Ian Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 Mid February to end of March will be our time. We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall. Mark my words. 40" of snow? Don't forget sun angle.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall. Mark my words. Above normal for March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack Some have snow. 14th straight day here. My back yard 2 minutes ago. Time for it to melt if nothing is going to cover it. Getting nasty. If the latest models are right, it will be gone soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 6, 2013 Share Posted January 6, 2013 I posted this in the NE forum but it applies here.The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 15-19 range moving into the Jan 20-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 15-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border. With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. Actually I made a mistake when forecasting back in Dec. and I hate to flip flop...a big pet peeve of mine but since part of this is in testing stage I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month. Which again since this is still in testing and working out kinks...so the GWO signal that I used that shows up for Jan 8-10 and Jan 11-13 may be a teleconnection that produces pattern (HP cell over the SE) that forces a wave to track west of the Mississippi and into Canada putting the east in a region of strong southerly flow that ends up producing warmer 850 temps. Since both waves for those periods on the GFS appear to stay west of the MS and track northward. QVectorman, on 14 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said: With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8. I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December. To be fair, we DID have a change since early and mid-December. It just wasn't the change or pattern that we wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December. Wes is good at 10 days. zwyts may be spot on, again, with his forecast. I just think many want to hype possible sn events because they will be deemed brilliant by the demos. Very tough when you say it is not going to snow, or of it does, it will be a piddling event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmock25 Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Ok, my Redskins are eliminated. One of you better find me a snowstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 At 240 there is a +PNA developing and a -NAO that is moving westward. Cold air looks like it will be squeezed south and east after 240. Prior to this it is a torch. The 240 hr Euro ens mean has warmer look at 240 hrs than the operational and does not make it look assured how far south and east the cold air will get. Lots of cold for the central states but the cold struggles to get here. The cold Jan forecasts to me look like they are in real trouble since the cold early in the month has underperformed and the warm this coming week looks really warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The 240 hr Euro ens mean has warmer look at 240 hrs than the operational and does not make it look assured how far south and east the cold air will get. Lots of cold for the central states but the cold struggles to get here. The cold Jan forecasts to me look like they are in real trouble since the cold early in the month has underperformed and the warm this coming week looks really warm. The GFES also show the same at 240 but the ridge holds strong. The cold is always delayed if not denied in the long range. Definitely shaping up to be a dissapointing January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 DEC wasted now a JAN of any consequence for winter wx lovers is in serious doubt if the mr models are to be believed feels like he mid-70's again hopefully next year will be better, but the -PDO is really killing our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How is dec wasted? We got 4 inches and a white Christmas . January is a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How is dec wasted? We got 4 inches and a white Christmas . January is a disaster not worthy of serious reply Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 How is dec wasted? We got 4 inches and a white Christmas . January is a disaster We? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 looks like all we needed was a skins lost to get the real ji back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 The heat never gets delayed pushed back or busts. I wish it snowed at 60. DC would have snowier januarys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well January 2010 sucked around here up until the bitter end. December with our KU storm rocked and one week in February ruled with 2 KU storms. It only takes 1-2 solid weeks around here to make a winter. Outside of a 2 week period 09 and 10 winter was lame. Can we get a good week or 2, or a sneaky event? Jury is still out for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Check out the last 2-3 posts of this thread http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38622-cfs-backs-off-cold-here/#entry1980449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 JI, we can still get a KU this year. Its a not over for a longtime. Who knows what February will hold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Well January 2010 sucked around here up until the bitter end. December with our KU storm rocked and one week in February ruled with 2 KU storms. It only takes 1-2 solid weeks around here to make a winter. Outside of a 2 week period 09 and 10 winter was lame. Can we get a good week or 2, or a sneaky event? Jury is still out for this winter. JAN that year was well below normal the 1st 13 days and looked nothing like this month so that offers little solace except to say it ain't over until it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 I agree Mitch! All we need is a small window to open though. If and when that happens noone can say. Look at 96. A diamond in the rough 7 or 10 day period can make a season around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Jan 17-18 storm thread time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 JI, we can still get a KU this year. Its a not over for a longtime. Who knows what February will hold? fishing for a KU in what looks like a less than perfect year is probably not wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Jan 17-18 storm thread time? nice lakes low to help us out in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 nice lakes low to help us out in there http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38622-cfs-backs-off-cold-here/#entry1980449 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38622-cfs-backs-off-cold-here/#entry1980449 IntenseFlizzard2013 looks to know his stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science...... 9 Ninos 3 Neutrals directly following NINO's 2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's 1 weak nina following a NINO The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89..... 2009-10 - NINO 1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO 2002-03 -NINO 1957-58 - NINO 1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO 1978-79 - Neutral after NINO 1966-67 - Neutral after NINO 1963-64 - NINO 1986-87 - NINO 1965-66 - NINO 1982-83 - NINO 1987-88 -NINO 1959-60 - Neutral after NINO 1977-78 - NINO 1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 Euro has some cad and precip day 8-9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science...... 9 Ninos 3 Neutrals directly following NINO's 2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's 1 weak nina following a NINO The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89..... 2009-10 - NINO 1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO 2002-03 -NINO 1957-58 - NINO 1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO 1978-79 - Neutral after NINO 1966-67 - Neutral after NINO 1963-64 - NINO 1986-87 - NINO 1965-66 - NINO 1982-83 - NINO 1987-88 -NINO 1959-60 - Neutral after NINO 1977-78 - NINO 1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU.... And next winter is already over right as we go back to Nina? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 7, 2013 Share Posted January 7, 2013 And next winter is already over right as we go back to Nina? since 1950, we never had a NINA after a neutral year that follows a 2 or 3 year NINA so statistically, odds favor a NINO next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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