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December 26-27th Storm Observation Thread


dryslot

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well f*ck

just take me back to Oklahoma

you too eh? Looked like it was going to crank around 8:30 then just slowed down to a trickle. You are in the same hole I am in...it keeps looking like it wants to start to fill but then doesn't really...hoping for a push to the west or a pivot or something. I wonder if we have subsidence?

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you too eh? Looked like it was going to crank around 8:30 then just slowed down to a trickle. You are in the same hole I am in...it keeps looking like it wants to start to fill but then doesn't really...hoping for a push to the west or a pivot or something. I wonder if we have subsidence?

Yeah, in that same hole here too. Have about 6" and its just spitting little flakes here

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I haven't been out to measure yet, but I stuck the ruler in out the door in two spots and had 6" and 4". So, unofficially it looks like about 5" here, which is a bit of a bust. I was expecting more out of the front end. We started mixing with sleet around 3:30 - 4 AM, but never made a complete transition to sleet as the warm layer is very marginal and thin.

As of now, I've got a 50/50 mix of pellets and parachutes. I'm hoping that once and if the deformation features solidifies over me I can switch back to all parachutes and rip for a while.

Same here in Ayer; 5" of 6::1 glop, though. 32F on the money but the column's finally warmed enough aloft that we've been raining lightly here for the last 1 and a half or so. No freezing at the moment.

Looking at p-type rad, which I have found to be a fairly reliable product throughout this, the transition has come a halt probably 5 miles NW of here. It's even begun to collapse a bit east out there around Springfield Mass. You can also note that the entire region is going through a pivot point. The low appears to be making closest pass. I suspect the rain/snow line collapses SE soon, but the amt will probably be tapering as this is a maxed rotting event at this point.

And, as usual, we are taught that all models have some value. We were collectively quick to dismiss the NAM but quite objectively, this event is really a clear 50/50 compromise between the Euro and it (in fact, I was just going over some recent GGEM runs and that model did a damn good job with the temperature fields), for this NE area of Massachusetts; and seeing the low over perhaps the LI Sound and warm penetrating, I don't see how that could be argued against. It is also interesting to see the Euro edge a bit cold biased at such short ranges - very interesting.

Fascinating system.

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Hey any of the mets or informed hobbyists....is this dry hole over south and south central nh likely to fill in or are we the total screw zone? Thanks...or not.

Dry slot is penetrating pretty far north right now, even shedding the precip shield in northern MA. It might fill in a tad as it loses momentum as it tries to wrap around.

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Get the feeling you will not be done for a while, pivot beginning, as an aside I hate broad LPs

Same here in Ayer; 5" of 6::1 glop, though. 32F on the money but the column's finally warmed enough aloft that we've been raining lightly here for the last 1 and a half or so. No freezing at the moment.

Looking at p-type rad, which I have found to be a fairly reliable product throughout this, the transition has come a halt probably 5 miles NW of here. It's even begun to collapse a bit east out there around Springfield Mass. You can also note that the entire region is going through a pivot point. The low appears to be making closest pass. I suspect the rain/snow line collapses SE soon, but the amt will probably be tapering as this is a maxed rotting event at this point.

And, as usual, we are taught that all models have some value. We were collectively quick to dismiss the NAM but quite objectively, this event is really a clear 50/50 compromise between the Euro and it (in fact, I was just going over some recent GGEM runs and that model did a damn good job with the temperature fields), for this NE area of Massachusetts; and seeing the low over perhaps the LI Sound and warm penetrating, I don't see how that could be argued against. It is also interesting to see the Euro edge a bit cold biased at such short ranges - very interesting.

Fascinating system.

Agree 100% with this even though it didn't produce as much as I had hoped on the front end. However, I'm quickly making up for it now as I'm in that deformation band is really going to town here now with 1/4 mile +SN. Hopefully I can keep it going for a while.

31° F here, which is the warmest I've been. It's been a bit colder than modeled in the low levels here, but the midlevels were pretty much as forecast. The NAM was still too warm with the midlevels though. GFS and Euro both did a good job locally in terms of the thermal profiles as there was a warm tongue around 750-800 mb that switched me to a sleet/snow mix. The upslope flow on the east slope kept those areas snow more as they were able to keep the warm layer at bay more. West slope PL and east slope SN happens a lot with these types of events with marginal, thin warm layers aloft.

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