SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We all are concentrating on snow, man Craig Allen just posted a gem on FB. Winds gusting to hurricane force on the coast, surge 3-5 feet above ASTRO, 2-4 rain, seas 12-18 ft It's probably going to be entertaining in some shape or form everywhere in NE, astro tides slop on the ground followed by a few inches of rain could flood the square here easy with good timing. (it really isn't that tough to do) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 lol.. the beets line was meant for MPM. So, it won't make it as far north? ha, yeah - I don't know. The NAM does sometimes score a coup - this is an odd scenario as outlined by Scott earlier. Usually the positive busts have the cold BL - here, we have borderline BL, but we also have a high parked N feeding in. I think, though, that there is something to convective feedback affecting this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What's long range for HRR. How long did it take you to type that post? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 his case was? Warm air from.south, warmer influence from the east,.storm.going up the Apps instead.of the coast. Can't seem to get mutiquote working Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well that run was all snow for imby. Baby steps with the NAM. When are you going to make a call? You seem to be tentative, What is skewing your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 too bad. Key word highly tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 When are you going to make a call? You seem to be tentative, What is skewing your thoughts? Is qpf still above 1.5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ha, yeah - I don't know. The NAM does sometimes score a coup - this is an odd scenario as outlined by Scott earlier. Usually the positive busts have the cold BL - here, we have borderline BL, but we also have a high parked N feeding in. I think, though, that there is something to convective feedback affecting this thing. Yeah I wonder about that too regarding convection. I noticed the models have a very large closed circulation and it's elongated to the ENE thanks to the convection near the cold front and triple point. It's possible we have a large area of low pressure as I've seen it happen before, but I did think about the convective thing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Is qpf still above 1.5? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM. It's tough to tell on the maps and I don't care to look all that closely but it is clearly west by 12z Thursday with the low SE of NYC, off the Jersey coast south of LI at 991mb. ***based on crude maps*** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 While its always possible the nam will be right, how much credence would we give it I'd it wasn't first outbox the chute? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's the map from Springfield's Channel 40. A smidge lower than BOX's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 While its always possible the nam will be right, how much credence would we give it I'd it wasn't first outbox the chute? It would be tossed even more if it was not the 1st one out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM. It's tough to tell on the maps and I don't care to look all that closely but it is clearly west by 12z Thursday with the low SE of NYC, off the Jersey coast south of LI at 991mb. ***based on crude maps*** How can we say it is "0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM", then, " It's tough to tell on the maps" I don't think much is definite if it is difficult to discern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's the map from Springfield's Channel 40. A smidge lower than BOX's. If Kevin is in the 1-3", probably - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 How can we say it is "0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM", then, " It's tough to tell on the maps" I don't think much is definite if it is difficult to discern If you overlay the maps it's not difficult to see at all John. But I'm trying to be sensitive. Face value, time frame for time frame it is west, and slightly warmer vs the 12z. That's just what I see with the model, I'm not indicating it's right, that you or anyone else will see more or less snow. (it's also easy to see it pulls moisture a bit further NW in southern Canada vs the 12z) Again subtle, but maybe of note as we head into the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i'd be nervous about the nam's consistency and the fact that we're within 36 hours now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 While its always possible the nam will be right, how much credence would we give it I'd it wasn't first outbox the chute? Woah I got a buzz on but this really made me feel drunk, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Even if the NAM temp profiles are right, the 0z run shows about .25" liquid falling across WMass (lesser amounts across CT and EMass) after the column cools to support snow on the backside. The mythical wraparound snows might be dubious, but it shows yet another way to put down a few inches of snow with this sprawling storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Regardless of how this plays--this is a pretty impressive winter weather map here. Hopefully we'll see many like this down the road. Now, to the GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i'd be nervous about the nam's consistency and the fact that we're within 36 hours now What are 950 winds speeds like in LI sound , Tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here's the map from Springfield's Channel 40. A smidge lower than BOX's. Seems most media outlets never sided with the 12z RGEM in the first place. Otherwise, they'd have 3-6 down to the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Even if the NAM temp profiles are right, the 0z run shows about .25" liquid falling across WMass (lesser amounts across CT and EMass) after the column cools to support snow on the backside. The mythical wraparound snows might be dubious, but it shows yet another way to put down a few inches of snow with this sprawling storm. I noticed that on the backside. Anyone know how accurate the Weathertap radar's p-type depictions are? I'll be watching that mix line closley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone remind me where to get the GGEM black and white maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Shocked they haven't upgraded us to a warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS seems cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS seems cold. Slightly east of 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looks 10-20 miles east to me out to 24h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 If you overlay the maps it's not difficult to see at all John. But I'm trying to be sensitive. Face value, time frame for time frame it is west, and slightly warmer vs the 12z. That's just what I see with the model, I'm not indicating it's right, that you or anyone else will see more or less snow. (it's also easy to see it pulls moisture a bit further NW in southern Canada vs the 12z) Again subtle, but maybe of note as we head into the other models. I agree with the synoptic method, yes. I was really more at ribbing you about the semantics there Yeah, but it's such small variances - I'm not sure those subtleties help matters. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone remind me where to get the GGEM black and white maps? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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