negative-nao Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Please discuss: Seems like we have the right ingrediants Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 euro looks way differnt @ 12z today 102 hours than last nights run. shortwave ejects outta the southwest, just not enough. gets sheared out. If it can eject something stronger, might be able to produce something bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS has it for Jan 2nd, a near clone of the weekend storm nickel and dimeing our way to above normal snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like a Miller A signal at this point, which someone will have to fill me in when the last time a true Miller A occurred in these parts. That said I think the flow is too progressive currently as there's nothing to hold the low back from ejecting: +NAO and no 50/50 I don't think. Right now it is also further south than tomorrow's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like a Miller A signal at this point, which someone will have to fill me in when the last time a true Miller A occurred in these parts. That said I think the flow is too progressive currently as there's nothing to hold the low back from ejecting: +NAO and no 50/50 I don't think. Right now it is also further south than tomorrow's event. 09-10? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like a Miller A signal at this point, which someone will have to fill me in when the last time a true Miller A occurred in these parts. That said I think the flow is too progressive currently as there's nothing to hold the low back from ejecting: +NAO and no 50/50 I don't think. Right now it is also further south than tomorrow's event. yes Miller A, with alot of overrunning in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So is this one dead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where did all the arctic air go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So is this one dead? I didn't know it was ever alive. I think it was on the GFS at 192 hours out for like two runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 So is this one dead? Certainly not at that range. Signals are still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Where did all the arctic air go? Way, WAY out there in la la land, but.... Hour 372 60 ° 51 ° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think there's still a chance to get accumulating snowfall from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 So is this one dead? Unless you live in the South as this one looks like supression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You would look at this map and see 2 streams "so close" to phasing...ugh....If these 2 could interlock somehow maybe something could come up the coast. We need that northern jet to be farther west... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I've seen little to no support for a phase. Might be a threat in the South it appears attm....maybe even ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Tight gradient between the maritimes low and the high SE of Florida is a system crusher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The system on 1/4-1/5 is worth keeping an eye on...might also suppress but it's still "there" on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The system on 1/4-1/5 is worth keeping an eye on...might also suppress but it's still "there" on the map. Thank you JB ;-D haha jk buddy! I'm not too enthused with the chances. Flow gets very fast along the way coast. Suppressed and sheared is my first guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thank you JB ;-D haha jk buddy! I'm not too enthused with the chances. Flow gets very fast along the way coast. Suppressed and sheared is my first guess. -- I'm not that optimistic either but it's one of those things that if the flow relaxes some it could result in the storm bumping up the coast a bit. The GFS tries to get close on this on the 0z last night and had some snow up to Philly on the 12z yesterday I believe. In the end, the pattern supports suppression but given it's a week out I don't think it's a bad idea to keep an eye on it just in case. (FWIW, the GFS did shift north with the New Years Night event about 75 miles between 12z yesterday and 0z today...still stays way south of us but it's something to note) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This system panned out rather well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Maybe Saturday night's flizzard (northern areas?) will take its place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Maybe Saturday night's flizzard (northern areas?) will take its place. yea the gfs and nam have been spitting out .05-.1 qpf for areas nw of phl for saturday night/sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 per the nam, some spots could squeak out an inch...oooooo ahhhhhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 9Z SREFs....crushing flizzard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 per the nam, some spots could squeak out an inch...oooooo ahhhhhh Most other models are north with the best lift/precip. Something to watch in a painfully dull pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 cool! add to my current snowpack to be gone next week! (but return soon after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 This system panned out rather well It's because I didn't start the thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Hey, there might be a coating? That's epic so far this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 euro is like the nam south of the m/d line...spits out .1-.25 for dc area and .05-.1 south the m/d line for jerz and del..rest of the area is under .05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 4, 2013 Share Posted January 4, 2013 Ooooo...a coating/dusting on cars, grass, and sidewalks. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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