free_man Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it isnt necessary to look at the nam. the ml warming w/ a prolonged e flow , in late Dec when ssts are already aoa avg..cp is going to torch quickly all the way to orh. if this were a typical bomb detonation like dec 05 or jan 05 diff ballgame. caveat is decent cold nearby and low not cutting into sne. no 'net here yet..on chitty celdl phone so fingers hurt. my 1 cent prior to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Plenty of warm air meeting that cold air, BOOM Like I said.... warm air Hopefully that's more of an issue for you than me. ; ) I still think Boston gets a nice few hours ripping SN+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Taint? What were his reasonings? (I guess i could watch - lol) Speed/duration of the intial thump will obviously play a role in SNE totals. Warm air from.south, warmer influence from the east,.storm.going up the Apps instead.of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0-9 classic! Its a disgrace, And needs to be tweaked Unless of course it ends up correct. Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink. Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter. 20.4/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I see what the NAM is doing - whether it is wrong or right remains to be seen. It's developing a new low in response to convective forcing over W NC, between hours 18 and 24, and I suspect that action is causing an (erroneously) large dose of latent heat release to be lifted N ahead of its of vortex, and that is mucking around with the temperature/thickness NNE of the system through 48 hours thereafter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I htink you had too many beets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 classic! Unless of course it ends up correct. Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink. Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter. 20.4/15 Don't worry - Birving took your place with the spelling issue lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Fwiw....HRR has Boston snowy for a solid 10 hous based on 850 and 925 temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It continues to do some ridiculous things such as the 2 foot snowfall it has in Ottawa. Maybe hanging onto the old primary to long...I see elongation in the 7H low right through at least 42 hours. The NAM continues to embarrass itself with this storm...not a clue what its doing not just here but over the OH Valley area, its upper and surface features/precip shield out that way do not fit its mid and upper depictions whatsoever. Its also likely too slow (as usual) advancing in the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 classic! Unless of course it ends up correct. Looks liek the northern areas of centra/western mass would have a shift more to ip than rn I htink. Good news is I'm back at home so I can actually type without typos and autocorrects every third letter. 20.4/15 It would be the 1st time since 2010 if it did, Don't think so, Euro is pretty cold with this system I will ride it like a mule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I htink you had too many beets Were they spiked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it isnt necessary to look at the nam. the ml warming w/ a prolonged e flow , in late Dec when ssts are already aoa avg..cp is going to torch quickly all the way to orh. if this were a typical bomb detonation like dec 05 or jan 05 diff ballgame. caveat is decent cold nearby and low not cutting into sne. no 'net here yet..on chitty celdl phone so fingers hurt. my 1 cent prior to 00z. Yeah this system is not deepening when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Fwiw....HRR has Boston snowy for a solid 10 hous based on 850 and 925 temps. 775mb temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 I htink you had too many beets No. You can see it in the 540 thickness; when it commits to the W NC new center it simultaneously bulges the contours N, and then the low moves along the interface between of the 546dm contour - which if CF is being erroneously served, that latter behavior won't take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Fwiw....HRR has Boston snowy for a solid 10 hous based on 850 and 925 temps. I've found the HRRR to have a cold bias in its long range. I'd expect it to slowly correct back to reality. LOL at Taunton shattering the hopes and dreams of all the snow weenies inside the 128 belt by canceling their HWOs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We all are concentrating on snow, man Craig Allen just posted a gem on FB. Winds gusting to hurricane force on the coast, surge 3-5 feet above ASTRO, 2-4 rain, seas 12-18 ft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 775mb temps? Who knows ....point taken so I should say snow or sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And 00z NAM continues to be a huge hit. So stoked for 1"+ QPF as snow. What a turn around in the past couple weeks. SNE Is going to get crushed too...Im feeling widespread 5-10" prior to change over from KTOLLA and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I've found the HRRR to have a cold bias in its long range. I'd expect it to slowly correct back to reality. LOL at Taunton shattering the hopes and dreams of all the snow weenies inside the 128 belt by canceling their HWOs. What's long range for HRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well that run was all snow for imby. Baby steps with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Who knows ....point taken so I should say snow or sleet. The NAM is alone with its surge in temps above 850mb. I think it's overdone but it's been right before in this regard when it went maverick. The 0z actually was a significant correction SE with the 800mb 0C line. The change was especially noticable in ENY and CNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 nam is colder for us here in southern nh. it brings the 850 up into extreme southern nh then drops back so just north of that could be the heavy snow banding? Works for me but its the NAM. Toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 We all are concentrating on snow, man Craig Allen just posted a gem on FB. Winds gusting to hurricane force on the coast, surge 3-5 feet above ASTRO, 2-4 rain, seas 12-18 ft You're shocked by this ? no one on here cares about weather; it's all about snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 And 00z NAM continues to be a huge hit. So stoked for 1"+ QPF as snow. What a turn around in the past couple weeks. SNE Is going to get crushed too...Im feeling widespread 5-10" prior to change over from KTOLLA and northwest. Pity confidence!!! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You're shocked by this ? no one on here cares about weather; it's all about snow! If its not high winds, svr, or snow count me out on being highly interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You're shocked by this ? no one on here cares about weather; it's all about snow! Bull Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No. You can see it in the 540 thickness; when it commits to the W NC new center it simultaneously bulges the contours N, and then the low moves along the interface between of the 546dm contour - which if CF is being erroneously served, that latter behavior won't take place. lol.. the beets line was meant for MPM. So, it won't make it as far north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Matt Noyes made a nice case for lower totals. He also left a pretty wide door open his case was? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Bull Could be coastal issues on east facing shorelines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 If its not high winds, svr, or snow count me out on being highly interested too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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