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December 26-27th Storm Observation Thread


dryslot

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Same here in Ayer; 5" of 6::1 glop, though. 32F on the money but the column's finally warmed enough aloft that we've been raining lightly here for the last 1 and a half or so. No freezing at the moment.

Looking at p-type rad, which I have found to be a fairly reliable product throughout this, the transition has come a halt probably 5 miles NW of here. It's even begun to collapse a bit east out there around Springfield Mass. You can also note that the entire region is going through a pivot point. The low appears to be making closest pass. I suspect the rain/snow line collapses SE soon, but the amt will probably be tapering as this is a maxed rotting event at this point.

And, as usual, we are taught that all models have some value. We were collectively quick to dismiss the NAM but quite objectively, this event is really a clear 50/50 compromise between the Euro and it (in fact, I was just going over some recent GGEM runs and that model did a damn good job with the temperature fields), for this NE area of Massachusetts; and seeing the low over perhaps the LI Sound and warm penetrating, I don't see how that could be argued against. It is also interesting to see the Euro edge a bit cold biased at such short ranges - very interesting.

Fascinating system.

strongly disagree re: the NAM. It was way too warm and too high on QPF ...it's common bias, but regardless, it did terribly and we were right to dismiss it point blank

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Looks like NWS lopped of 2" from predicted totals. Now at 10-16". My bet is we're under a foot. Stuff just doesn't seem to be accumulating that much.

Tiny flakes, mediocre ratios.

Back to -SN here. We had about an inch 9:30-10:30 as a 30 dbz band passed overhead. 4" new, and though it sweeps, the broom has to be pushed hard. I'm guessing 8:1 or 9:1, was hoping for at least 12:1 and maybe 15. Looks more like an 8-10" event (still good!) than the forecast 12-18, thanks to inefficent snowflakes.

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I mean, euro still did pretty bad too. I don't think any model managed to see the subsidence zones that screwed us

A note everyone should make is that in SWFE events it's very ,very difficult to get big amounts of snow like 10+.

Granted this was a pseudo swfe with the secondary..but the 2ndary got going so far north that it really threw off what might normally happen with coastal redevelopment

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Absolutely pouring dendrites now in Gray. Up until now it's been rather small flake stuff like 12/13/07. Wind is up so it may be hard to measure. We'll see.

NAM temps ftl again. Something has gone terribly wrong in that respect with that model this year. Have to investigate further.

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Agreed. Both the NAM and the RPM were too warm for my area. I should been rain 3 hours ago. Still snowing.

Agreed completely...I did change to rain around 3-4am as anticipated, but at this point the RPM/NAM had the rain/snow line somewhere between MHT and CON. And I'm snowing again.

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Absolutely pouring dendrites now in Gray. Up until now it's been rather small flake stuff like 12/13/07. Wind is up so it may be hard to measure. We'll see.

NAM temps ftl again. Something has gone terribly wrong in that respect with that model this year. Have to investigate further.

Ripping here in Scarborough, riding the coastal front. It's really been piling up. Hope we milk this for a while longer.

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Absolutely pouring dendrites now in Gray. Up until now it's been rather small flake stuff like 12/13/07. Wind is up so it may be hard to measure. We'll see.

NAM temps ftl again. Something has gone terribly wrong in that respect with that model this year. Have to investigate further.

Same her in LEW, SN over the last couple hrs, Eyeballing 6" here, Going to take an official area measurement in an hour or 2

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Ripping here in Scarborough, riding the coastal front. It's really been piling up. Hope we milk this for a while longer.

based on radar CC, you stay for awhile. You may not go over to rain at all. It's still snow in Kennebunk at the inlaws...a good sign for you.
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