January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Wonderdog]

588 dm is 588dm., over a large area. Ridges stick themselves in the pattern wherever they damn well please and everything else works around them.

 

[Wonderdog]

Well, it would be nice to see the ridge weaken just enough to have the cold front just offshore. I don't think I've ever seen a cold front in the heart of winter hang up in the as depicted for four  plus days. I will be very surprised if that verifies. Has anyone seen such a setup in the winter in the mid atlantic?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Well, it would be nice to see the ridge weaken just enough to have the cold front just offshore. I don't think I've ever seen a cold front in the heart of winter hang up in the as depicted for four plus days. I will be very surprised if that verifies. Has anyone seen such a setup in the winter in the mid atlantic?

Living in SWVA, right on the KY border, I saw a front take 24 hours to move about 50 miles in the dead of winter. Jackson KY was reporting light snow and 28 and I was near 50 with rain. A day later my winds finally switched. This was about 1990 or so. That se ridge can be a bear to move sometimes.

[brad1551]

What stinks is January in speaking is our best month climatology wise for being the coldest and somewhat the snowiest. The next 2weeks don't look favorable at all for any real snowstorm. There are signs of colder weather to come around the last week or so of January. I hope my winter forecast for a backload winter comes true. Time will only tell and model surfing so far this winter has been very unpleasant. Cheers to the 1st week of 2013 without any fun in the meteorology world yet. Lol

[FrederickWX]

What stinks is January in speaking is our best month climatology wise for being the coldest and somewhat the snowiest. The next 2weeks don't look favorable at all for any real snowstorm. There are signs of colder weather to come around the last week or so of January. I hope my winter forecast for a backload winter comes true. Time will only tell and model surfing so far this winter has been very unpleasant. Cheers to the 1st week of 2013 without any fun in the meteorology world yet. Lol

 

I think February is actually our best month for snow.  The Atlantic waters are cold, and we also start to get more energy back into the atmosphere to help generate stronger winter storms.  The air masses coming down into the US are still very cold, so an event that might be marginal in December or early January can actually work out for us in February.

[usedtobe]

Today's superensemble mean and the 06Z GEFS ens mean keep plunging the cold air into the west and plains and keep enough of a ridge along the southeast coast to really slow the eastward progression of the cold air into our area.

Here's the temp composite for the analog dates centered on Jan 17. Note all the cold to our west and that the front is just about on us with our 850 temps just slightly above normal.

Two days later our 850 temps are colder than normal and with such an airmass I wouldn't be surprised if the surface temps were even colder than that relative to normal.

However, beyond D13, temps warm a little as it looks like the front sort of stalls near us. The anlogs do offer the potential for light overrunning snow events towards Jan 17-20 if the front does indeed make it through though even then the pattern is not a great one but is better than the one for the next 10 days.

The GEFS ens mean for 324 has high heights over Greenland and low heights near nova scotia which is usually a good thing for winter but it also has low heights extending across the great lakes into hudson bay which suggests to me that there will be clipper type system tracking across the lakes to our north which is not the greatest for gettign a decent snow storm. Still, despite my reservations about the pattern, the changes would sure beat the pattern for the next 10 days which looks pretty horrid. The pattern evolution on the GEFS extended 324hrs and beyond is not too different from the one that gave Winterluvr some snow and left me bereft. Lets hope as we get closer to the time period that we see some signs of more southern stream action.

[mitchnick]

even the CFS2 sees the SE Ridge as evidenced by the 850 JAN map even though today's JAN forecast continues with the colder than normal (still!)

you would think (ok, hope) that being on the southern edge of the cold would give us some decent cold storm chances, but then, that would be too easy wouldn't it

[Wonderdog]

Living in SWVA, right on the KY border, I saw a front take 24 hours to move about 50 miles in the dead of winter. Jackson KY was reporting light snow and 28 and I was near 50 with rain. A day later my winds finally switched. This was about 1990 or so. That se ridge can be a bear to move sometimes.

