snowfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:12 AM, mitchnick said: talk about too close for comfort another 20+ miles please you and I could chuckle at the northerners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 These maps def should be banned....but always good for a laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:12 AM, ravensrule said: If your up this late it is a good sign. I'm now going to bed, I'll see the euro tomorrow morning along with the 06Z guidance. Hopefully all will shift north and trend oclder because of getting more lifting and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:23 AM, usedtobe said: I'm now going to bed, I'll see the euro tomorrow morning along with the 06Z guidance. Hopefully all will shift north and trend oclder because of getting more lifting and precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:16 AM, Ian said: Now we need to get off the edge of the precip. Baby steps. north trends only occur when we don't want them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I know you all want this to move north terribly, however, there's a thing called the Polar Vortex, and it is not in the north's favor. At least, not as it stands now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:26 AM, Ji said: north trends only occur when we don't want them too if anyone is due it's us. we got this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:26 AM, VirginiaHippie said: I know you all want this to move north terribly, however, there's a thing called the Polar Vortex, and it is not in the north's favor. At least, not as it stands now. 25 to 50 miles is a move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:17 AM, bjohnson102184 said: These maps def should be banned....but always good for a laugh I gotta stop staying up this late, you start seeing things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:26 AM, VirginiaHippie said: I know you all want this to move north terribly, however, there's a thing called the Polar Vortex, and it is not in the north's favor. At least, not as it stands now. pv has been there on the models all week, it's just that they have a tendency to have it too strong and as the system approaches, they adjust north heck, this could end up being too north for DCA/BWI, so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:29 AM, mitchnick said: pv has been there on the models all week, it's just that they have a tendency to have it too strong and as the system approaches, they adjust north heck, this could end up being too north for DCA/BWI, so who knows I sure hope not, Wes is even really hoping for it. Would appear we are in a good spot, lets see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Monday's vort pass is still looking fine too. Much to be resolved there as well but could be a nice freshening up of our snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:28 AM, yoda said: 25 to 50 miles is a move north Yes, the problem is that no one ever seems to be satisfied. The PV being where it is, will only allow it so far north. MD, DE, and lower NJ might could get a snowstorm, but I highly doubt much further north than that, if at all. Just my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:30 AM, Bob Chill said: Monday's vort pass is still looking fine too. Much to be resolved there as well but could be a nice freshening up of our snowpack. Definitely, looks good, and bombs it on the coast. The neg tilt is good looking, I'd want it to dig more obviously because the precip developing over us is risky business. Still got 5-6 days to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:30 AM, Bob Chill said: Monday's vort pass is still looking fine too. Much to be resolved there as well but could be a nice freshening up of our snowpack. lol whatever falls melts saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:33 AM, Ji said: lol whatever falls melts saturday Snowpack will overcome bl issues on Sat. Models haven't picked up on it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:27 AM, Ian said: if anyone is due it's us. we got this. No, you're still paying back from 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:37 AM, Bob Chill said: Snowpack will overcome bl issues on Sat. Models haven't picked up on it yet. snowpack should help us max the cold. widespread subzero? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 For those discussing temps on Saturday. GFS says "Thou shall giveth.....thou shall taketh away". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 The GFS post 240hrs hints at a little more of a split flow and lower heights across the south. Also a couple big events to watch 27th-30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:44 AM, zwyts said: Congrats to Ian and others who stuck with this....I punted long ago..biggest problem with GFS is heaviest snow is midday......This could be real time and location dependent in terms of accumulation... congrats on Ku Jan 28-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:31 AM, VirginiaHippie said: Yes, the problem is that no one ever seems to be satisfied. The PV being where it is, will only allow it so far north. MD, DE, and lower NJ might could get a snowstorm, but I highly doubt much further north than that, if at all. Just my two cents. You doubt it because its not good for your back yard. The storm is basically in the same position it has been its just stronger and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:44 AM, zwyts said: Congrats to Ian and others who stuck with this....I punted long ago..biggest problem with GFS is heaviest snow is midday......This could be real time and location dependent in terms of accumulation... Still a way to go if we want to score for sure but that it's even on the table is a plus. We don't do well living on the edge tho so need to resolve that maybe most of all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:50 AM, Ian said: Still a way to go if we want to score for sure but that it's even on the table is a plus. We don't do well living on the edge tho so need to resolve that maybe most of all. Would be much more excited living down by EZF. But even so, pretty impressive jump for one run across the board, and so close to an event. Still more excited at this point for next Tues/Wed. Midday high Wed in the low 20s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 On 1/16/2013 at 4:50 AM, clskinsfan said: You doubt it because its not good for your back yard. The storm is basically in the same position it has been its just stronger and wetter. Not at all, actually. And next time, if I want the snarky attitude, I will ask for it. I am merely stating what is most likely at the time. It can trend north. I did not say it couldn't. But if it is going to trend a fair amount north, the PV will need to weaken a good clip, and that is possible, but doesn't appear likely *at this moment.* Tomorrow morning may bring a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Standing in the backyard it feels like it should be snowing or at least a lot of snow mixed. But it's all rain, down to 34.8F but 94% rh. On the bandwagon for some 20's highs in DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Some ice in Damascus this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Good bit of spread with the GEFS but if we can close out Jan with a pac driven long duration aob normal and then go into phase 8 to kick off Feb then things are "potentially" looking ok for the remainder of our good climo window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 I know most focus on things that effect our area, but since I ski and am always on the lookout for where a powder dump is going on, I have noticed the Euro has been caving to the GFS lately on just about everything by about day 7. At day 10 the euro and gfs will have different solutions then by day 7 time and time again all over north america the euro is caving. I have never seen it so consistently off compared to the GFS for a long stretch like this. I wonder what about this pattern is causing it to be basically a train wreck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 16, 2013 Share Posted January 16, 2013 Sounds as if the cold isn't going to be as cold or last as long as we once thought..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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