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December 26th - 27th Blizzard Part 4


Powerball

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Seems weather offices are liberally using the "blizzard" warning this year.

Seems to be the case. Haven't heard or seen anything that would warrant a blizzard warning. I know it's quite open in areas that are seeing this storm and can easily make travel difficult. But when I think blizzard I know we all pretty much think of the GHD blizzard...

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The first time i have paid attention to winter storm since winter 2007-08.

What will we get 2 or 3 inches.

LOL :ee:

Hey Torontonian. Nice to hear from your again. I'm sure you got sucked in by GHD 2011 only to have your heart crushed. It's part of the Toronto snow weenie experience. :)

I think we'll do better than 2-3" but not much better.

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It will be interesting to see the final numbers. it looks like a lot of Ohio, especially western part, busted hard.

Seems weather offices are liberally using the "blizzard" warning this year.

Yeah its looking like it won't be nearly as bad as originally thought... about 20 miles southeast of Toledo they have close to 6-7", Findlay has 7" according to some friends, and I'm sitting in BG with close to 5 by my best estimate. Toledo/Defiance and west will bust hard... there's a pretty ridiculous gradient along I-75 here.

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Snow is expanding northward at a snails pace right now. Column really taking its time to saturate. There may be some flurries right along Lk Ontario. I don't think we'll waste time once it does get started. There are some 30 dbz specks showing up over the lake that are ready to slide on up.

Per Harrisale's cam, flake size looks decent. No pixie dust.

About 30 dbz over my house right now. Flakes are definitely a good size. Would guess 1.5-2cm so far. Will do a more accurate measurement in a little bit

Live stream IMBY: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/harrisale

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Checking MTO cams, there are some 25 dbz+ returns over Mississauga that seem to be producing no ground truth. We're already an hour or so late compared to when the model consensus began the snow. Can't have this continue too much longer.

Maybe this will turn into Toronto's biggest virga storm in years.

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Hey Torontonian. Nice to hear from your again. I'm sure you got sucked in by GHD 2011 only to have your heart crushed. It's part of the Toronto snow weenie experience. :)

I think we'll do better than 2-3" but not much better.

Still check in but nothing happens around here weather wise.

Must be why the natives settled here centuries ago.

Aside from winter 2007-08 nada. :whistle:

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Still check in but nothing happens around here weather wise.

Must be why the natives settled here centuries ago.

Aside from winter 2007-08 nada. :whistle:

You know, there's probably a lot of truth to that. The Natives and then the first european explorers likely discovered that this region was sheltered from the extremes that prevail in pretty much the rest of the lower lakes and St. Lawrence valley. In an age before central heating, it was probably a blessing.

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI

703 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

.UPDATE...

AS OF 630 PM...MOST OF THE SNOWFALL REPORTS HAVE THUS FAR BEEN IN

THE 3 TO 6 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. OF CONCERN IS THE

SOLID 5 TO 6 INCH REPORTS ALREADY RECEIVED ACROSS EASTERN

OAKLAND...MACOMB AND ST CLAIR COUNTIES. THE MID LEVEL

DEFORMATION...WHILE WEAKENING...SHOULD REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY

OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z.

SATELLITE/RADAR COMPOSIT ALSO SUGGEST A GOOD FEED OF ATLANTIC

MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WHICH IS ALWAYS CONCERNING

IN THESE TYPE OF SYSTEMS. GIVEN THE EXPECTATION FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 3

HOURS OF GOOD LIFT AND CONSIDERING THE REPORTS ALREADY

RECEIVED...THE ADVISORY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING ACROSS

MACOMB...ST CLAIR AND SANILAC COUNTIES AS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6

TO 9 INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE

OVERNIGHT...THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IDEAL LAKE

ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE LAKE HURON SHORELINE FROM PORT SANILAC DOWN

TO PORT HURON WHICH COULD CERTAINLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR TWO ONTO

THE SYSTEM SNOWFALL.

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Eh, I think the blizzard warnings were justified in Indiana, especially considering the heavy travel day. That type of wording is bound to get more attention than a run of the mill (God I'm starting to hate that phrase) Winter Storm Warning. Did a review of obs and IND, MIE, BMG all flirted with blizzard criteria, and keep in mind that is only a few sites out of a warning area covering thousands of square miles so the sampling is not great. Not everything has to be the blizzard of 78 or GHD. Now, it may be another story in different areas.

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