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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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it isnt necessary to look at the nam. the ml warming w/ a prolonged e flow , in late Dec when ssts are already aoa avg..cp is going to torch quickly all the way to orh. if this were a typical bomb detonation like dec 05 or jan 05 diff ballgame. caveat is decent cold nearby and low not cutting into sne. no 'net here yet..on chitty celdl phone so fingers hurt. my 1 cent prior to 00z.

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classic!

Its a disgrace, And needs to be tweaked

Unless of course it ends up correct. :(

Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink.

Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter.

20.4/15

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I think I see what the NAM is doing - whether it is wrong or right remains to be seen. It's developing a new low in response to convective forcing over W NC, between hours 18 and 24, and I suspect that action is causing an (erroneously) large dose of latent heat release to be lifted N ahead of its of vortex, and that is mucking around with the temperature/thickness NNE of the system through 48 hours thereafter.

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classic!

Unless of course it ends up correct. :(

Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink.

Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter.

20.4/15

Don't worry - Birving took your place with the spelling issue lol

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It continues to do some ridiculous things such as the 2 foot snowfall it has in Ottawa. Maybe hanging onto the old primary to long...I see elongation in the 7H low right through at least 42 hours.

The NAM continues to embarrass itself with this storm...not a clue what its doing not just here but over the OH Valley area, its upper and surface features/precip shield out that way do not fit its mid and upper depictions whatsoever. Its also likely too slow (as usual) advancing in the precipitation.

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classic!

Unless of course it ends up correct. :(

Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink.

Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter.

20.4/15

It would be the 1st time since 2010 if it did, Don't think so, Euro is pretty cold with this system I will ride it like a mule

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it isnt necessary to look at the nam. the ml warming w/ a prolonged e flow , in late Dec when ssts are already aoa avg..cp is going to torch quickly all the way to orh. if this were a typical bomb detonation like dec 05 or jan 05 diff ballgame. caveat is decent cold nearby and low not cutting into sne. no 'net here yet..on chitty celdl phone so fingers hurt. my 1 cent prior to 00z.

Yeah this system is not deepening when it gets here.

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I htink you had too many beets

No. You can see it in the 540 thickness; when it commits to the W NC new center it simultaneously bulges the contours N, and then the low moves along the interface between of the 546dm contour - which if CF is being erroneously served, that latter behavior won't take place.

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Who knows ....point taken so I should say snow or sleet.

The NAM is alone with its surge in temps above 850mb. I think it's overdone but it's been right before in this regard when it went maverick. The 0z actually was a significant correction SE with the 800mb 0C line. The change was especially noticable in ENY and CNE.

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No. You can see it in the 540 thickness; when it commits to the W NC new center it simultaneously bulges the contours N, and then the low moves along the interface between of the 546dm contour - which if CF is being erroneously served, that latter behavior won't take place.

lol.. the beets line was meant for MPM.

So, it won't make it as far north?

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