January 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[Ian]

The worst part of seasonal forecasting is everyone trying to verify for months. Not talking Matt per we as I would swear by his forecast more than most but I don't like this whole idea of predicting storm dates weeks in advance etc. the science just isn't there IMO. February might be rockin but it probably has a good chance to be lame as well. Being in a rut is as important as anything else around here.

[aldie 22]

Funny how gfs had been so dry for many runs for the country but now has been ridiculously wet in the long range for awhile now...change is coming even if it isnt winter precip

[usedtobe]

The worst part of seasonal forecasting is everyone trying to verify for months. Not talking Matt per we as I would swear by his forecast more than most but I don't like this whole idea of predicting storm dates weeks in advance etc. the science just isn't there IMO. February might be rockin but it probably has a good chance to be lame as well. Being in a rut is as important as anything else around here.

I pretty much agree and that is the reason I rarely give a specific date even for a week two storm and instead give a window. When you get beyond two weeks, you're not only guessing at timing of shorter wavelengths but also often can't even be comfortable about the mean wave positions and the slower moving larger scale features.

[ORH_wxman]

Persistence is huge. Will be right more often than wrong here using it. Not sure why people ignore it so much. We could easily be in a 1948-1956 type rut but we still should be able to eek out a 4" type event most winters. Storm dates are for fun only though I think HM may have some skill at it with his understanding of certain things that are beyond most of us.

Knowing climo too is biggest upon all else. I think your PDO stuff was worth more than some gave it credit for. You can still do well in -PDO occasionally, but its not very common.

[Wonderdog]

I think you're being very optimistic about that. You may be correct, but those cold shots can NOT make it here also. I'm going on memory here, but I believe early in 1997, a very cold outbreak occurred in the western plains, very cold into areas like the Dakotas, Neb, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and back into the Rockies. That cold never did come east. It just gradually warmed/lifted out.

It's dropping into the west because something is forcing it there. The same force that brought it there can keep it there too. This is just opinion and memory of disappointment. Someone with more expertise can chime in with more and/or correct me.

 

I agree with your example but I just can't recall a cold front sitting in the Appalacians for three or four days in the winter. My memory however is very suspect on most things.

[Ji]

if this is what we look like at 384..Feb will not be rocking

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.

[BristowWx]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.[/quote

Does blast mean for decent or disaster?

[tmagan]

ECMWF has +15C 850 just south of DC at hour 168.

[PhineasC]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.[/quote

Does blast mean for decent or disaster?

Blast as in blast furnace.

[Ji]

We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack

[psuhoffman]

That's scary. Reminds me of last year when I knew there was no hope because the AO was so positive even when the trough was in the east it was too warm.

if this is what we look like at 384..Feb will not be rocking

[mitchnick]

We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack

 

obviously, all of us here have undeniable obsessive behavior at times re snow but, imho, those that constantly worry/complain/fear losing snow pack seem to have a certifiable OCD

[stormtracker]

Mid February to end of March will be our time. We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall.  Mark my words.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

Sounds like the new Euro is a real blast.

At 240 there is a +PNA developing and a -NAO that is moving westward. Cold air looks like it will be squeezed south and east after 240. Prior to this it is a torch.

[Midlo Snow Maker]

Blast as in blast furnace.

Yea it is wall to wall ugly

[Ian]

Persistence is huge. Will be right more often than wrong here using it. Not sure why people ignore it so much. We could easily be in a 1948-1956 type rut but we still should be able to eek out a 4" type event most winters. Storm dates are for fun only though I think HM may have some skill at it with his understanding of certain things that are beyond most of us.

 

Like I said.. not really you. Your forecast is one of the few reasons I still have much hope outside climo for this winter as far as snow goes. The Twitter mets who went cold and snowy locally have been annoying lately though--especially since the writing is already on the wall that they are going to bust. I do think there are probably some periods which tend to have snow, like I could probably say there will be a EC snow event around my b-day most years and it would happen.

[Ian]

Mid February to end of March will be our time. We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall.  Mark my words.

 

40" of snow?

 

Don't forget sun angle..

[Yeoman]

We'll get into a nice pattern and probably end up slightly above normal snowfall.  Mark my words.

 

Above normal for March?

[WinterWxLuvr]

We all know its going to get warm. It's not like we have to worry about losing snowpack

Some have snow. 14th straight day here. My back yard 2 minutes ago. Time for it to melt if nothing is going to cover it. Getting nasty.

If the latest models are right, it will be gone soon.

[QVectorman]

I posted this in the NE forum but it applies here.

