NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 rain/mix/snow line advancing north - might start as a mix in the immediate NYC metro http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 rain/mix/snow line advancing north - might start as a mix in the immediate NYC metro http://www.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?animate=true&location=USDC0001 Intellicast radar is famous for showing rain when its really snowing or vise versa lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 rain/mix/snow line advancing north - might start as a mix in the immediate NYC metro http://www.intellica...cation=USDC0001 Intellicast is not very accurate for determining a R/S line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Radar w/ precip types. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WXTYPE/loop25ne.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 23/20 here... 25/19 here on the east side of the county. Interesting too see the cooler obs and dewpts. in northern NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 For folks out to our west. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2234 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH...PARTS OF CNTRL/WRN/NRN PA...SWRN NY CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 261640Z - 262245Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEWD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...A BAND OF STRONG/DEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE ERN CONUS WILL SHIFT NEWD THROUGH THE DAY IN TANDEM WITH THE MOTION OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. AS THE ASCENT MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COLDER/DEEPER SUBFREEZING LAYER PER REGIONAL 12Z RAOBS...INCREASED CHANCES FOR HEAVY SNOW WILL OCCUR INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM N-CNTRL OH EWD ACROSS CNTRL PA AND NWD INTO SWRN NY. THE HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MOST LIKELY AFTER 18Z OVER N-CNTRL OH INTO NWRN PA AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NEWD TOWARD SWRN NY AND CNTRL/N-CNTRL PA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE ASCENT WILL ALIGN WITH DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES ENCOMPASSING DEPTHS OF AROUND 50 MB CENTERED BETWEEN THE 600- AND 500-MB LEVELS...WHICH WILL OVERLIE ISOTHERMAL LAYERS ABOVE THE 900-MB LEVEL. THESE FACTORS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH AND SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR. ALSO...NARROW ELEVATED CAPE LAYERS FEATURING MEAGER BUOYANCY COULD SUPPORT A MODEST CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT TO PRECIPITATION RATES. A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL RATES. ..COHEN.. 12/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Intellicast is not very accurate for determining a R/S line.. this shows the same as intellicast - you are wrong plus we are up to 32.6 here by the time the precip reaches the ground will be in the 34 - 38 degree range http://www.meteo.psu...E/loop25ne.html precip still hours away moving north very slowly http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=PHL&type=TR0&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Temps are colder then expected and temps are going to drop once the precip begins. All those models showing warmer temps are clealy wrong and have busted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 this shows the same as intellicast - you are wrong plus we are up to 32.6 here by the time the precip reaches the ground will be in the 34 - 38 degree range http://www.meteo.psu...E/loop25ne.html I think the point is that while winter mosaic loops are fun to look at on account of their wide range of colors, the precip type display is formed solely by whether the surface is below, at, or above freezing. Especially considering that most of the precip in NJ is still probably not making it to the ground, I wouldn't worry about what p-type radar shows right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Newark obs - going above freezing 11:51 AM 34.0 °F 26.0 °F 25.0 °F 70% 30.17 in 10.0 mi NNE 10.4 mph - N/A Overcast Precip still hours away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 this shows the same as intellicast - you are wrong plus we are up to 32.6 here by the time the precip reaches the ground will be in the 34 - 38 degree range http://www.meteo.psu...E/loop25ne.html precip still hours away moving north very slowly http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 lol... Whos we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Temps are colder then expected and temps are going to drop once the precip begins. All those models showing warmer temps are clealy wrong and have busted. temp is 34 at newark - precip still stuck in south jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Watch for the temps to wetbulb down to around freezing (if not there already) once the precip starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Watch for the temps to wetbulb down to around freezing (if not there already) once the precip starts. http://i1219.photobu...85012-26-12.gif Warm air not advancing north as fast as first thought it would. Core cooling. Their dew point is 25 with a wet bulb still below freezing. They'd easily be snow if it was precipitating right now. This. Beat me to the submit button lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 http://i1219.photobucket.com/albums/dd439/WeatherNut27/85012-26-12.gif Warm air not advancing north as fast as first thought it would. Core cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 temp is 34 at newark - precip still stuck in south jersey Their dew point is 25 with a wet bulb still below freezing. They'd easily be snow if it was precipitating right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Their dew point is 25 with a wet bulb still below freezing. They'd easily be snow if it was precipitating right now. Bingo! Not sure what he is seeing. Wet bulb will bring the temps down at least at first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Their dew point is 25 with a wet bulb still below freezing. They'd easily be snow if it was precipitating right now. this radar is almost comical andweird looking http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 this radar is almost comical andweird looking http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Winter Weather Advistory is in effect for the NYC area. Guess NYC will see period of wintry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 this radar is almost comical andweird looking http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 The radar site is undershooting the virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And there it is. Upton has now updated 1-3" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The radar site is undershooting the virga. this radar is very accurate http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And there it is. Upton has now updated 1-3" for NYC. Yep! Makes sense too. Cool dry air with winds continuing out of the NE direction. Western and Northern burbs could be in for a crazy fun time ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 this radar is very accurate http://www.wundergro...f=9999&smooth=0 Accurate or not, there's not actually a mote of precipitation forming around Philly. It's a product of radar angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2112wxgrl Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 26/18 @ kfwn Temp up a degree, dew point holding steady since my previous post. 10mph NE wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2235 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1148 AM CST WED DEC 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN/SRN PA...NRN NJ...WRN/CNTRL MD...WRN/NRN VA...ERN WV CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 261748Z - 262345Z SUMMARY...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING. DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE ACROSS THE ERN CONUS. SNOW WITH RATES TO 1 IN/HR...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES OF 0.05 TO 0.10 IN/HR WILL ALL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SNOW WILL BE RELATIVELY MORE LIKELY ACROSS NERN PA AND NRN NJ WHERE DEEPER LAYERS OF SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL EXIST. FARTHER SOUTH...AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER WILL SUPPORT PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF FALLING HYDROMETEORS ATOP SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES SUPPORTING FREEZING RAIN/SLEET...THOUGH AREAS OF SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. WITH TIME...ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z...THE PRECIPITATION-TYPE TRANSITION ZONE WILL GRADUALLY ADVANCE NWD. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A SECONDARY SFC CYCLONE -- CURRENTLY DEEPENING OVER CNTRL NC IN ASSOCIATION WITH SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF AROUND 5.5 MB PER 2 HOURS -- MOVES NNEWD/NWD. AS THIS OCCURS...WARMER LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES EMANATING OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL ADVANCE NWD...PROMOTING MORE EFFICIENT HYDROMETEOR MELTING. PRECIPITATION MAY CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS PARTS OF SERN PA...CNTRL MD...AND ADJACENT NRN VA. HOWEVER...COLD AIR DAMMING PROCESSES E OF THE APPALACHIANS SHOULD MAINTAIN SHALLOW SFC LAYERS OF SUB-FREEZING AIR ACROSS PARTS OF ERN WV...WRN VA...WRN MD...AND S-CNTRL PA TO MAINTAIN A SLEET/FREEZING RAIN THREAT. NEWD MID-LEVEL CYCLONE TRANSLATION WILL SUPPORT THE NEWD-MOTION OF A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ACROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...RESULTING IN A DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION COVERAGE/INTENSITY FROM SW TO NE AFTER 21Z. HOWEVER...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER E-FACING SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WHERE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE ASCENT. ..COHEN.. 12/26/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 28 over 22 Sparta, NW NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Flurries just started here 27/18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 27.6 / 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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