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January 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Midlo Snow Maker

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Well January 2010 sucked around here up until the bitter end. December with our KU storm rocked and one week in February ruled with 2 KU storms. It only takes 1-2 solid weeks around here to make a winter. Outside of a 2 week period 09 and 10 winter was lame. Can we get a good week or 2, or a sneaky event? Jury is still out for this winter.

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Well January 2010 sucked around here up until the bitter end. December with our KU storm rocked and one week in February ruled with 2 KU storms. It only takes 1-2 solid weeks around here to make a winter. Outside of a 2 week period 09 and 10 winter was lame. Can we get a good week or 2, or a sneaky event? Jury is still out for this winter.

 

JAN that year was well below normal the 1st 13 days and looked nothing like this month so that offers little solace except to say it ain't over until it's over

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JI, we can still get a KU this year. Its a not over for a longtime. Who knows what February will hold?

 

fishing for a KU in what looks like a less than perfect year is probably not wise.

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sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro

Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science......

9 Ninos

3 Neutrals directly following NINO's

2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's

1 weak nina following a NINO

The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89.....

2009-10 - NINO

1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO

2002-03 -NINO

1957-58 - NINO

1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO

1978-79 - Neutral after NINO

1966-67 - Neutral after NINO

1963-64 - NINO

1986-87 - NINO

1965-66 - NINO

1982-83 - NINO

1987-88 -NINO

1959-60 - Neutral after NINO

1977-78 - NINO

1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

And next winter is already over right as we go back to Nina?

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sometimes I think people overthink the seasonal stuff for DC metro

 

Here are our top 15 snow seasons since 1950...this is not rocket science......

 

9 Ninos

3 Neutrals directly following NINO's

2 neutrals following neutrals that followed multi-year NINO's

1 weak nina following a NINO

 

The word Nina is mentioned ONE time (1995-96) which was a weak Nina following a SEVEN year warm event including a preceding Nino...the previous Nina was 1988-89.....

 

 

2009-10 - NINO

1995-96 - Weak Nina after NINO

2002-03 -NINO

1957-58 - NINO

1960-61 - Neutral after Neutral after 2 year NINO

1978-79 - Neutral after NINO

1966-67 - Neutral after NINO

1963-64 - NINO

1986-87 - NINO

1965-66 - NINO

1982-83 - NINO

1987-88 -NINO

1959-60 - Neutral after NINO

1977-78 - NINO

1981-82 - Neutral after Neutral after 3 year NINO

 

Here are some things you will NOT find on that list above

 

Moderate to Strong Ninas - ZERO

Neutrals following NINAS - ZERO

 

there isn't any reason to overthink these things too much in DC...our only hope was a NINO and most likely a moderate - strong event....once it became apparent that we were having a neutral or very weak Nino following a 2-year Nina it was a NO BRAINER that we werent getting a big snow winter....we arent getting a big snow winter...sorry...It isnt happening and the only way we are getting a KU is if we get the dummy end of a 40N special....we arent getting flushed with a KU....

Nice post and even nino years the chances of getting more snow than normal is only 50%, of course when you do it's usually way more than average. I think the facebook crowd makes forecasts based more on getting hits and being sensationalistic than on climo. People tend to forget that most years yield less tha normal snow.

The euro ensemble mean at D+10 still looks pretty bad for snow and cold lovers. Looks like the great storm attractor would be up towards the lakes.

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Nice post and even nino years the chances of getting more snow than normal is only 50%, of course when you do it's usually way more than average. I think the facebook crowd makes forecasts based more on getting hits and being sensationalistic than on climo. People tend to forget that most years yield less tha normal snow.

The euro ensemble mean at D+10 still looks pretty bad for snow and cold lovers. Looks like the great storm attractor would be up towards the lakes.

 

I apparently have a reputation on Twitter as hating snow because I never am that positive lately. Goes to show you how the social media crowd talks up weather locally.

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Since Dec 26, the avg high temp at my home has been 38.11. I can live with that. What has been absent is the precip. One day with measurable precip and it was only about 0.1-0.2. This is usually what gets us. What good are normal or even below normal temps if there's no precip? I know it's a different story beyond the fall line, but there are plenty of us here west of it.