The GWO analogs eluded to this second warm up all the way back on Dec. 14. It will be short lived with the warmest air being tempered by cooler/colder air arriving in the Jan 15-19 range moving into the Jan 20-25 range with much colder air. Based on GWO and strat. analogs I'm guessing the coldest core of the 850 temps behind the short waves for the Jan 15-19 time frame will remain warmer than -15C then be reinforced with a coldest core of -15 to -25C for Jan 21-25 with a core of cold in the -25 to -30C range possibly as cold as -36C at some point for Jan 25-30. With -33C sneaking over the northern plains or GLKS or NE. Of course the cores of the coldest air will probably remain north of the border but still one can extrapolate what kind of 850 temps would be making down to the central US with those types of 850 temps just north of border.  With shortwaves arriving with more cold air for Jan 24-27 and Jan 27-29 and Feb 1-5. Though it appears the last week of Jan into Feb again would be the coldest air. Of course as stated before the caveat to these is how strong is the southerly flow ahead of these shortwaves that will also produce a spike in temps a day or two before the wave. So a strong wave will have a strong flow and could really spike temps for a day or two before it's arrive too. 

 

 

Actually I made a mistake when forecasting back in Dec. and I hate to flip flop...a big pet peeve of mine but since part of this is in testing stage I had conflicting strat and GWO signals for the 10-13 time frame and I assumed that the strat signal for cold would over whelm the GWO signal for warmth and the cold air would dominate for that time frame. But the GFS seems to be hinting that the GWO will dominate instead for that time frame. Which would change it to warm from Jan 8-10 then a fall in 850 temps for 1 or 2 days after peak in 850 temps then a spike in 850 temps Jan 11-13 which would put us back on track to a fall in 850 temps 1 or 2 days after that which lines up with the Jan 15-19 time cold pocket that I have forecasted previously. I still stand by a shortwave tracking through the central/eastern US although it may be weak Jan 10-11 as I stated last month. Which again since this is still in testing and working out kinks...so the GWO signal that I used that shows up for Jan 8-10 and Jan 11-13 may be a teleconnection that produces pattern (HP cell over the SE) that forces a wave to track west of the Mississippi and into Canada putting the east in a region of strong southerly flow that ends up producing warmer 850 temps. Since both waves for those periods on the GFS appear to stay west of the MS and track northward. 

 

QVectorman, on 14 December 2012 - 04:54 PM, said:

With the newest GWO numbers today the latest analogs indicate a 15-20F warm up in sfc temps Jan 3-Jan 6 compared to prior days highs across Midwest or NE (the Dec. 31-Jan 3 cold episode) and analogs suggest a stair stepped 15-20F temperature fall behind the warm up 1-2 days after that, meaning another spell of colder air Jan 5-8.

I extended my outlook through Jan 8 on Dec. 14. I still feel comfortable with those dates and with the newest GWO analogs and latest 10 and 30 mb temp forecast it appears the time frame between Jan 8-10 will see a warm up over the east with a short wave moving through the east Jan 10-11 with cooler air dropping in behind it for Jan 10-13 across the MW/GLKS and then pockets of cooler air arriving Jan 15-19 time frame for the east followed by a second reinforcement of cooler air Jan 20-24.

[WEATHER53]

Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December.

[nw baltimore wx]

Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December.

To be fair, we DID have a change since early and mid-December. It just wasn't the change or pattern that we wanted.

[clueless]

Since people are discussing the errors that they felt are made I would suggest the greatest error, this year and past, is always jumping onto the 10-15 day out and then consistently pushing it back and never addressing, for example, that it's been just 10-15 days away since mid December.

Wes is good at 10 days. zwyts may be spot on, again, with his forecast. I just think many want to hype possible sn events because they will be deemed brilliant by the demos. Very tough when you say it is not going to snow, or of it does, it will be a piddling event.

[cmock25]

Ok, my Redskins are eliminated. One of you better find me a snowstorm!

[usedtobe]

At 240 there is a +PNA developing and a -NAO that is moving westward. Cold air looks like it will be squeezed south and east after 240. Prior to this it is a torch.

The 240 hr Euro ens mean has warmer look at 240 hrs than the operational and does not make it look assured how far south and east the cold air will get. Lots of cold for the central states but the cold struggles to get here. The cold Jan forecasts to me look like they are in real trouble since the cold early in the month has underperformed and the warm this coming week looks really warm.

[ACFD FIREMAN]

The 240 hr Euro ens mean has warmer look at 240 hrs than the operational and does not make it look assured how far south and east the cold air will get. Lots of cold for the central states but the cold struggles to get here. The cold Jan forecasts to me look like they are in real trouble since the cold early in the month has underperformed and the warm this coming week looks really warm.

The GFES also show the same at 240 but the ridge holds strong. The cold is always delayed if not denied in the long range. Definitely shaping up to be a dissapointing January.

[mitchnick]

DEC wasted now a JAN of any consequence for winter wx lovers is in serious doubt if the mr models are to be believed

feels like he mid-70's again

hopefully next year will be better, but the -PDO is really killing our chances

[Ji]

How is dec wasted? We got 4 inches and a white Christmas . January is a disaster

[mitchnick]

How is dec wasted? We got 4 inches and a white Christmas . January is a disaster

 

not worthy of serious reply