Yeah one day sure but four? I have never seen that or at least ever been aware of that. I would be very skeptical of any run that showed such a result. That front will probably sweep thru like s_ _ t through a goose.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Yeah one day sure but four? I have never seen that or at least ever been aware of that. I would be very skeptical of any run that showed such a result. That front will probably sweep thru like s_ _ t through a goose.

I think you're being very optimistic about that. You may be correct, but those cold shots can NOT make it here also. I'm going on memory here, but I believe early in 1997, a very cold outbreak occurred in the western plains, very cold into areas like the Dakotas, Neb, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and back into the Rockies. That cold never did come east. It just gradually warmed/lifted out.

It's dropping into the west because something is forcing it there. The same force that brought it there can keep it there too. This is just opinion and memory of disappointment. Someone with more expertise can chime in with more and/or correct me.

[Deck Pic]

Today's superensemble mean and the 06Z GEFS ens mean keep plunging the cold air into the west and plains and keep enough of a ridge along the southeast coast to really slow the eastward progression of the cold air into our area.

Here's the temp composite for the analog dates centered on Jan 17. Note all the cold to our west and that the front is just about on us with our 850 temps just slightly above normal.

Jan_6_analog_2013D11.gif

Two days later our 850 temps are colder than normal and with such an airmass I wouldn't be surprised if the surface temps were even colder than that relative to normal.

Jan_6_analog_2013D13.gif

However, beyond D13, temps warm a little as it looks like the front sort of stalls near us. The anlogs do offer the potential for light overrunning snow events towards Jan 17-20 if the front does indeed make it through though even then the pattern is not a great one but is better than the one for the next 10 days.

The GEFS ens mean for 324 has high heights over Greenland and low heights near nova scotia which is usually a good thing for winter but it also has low heights extending across the great lakes into hudson bay which suggests to me that there will be clipper type system tracking across the lakes to our north which is not the greatest for gettign a decent snow storm. Still, despite my reservations about the pattern, the changes would sure beat the pattern for the next 10 days which looks pretty horrid. The pattern evolution on the GEFS extended 324hrs and beyond is not too different from the one that gave Winterluvr some snow and left me bereft. Lets hope as we get closer to the time period that we see some signs of more southern stream action.

 

 

I think me and you might not see snow in January until the end of the month if at all (other than 1 or 2 - 0.5" glorified cartopper type events...or maybe some 1.5" that changes to driving rain)...Maybe we can get an ice storm though I know most folks hate those...

 

February should be rocking...hopefully I don't bust....I still think DC/DCA ends of with 6-10" for the season...my CWG might be a little high...it would probably require a 4" event (probably in Feb or early March) to get there....It would be real crummy if me and you end up with 3 or 4" for the winter....maybe the Redskins will win today and nobody will care about snow for a week or longer...

[Deck Pic]

GFS has a powerful apps runner at day 10 but the pattern change is delayed...maybe Jan 20-25 is more reasonable as Wes showed...

[Ian]

The worst part of seasonal forecasting is everyone trying to verify for months. Not talking Matt per we as I would swear by his forecast more than most but I don't like this whole idea of predicting storm dates weeks in advance etc. the science just isn't there IMO. February might be rockin but it probably has a good chance to be lame as well. Being in a rut is as important as anything else around here.

[Deck Pic]

The worst part of seasonal forecasting is everyone trying to verify for months. Not talking Matt per we as I would swear by his forecast more than most but I don't like this whole idea of predicting storm dates weeks in advance etc. the science just isn't there IMO. February might be rockin but it probably has a good chance to be lame as well. Being in a rut is as important as anything else around here.

Persistence is huge. Will be right more often than wrong here using it. Not sure why people ignore it so much. We could easily be in a 1948-1956 type rut but we still should be able to eek out a 4" type event most winters. Storm dates are for fun only though I think HM may have some skill at it with his understanding of certain things that are beyond most of us.

