mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:14 AM, ddweatherman said: There really isn't a ton of agreement right now between the euro, gfs, nam, and ggem, and to some extent uk. Whatever, just wear your jammies inside out and see ya at 12z. but won't everyone see the stains then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:16 AM, mitchnick said: but won't everyone see the stains then? double it up, but they're from the gfs anyway so who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:17 AM, ddweatherman said: double it up, but they're from the gfs anyway so who cares. they don't call it good for s*** for nothin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:18 AM, zwyts said: not so fast Euro hasn't been at its best lately, idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:19 AM, zwyts said: euro does your thing...brings that secondary wave north hmmm, I'm still waiting on the Accuwx mos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:19 AM, zwyts said: euro does your thing...brings that secondary wave north It's wrong and outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The first wave is where we are watching now, but the second is close according to the euro, we really gotta keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:24 AM, zwyts said: maybe...it isn't inconceivable that we get a FROPA without much fanfare like we do 99% of the time...it probably makes more sense than a rapid temp drop and heavy snow hours later Rather than speculate on it I'd rather just check out the next few models for the fropa and the energy up the coast behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:24 AM, zwyts said: maybe...it isn't inconceivable that we get a FROPA without much fanfare like we do 99% of the time...it probably makes more sense than a rapid temp drop and heavy snow hours later see, all you needed was a little more sugar in our tea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro ends up. Giving DC .02 of snow after all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:28 AM, zwyts said: i'd rather discuss the probability that nothing good happens..... My fault, its late, I'm captain obvious I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 cold is no big deal on this run we'll see if it allows the GOM system come further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:31 AM, mitchnick said: cold is no big deal on this run we'll see if it allows the GOM system come further north The cold periods modeled by the GFS and Euro are completely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro in mid January has -5 850 temps but surface temp mid 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Was just about to mock the Nogaps, but the Euro looks similar @ hr 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:35 AM, Amped said: Was just about to mock the Nogaps, but the Euro looks similar @ hr 144. What's it show at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:36 AM, Ji said: What's it show at 144 Mostly Clear skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:36 AM, Ji said: What's it show at 144 On 1/12/2013 at 6:36 AM, Ji said: What's it show at 144 Closed H5 over Dallas. It will probably still get crushed. But it is tugging moisture north into MS and GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro looks really warm through 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:32 AM, ddweatherman said: The cold periods modeled by the GFS and Euro are completely different. no, the euro is jumping around all over the place this was 12Z at Day 7 and this run looks far from that (and we're 12 hours later) http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011112!!/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:42 AM, mitchnick said: no, the euro is jumping around all over the place this was 12Z at Day 7 and this run looks far from that http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!168!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2013011112!!/ Thankfully through this I can hold out Tuesday hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Euro also backed off on dropping the cold air south. Only slightly below normal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:44 AM, zwyts said: it is rain, but ut has a nice coastal at 180 hours....moisture laden...that skims us....I like seeing that....are we supposed to be in some awesome pattern in 7 days?....don't we have to step down and up and down for a bit?... No it appears to be a total flip. No storm at 180 was ever suppose to give us rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 The GFS stuff would have my backyard with a high of 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 7:02 AM, zwyts said: we dont know the timing or the severity but at least there seems to be some evidence accumulating that real cold is coming...the euro has a 7pm temp of around 3F at ORD when the run ends...that is the kind of cold that has you and me giddy if it can get down here...we'll see what happens And maybe some storm potential around the 22nd. GFS and Euro both have a beautiful ridge out west teaming up with a nice block. Could be a nice window to get something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Sorry just have to share even though it's from pay site since they adjust their contours and post the min. temp...this might be once in life time run to see a forecast run with -40.2C 850's just north of the border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:13 AM, Ian said: When's the last time we got good snow from a frontal wave? Dec 00 or 01? I can recall one that came in and dropped about 3". It stuck around for a while too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Everyone root for the Packers and Seahawks today... If they win the NFC champ game will be in Green Bay on the 23rd. IF the polar vortex drops like modeled it will rival the Frozen Tundra game of the 70's with wind chills in the -40 to -60 range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 1:28 PM, Benchmark said: Everyone root for the Packers and Seahawks today... If they win the AFC champ game will be in Green Bay on the 23rd. IF the polar vortex drops like modeled it will rival the Frozen Tundra game of the 70's with wind chills in the -40 to -60 range! That polar vortex is way more powerful than any of us thought! It will have caused the Packers and Seahawks to shift conferences! NFC to AFC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 6:19 AM, zwyts said: euro does your thing...brings that secondary wave north Trouble is if it comes north it probably will be too warm. I'm not yet that excited. I see the pattern getting us back to climo in terms of snow chances but still less than climo for a significant snowstorm at least for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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