Also, I don't know why everyone gets their panties in a wad over 10 day forecasts. One of these days somebody is going to actually admit that it can't be done with accuracy. And why is everyone still harping on the Euro? It's a little iffy trying to claim that it's not getting out performed by the GFS lately. Of course, later today when the Euro weeklies come out, you'll see 50 posts about them if they're cold, and 200 if they are warm. As if it matters one iota what they show.

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still  not good wes right?

 

 

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

 

 

I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

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I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

It's still not a good look for us and would leave us above with above normal temps until a few days after D+11 and even then it looks like the front would stall pretty close to us. The AK ridge is nice but the southern end of the ridge is a big problem. The actually positive anomaly associated with it and associated ridge are still way too far west so the mean trough remains well to our west which keeps us with above normal heights and keeps the storm track to our north and west. The euro ens mean at 240 hours also has the same general warm look through the 6-10 day period. It is less aggressive bringing cold east than the operational euro. I'm not going to post any maps as I'll be doing an article tomorrow.

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Hi Guys,

 

I am traveling to DC for a wedding  Jan 16 - 18th - do you see any widespread cold or storm for that timeframe?  I realize that it is a long way out, but down here in NC most posters are feeling that the cold will head our way around Jan 20th or later.

 

Sorry for the "IMBY" post, but I haven't been following DC weather and I thought you fine folks might have some insights!

 

Thanks a bunch-

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I'm not Wes but "nope", we're still in the red on that map

I have to admit it's hard to believe we have that ridge in AK and a ridge in Greenland (-NAO) and the SE ridge is still there in force

otoh, there are some pretty decent winter analog years listed, but that's gotten us no where so far this year

 

Can someone explain what a mean centered on 1/18 means.  I just assumed it meant the pattern would look that way on 1/18.  Then I looked at one of the dates, 1/18/09 because I remembered it.  I don't think it looks like much of a match compared to what is shown.

post-178-0-54487600-1357575922_thumb.jpg

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Can someone explain what a mean centered on 1/18 means.  I just assumed it meant the pattern would look that way on 1/18.  Then I looked at one of the dates, 1/18/09 because I remembered it.  I don't think it looks like much of a match compared to what is shown.

A D+11 centered mean takes the forecasts for D+9,D+10, D+11, D+12 and D+13 and then averages the pattern for those 5 days and then compares it to the historic 5 day means. The reason at that time range you use a 5 day mean is that the smaller scale features tend to get cancelled out leaving you with a picture of the mean pattern of the larger scale slower moving easier to forecast features. You're not trying to forecast the timing of individual waves which at such time ranges is almost impossible. Instead you are looking for whether the temp pattern for the period looks to be a warm or cold one. This winter, the D+11 means have been pretty good overall. The means are especially useful when it seems to stay the same for a number of days. In Dec of 2009 and Feb 2010 it was showing a really good pattern for getting a snowstorm for mulitple days before the big snowstorms. This year, the mean has only showed a decent pattern (not even a good one for I95 during one short stretch, when you got your snow. Otherwise the pattern has really been bad. Right now the models have been onto the coming warmth this week for quite awhile. They now show a cold pattern for the plains but one still not very good for us.

P.s. it also using multiple model runs for the mean.

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A D+11 centered mean takes the forecasts for D+9,D+10, D+11, D+12 and D+13 and then averages the pattern for those 5 days and then compares it to the historic 5 day means. The reason at that time range you use a 5 day mean is that the smaller scale features tend to get cancelled out leaving you with a picture of the mean pattern of the larger scale slower moving easier to forecast features. You're not trying to forecast the timing of individual waves which at such time ranges is almost impossible. Instead you are looking for whether the temp pattern for the period looks to be a warm or cold one. This winter, the D+11 means have been pretty good overall. The means are especially useful when it seems to stay the same for a number of days. In Dec of 2009 and Feb 2010 it was showing a really good pattern for getting a snowstorm for mulitple days before the big snowstorms. This year, the mean has only showed a decent pattern (not even a good one for I95 during one short stretch, when you got your snow. Otherwise the pattern has really been bad. Right now the models have been onto the coming warmth this week for quite awhile. They now show a cold pattern for the plains but one still not very good for us.

P.s. it also using multiple model runs for the mean.

 

Thanks Wes.  So that's a forecast pattern for Jan 18.  What I don't get is why 2009, Jan 18 is listed as an analog match.  Seems that that was a completely different setup on the east coast.

 

Anyway, you'd almost think that the GFS becomes a little bit interesting in the 180+ time range (12z).

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