[aldie 22]

Funny how gfs had been so dry for many runs for the country but now has been ridiculously wet in the long range for awhile now...change is coming even if it isnt winter precip

[usedtobe]

The worst part of seasonal forecasting is everyone trying to verify for months. Not talking Matt per we as I would swear by his forecast more than most but I don't like this whole idea of predicting storm dates weeks in advance etc. the science just isn't there IMO. February might be rockin but it probably has a good chance to be lame as well. Being in a rut is as important as anything else around here.

I pretty much agree and that is the reason I rarely give a specific date even for a week two storm and instead give a window. When you get beyond two weeks, you're not only guessing at timing of shorter wavelengths but also often can't even be comfortable about the mean wave positions and the slower moving larger scale features.

[ORH_wxman]

Persistence is huge. Will be right more often than wrong here using it. Not sure why people ignore it so much. We could easily be in a 1948-1956 type rut but we still should be able to eek out a 4" type event most winters. Storm dates are for fun only though I think HM may have some skill at it with his understanding of certain things that are beyond most of us.

Knowing climo too is biggest upon all else. I think your PDO stuff was worth more than some gave it credit for. You can still do well in -PDO occasionally, but its not very common.

[Wonderdog]

I think you're being very optimistic about that. You may be correct, but those cold shots can NOT make it here also. I'm going on memory here, but I believe early in 1997, a very cold outbreak occurred in the western plains, very cold into areas like the Dakotas, Neb, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and back into the Rockies. That cold never did come east. It just gradually warmed/lifted out.

It's dropping into the west because something is forcing it there. The same force that brought it there can keep it there too. This is just opinion and memory of disappointment. Someone with more expertise can chime in with more and/or correct me.

 

I agree with your example but I just can't recall a cold front sitting in the Appalacians for three or four days in the winter. My memory however is very suspect on most things.

[Ji]

if this is what we look like at 384..Feb will not be rocking

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.

[BristowWx]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.[/quote

Does blast mean for decent or disaster?

[tmagan]

ECMWF has +15C 850 just south of DC at hour 168.

[PhineasC]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.[/quote

Does blast mean for decent or disaster?

Blast as in blast furnace.

[Ji]

We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack

[psuhoffman]

That's scary. Reminds me of last year when I knew there was no hope because the AO was so positive even when the trough was in the east it was too warm.

if this is what we look like at 384..Feb will not be rocking

[mitchnick]

We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack

 

obviously, all of us here have undeniable obsessive behavior at times re snow but, imho, those that constantly worry/complain/fear losing snow pack seem to have a certifiable OCD

[stormtracker]

Mid February to end of March will be our time. We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall.  Mark my words.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.

At 240 there is a +PNA developing and a -NAO that is moving westward. Cold air looks like it will be squeezed south and east after 240. Prior to this it is a torch.

[Deck Pic]

I pretty much agree and that is the reason I rarely give a specific date even for a week two storm and instead give a window. When you get beyond two weeks, you're not only guessing at timing of shorter wavelengths but also often can't even be comfortable about the mean wave positions and the slower moving larger scale features.

I learned that from you. Outside say 7-8 days to give a window.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Blast as in blast furnace.

Yea it is wall to wall ugly

[Ian]

Persistence is huge. Will be right more often than wrong here using it. Not sure why people ignore it so much. We could easily be in a 1948-1956 type rut but we still should be able to eek out a 4" type event most winters. Storm dates are for fun only though I think HM may have some skill at it with his understanding of certain things that are beyond most of us.

 

Like I said.. not really you. Your forecast is one of the few reasons I still have much hope outside climo for this winter as far as snow goes. The Twitter mets who went cold and snowy locally have been annoying lately though--especially since the writing is already on the wall that they are going to bust. I do think there are probably some periods which tend to have snow, like I could probably say there will be a EC snow event around my b-day most years and it would happen.