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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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We all are concentrating on snow, man Craig Allen just posted a gem on FB. Winds gusting to hurricane force on the coast, surge 3-5 feet above ASTRO, 2-4 rain, seas 12-18 ft

It's probably going to be entertaining in some shape or form everywhere in NE, astro tides slop on the ground followed by a few inches of rain could flood the square here easy with good timing. (it really isn't that tough to do)

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lol.. the beets line was meant for MPM.

So, it won't make it as far north?

ha, yeah - I don't know. The NAM does sometimes score a coup - this is an odd scenario as outlined by Scott earlier. Usually the positive busts have the cold BL - here, we have borderline BL, but we also have a high parked N feeding in.

I think, though, that there is something to convective feedback affecting this thing.

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ha, yeah - I don't know. The NAM does sometimes score a coup - this is an odd scenario as outlined by Scott earlier. Usually the positive busts have the cold BL - here, we have borderline BL, but we also have a high parked N feeding in.

I think, though, that there is something to convective feedback affecting this thing.

Yeah I wonder about that too regarding convection. I noticed the models have a very large closed circulation and it's elongated to the ENE thanks to the convection near the cold front and triple point. It's possible we have a large area of low pressure as I've seen it happen before, but I did think about the convective thing too.

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0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM. It's tough to tell on the maps and I don't care to look all that closely but it is clearly west by 12z Thursday with the low SE of NYC, off the Jersey coast south of LI at 991mb. ***based on crude maps***

How can we say it is "0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM", then, " It's tough to tell on the maps"

I don't think much is definite if it is difficult to discern ;)

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How can we say it is "0z RGEM is definitely west and warmer of the 12z RGEM", then, " It's tough to tell on the maps"

I don't think much is definite if it is difficult to discern ;)

If you overlay the maps it's not difficult to see at all John. But I'm trying to be sensitive. Face value, time frame for time frame it is west, and slightly warmer vs the 12z. That's just what I see with the model, I'm not indicating it's right, that you or anyone else will see more or less snow. (it's also easy to see it pulls moisture a bit further NW in southern Canada vs the 12z) Again subtle, but maybe of note as we head into the other models.

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Even if the NAM temp profiles are right, the 0z run shows about .25" liquid falling across WMass (lesser amounts across CT and EMass) after the column cools to support snow on the backside. The mythical wraparound snows might be dubious, but it shows yet another way to put down a few inches of snow with this sprawling storm.

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Even if the NAM temp profiles are right, the 0z run shows about .25" liquid falling across WMass (lesser amounts across CT and EMass) after the column cools to support snow on the backside. The mythical wraparound snows might be dubious, but it shows yet another way to put down a few inches of snow with this sprawling storm.

I noticed that on the backside.

Anyone know how accurate the Weathertap radar's p-type depictions are? I'll be watching that mix line closley.

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If you overlay the maps it's not difficult to see at all John. But I'm trying to be sensitive. Face value, time frame for time frame it is west, and slightly warmer vs the 12z. That's just what I see with the model, I'm not indicating it's right, that you or anyone else will see more or less snow. (it's also easy to see it pulls moisture a bit further NW in southern Canada vs the 12z) Again subtle, but maybe of note as we head into the other models.

I agree with the synoptic method, yes. I was really more at ribbing you about the semantics there :)

Yeah, but it's such small variances - I'm not sure those subtleties help matters. Interesting.

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