting a snowstorm yet just saying that this particular ensemble mean doesn't look as horrid as what we've seen and looks more like the one in which Winterluvr and Ji go some snow. Still it's way out in la la land so the mean could look different on the next run.

 

Now you've done it.

 

J/K Wes, thanks for the insight.  

[usedtobe]

 

I don't know what's wrong with the forum but I can't quote stuff correctly anymore.

 

I posted my forecast in here last night....anyways just wanted to give a POP of the forecast up to this point that was posted over 25 days ago. I chose Albany NY as the verification point since it's central most posters. I added numeric labels into the old posts to keep track of the dates.

 

Event 1 temps drop from mid 40's to upper 30's during the week to a 4 pm temp of 30 on Sat.

Event 2 temps drop from low 30's previous days to 3 pm high of 24 on Dec. 30

Event 3 temps drop from mid 30's on Jan 1 to a high of 18 on Jan 3...coldest air of season so far. (good shot of cold)

Event 4 temps warm from a high of 18 on Jan 3 to a high of 39 on Jan 6. Stated a 15-20F warm up....21F warm up

Event 5 temps drop from high of 39 previous day to fct high of 32 today (Jan 7). -7F colder...bust on magnitude of temp fall. 

 

'QVectorman', on 13 Dec 2012 - 14:48, said:

With the MJO going into phase 1 and the 5-7 day lag for MJO induced waves to traverse the eastern US it would set us up for a wave to arrive in the east between Dec. 18-20 which is progged on the 180hr GFS and Euro moving across the upper Midwest or Great Lakes. The same wave also ushers in relatively "colder" air and plays nicely into the idea I spoke of the other day in my post about the pocket of relatively "colder" air arriving during the 1) Dec. 21-23 time frame based off of GWO analogs for the eastern US.Using that same concept for the GWO I expect another batch of 2)colder air Dec. 27-30. And Following the spike in the 10 and 30 mb temps that peaked back on Dec. 6 seems we should see a 3)good shot of colder air Dec 30-Jan 3.

'QVectorman', on 14 Dec 2012 - 16:54, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 4)15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another 5) spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

 

'QVectorman', on 21 Dec 2012 - 12:37, said:

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east 

 

albany.jpg

 

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

[Ian]

I'm not sure how relevant Albany is to here. We're not the upstate NY forum. Heck, our temps can be way different.

 

totally lost myself...

[ACFD FIREMAN]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

[mitchnick]

12z EURO at 240 shows an decent PAC but the Atlantic is bad. No sign of the previous -NAO. Without it the SE ridge doesn't budge in response.

 

we have to go beyond 10 days before we see any temp change, let alone snow

the whole thing is just getting tiresome