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December 26-27th Storm Observation Thread


dryslot

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Eyeballing an inch.. thinking of going to bed and hoping to wake up at 5 or 6 to snow and not rain.

I was prepared to stay up until 2-3 AM watching the heavy snow roll in but the radar presentation looks like dogsh*t so I'm not sure about that anymore.

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I was prepared to stay up until 2-3 AM watching the heavy snow roll in but the radar presentation looks like dogsh*t so I'm not sure about that anymore.

Same here, I have a 9am appointment in North Andover (and it will 100% be rain there well before then) so I might as well get some sleep.

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There's between 2 and 3" here but It's just consistent .75/hr type stuff. We'd need 6 more hours of this to hit the 6-8" BOX predicted here.

They key will be the stuff S of LI over the next 3-4 hours or so...if that can't fill in and slam us, then we'll be on the low end of amounts...but its always difficult to predict this WCB stuff...it can sometimes get convective in nature....but I've seen it explode very quickly before....so we'll just have to wait and see...the profiles are marginal on even as late as 09z for N ORH county...so there's time to see how it evolves. Its hauling pretty good, so it wont take long to get that lull through here and see what happens behind it.

But this is a good example of why I said 12" amounts are tough without the CCB/deformation. You have to deal with weird stuff like this.

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They key will be the stuff S of LI over the next 3-4 hours or so...if that can't fill in and slam us, then we'll be on the low end of amounts...but its always difficult to predict this WCB stuff...it can sometimes get convective in nature....but I've seen it explode very quickly before....so we'll just have to wait and see...the profiles are marginal on even as late as 09z for N ORH county...so there's time to see how it evolves. Its hauling pretty good, so it wont take long to get that lull through here and see what happens behind it.

But this is a good example of why I said 12" amounts are tough without the CCB/deformation. You have to deal with weird stuff like this.

Thanks Will for the explanation. I'll be up at least until 1:30-2 to see what happens.

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A little panic going on here, including me, which is understandable. But once the coastal gets going won't the precip both fill-in and start to puch back nw? Then we get our pause and pivot. I see a lot of good returns on radar that should keep coming north to me and points east and that dryslot ssw of me should fill in or become irrelevant.

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I am too. I have nowhere to be tomorrow so I'll stay up and see if some areas can still pull of minimal WSW criteria. I'm worried though, esp. in SNH in MHT where I told some family a foot is likely.

4" in ORH from Noyes...ftw?

And 2" in Atk... not impossible.

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I have a feeling this storm will underperform pretty much everywhere... precip shield looks ok... but not nearly as good anymore imo....

northeast_loop.gif

Hard to call it a bust in the beginning stages. Models have it snowing up here through Friday morning, lol.

That deformation and pivot point from BUF up across far NNE will be very profitable.

I'm not sure why everyone's getting down on it, there's some real heavy stuff getting going south of NYC. I think we'll see "blobs" of heavy precip continue to move in on the SE inflow jet.

But man TWC live in Buffalo looks pretty nuts.

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INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...

STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...

LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...

GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...

ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...

MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...

RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...

RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...

KILLINGTON

946 PM EST WED DEC 26 2012

...SNOW BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY...

SNOW WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN

ADIRONDACKS. RUTLAND...TICONDEROGA...AND NEWCOMB WILL SEE SNOW

BEGIN BY 1030 PM...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD TO POTSDAM...SARANAC

LAKE...PLATTSBURGH...BURLINGTON...MONTPELIER...AND WHITE RIVER

JUNCTION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SNOW WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST...THEN

RAPIDLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS VISIBILITY DROPS TO A HALF MILE

OR LESS. SNOWFALL RATES OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES AN HOUR HAVE BEEN

REPORTED FURTHER SOUTH IN CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK...AND

THOSE SAME RATES CAN BE EXPECTED IN VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW YORK

OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

STAY OFF THE ROADS TONIGHT. TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT VERY SOON

AFTER THE ONSET OF SNOWFALL.

$$

HANSON

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