TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:55 AM, zwyts said: It is probably wrong, but it would pretty awesome/humorous if we are getting raked with +SN at noon on Tuesday You're right, would be a random daytime snowstorm underway, wow according to that. I mean probably unlikely, but we'd all be going nuts for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:46 AM, Ian said: yeah.. this might be one of the best model runs we've seen all year since it's closeishnow we just need to hold meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:59 AM, stormtracker said: meh If it happens we meet at the Fireplace for koktails Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Of course there goes the GGEM, long duration of precip with the two wave set-up, its bullish on the wave that the GFS takes just s of us around 108. Note: I know its the GGEM, and has a 90% probability of being wrong, just running it by now that Matt has become aware of SN+ potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 jyo gets screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:02 AM, Yeoman said: If it happens we meet at the Fireplace for koktails I hope it happens just so I can see you walk up in the Fireplace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:55 AM, zwyts said: It is probably wrong, but it would pretty awesome/humorous if we are getting raked with +SN at noon on Tuesday You know times are bad when getting snow at noon in mid January is the ultimate triumph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:04 AM, stormtracker said: I hope it happens just so I can see you walk up in the Fireplace. Lol.. I like my chances.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 4:55 AM, zwyts said: It is probably wrong, but it would pretty awesome/humorous if we are getting raked with +SN at noon on Tuesdaywinterwxluvr and p005 are bound to have their day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:10 AM, zwyts said: I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event Prep the sandbags? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:10 AM, zwyts said: I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event Yes, its definitely easier for us in our peak climo so it bears watching. You'd even get thumped, but BWI over to Kenny look good via this run in particular. It is pretty QPF loaded relatively speaking, so not a sleeper by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:10 AM, zwyts said: I think for the usual spots a real thump...looks wintry mixy for me...I am not taking it too literally but this is not some anemic easterly winder...so i am certainly going to pay attention...It is mid January...sh-it like this can happen...someone can get a couple/few quick inches from a random event Except this doesn't look like a very quick event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 this could help undo the myth that it needs to be cold to snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:16 AM, Ian said: this could help undo the myth that it needs to be cold to snow as well Nothing will undo that myth. It comes back year after year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:17 AM, zwyts said: I think anything is worth paying attention to when you have a bubble of high pressure to our WNW where we usually have a 952mb low Indead.. Good times are forthcoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'd been watching this for a while as many of gfs ensemble members had this scenario while the op was amped and warm but hard to believe it would happen 2 days after hiiting 70 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Fog is gonna keep high temps down tomorrow I bet...Sunday may be the only silly warm day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Look at this sounding for BWI at the 75 hr GFS that's a ton of dry air that causes the evap. cooling never seen that before 1017. 73. 2.8 -1.2 344.1 3.3 1000. 213. 2.3 -3.7 348.8 6.3 975. 418. 1.1 -6.4 351.2 8.4 950. 626. -0.1 -9.6 347.7 8.9 925. 839. -0.3 -15.4 336.4 8.2 900. 1058. 0.6 -23.0 319.9 8.0 850. 1517. 1.6 -35.7 283.3 9.2 800. 2006. 2.2 -31.3 259.2 13.1 750. 2526. 1.7 -27.7 252.6 18.3 700. 3079. -0.7 -25.1 258.1 22.5 650. 3668. -2.8 -13.6 254.8 30.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:20 AM, Ji said: I'd been watching this for a while as many of gfs ensemble members had this scenario while the op was amped and warm but hard to believe it would happen 2 days after hiiting 70the euro control had this at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:25 AM, ddweatherman said: Not saying it will mean much that the warmth may underperform, but it would help with road accums if we got greedy. According to matt though, we wouldn't have too much trouble with our SN+. And mitch, that's pretty cool, and actually believable in the scheme of things. you're such a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:27 AM, zwyts said: I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites Oh I know, trust me. GFS is a nice run and all, but I know where you stand. And Ian, funny thing is, my maps usually verify awfully well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 GFS soundings have BWI as all snow with temps 32.5-33.5 during the event this is wacky, I've never seen this before a surface that you can't roast hot dogs during falling precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:27 AM, zwyts said: I'm not saying any of us will see snow at all...this run just shows how we could do it...it could be completely wacko...Dr No will probably bitchslap it in 30 minites Dr. No was real close to doing this last night and 12z today, at least at BWI the tip off is that all the models keep it suppressed i.e. south of NE, and started showing that almost 48 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:30 AM, mitchnick said: Dr. No was real close to doing this last night and 12z today, at least at BWI the tip off is that all the models keep it suppressed i.e. south of NE, and started showing that almost 48 hrs ago Seeing a nice (nice meaning <78 degrees) boundary layer relatively speaking, is something we are not used to for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 I'm going all in. This is our 2 year streak breaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 one other things the GFS scraps DCA/BWI on south again at 108 hrs and it's cold enough for snow then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:40 AM, zwyts said: It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east On 1/12/2013 at 5:40 AM, zwyts said: It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east I can tell the past year has really worn on you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 It's shocking to see snow on the models in January where the average high is now 59 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 12, 2013 Share Posted January 12, 2013 On 1/12/2013 at 5:40 AM, zwyts said: It isnt mine and your favorite setup which is nice.....a 1008mb low over Detroit, a 1016 mb low over the south that gets sheared out, a primary 996mb low over Charleston WV and a 500mb low over Altoona with a 1020 dome of HP over cape cod and moving east if it snows, I don't care what's on the fookin' weather maps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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