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December 26-27th Storm Observation Thread


dryslot

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Our 2-4" discussion worked out well!

Yeah...I thought we might get a little more, like 3-5" last night after the Euro came in colder, but the dryslot hurt us. I think our thoughts were pretty similar though for the evolution of this storm. We definitely stayed on the colder side of the guidance envelope, and that really was key to our forecast, as the NAM/GFS had me getting nothing with a lot of the runs yesterday. NWS also had all rain until yesterday afternoon, when they changed to <0.5" accumulation. Now there's 2.5" on the ground, dangerous roads, and heavy sleet/snow still falling with temps below freezing.

Both the XMAS and Boxing Day storms were busts for the NWS here as they had mostly rain. Both events have been 95% frozen. I don't think we see that much rain with this storm as the back edge is already in southern NJ and our 850s are still below 0C with a surface temp around 30-31F.

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This morning little or no accumulation last time I looked less than half inch. But when those dp's started nose diving on ne winds it was pretty clear we would snow, cold dry air draining down the housatonic river valley.

I recall upton forcasted .7 for BDR, so this was a quality overperformer for us.

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it's scary how far north the sleet line is on that dual pol shot ed...

It'll take its time progressing northward. So far, pretty on par with what was expected. General 1-2" for FF and NH coast that made it a little farther eastward than expected. You'll have snow for at least 6 hours. This is a marine influence as well. My winds shifted ESE after the changeover. So cool.

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That;'s what we thought would happen..We should start seeing that sleet mix out along the shore with heavier bands..This is how ORH always racks up big amounts..The sleet line constantly mixes out just south of them

I will try and update obs as a heads up to you folks that are going to get buried.

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