Colonel Badger Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 First post on here...been lurking for a bit, work with coastalwx. I agree theyll be a pretty tight gradient in SE NH. Hopefully we can establish a decent CF to the south and keep the winds more NNE. I think we'll do pretty well, although i wouldnt mind being 25 miles nw. Where do you stand on the colder Euro vs the GFS and NAM? RPM seems warm for our area too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 First post on here...been lurking for a bit, work with coastalwx. I agree theyll be a pretty tight gradient in SE NH. Hopefully we can establish a decent CF to the south and keep the winds more NNE. I think we'll do pretty well, although i wouldnt mind being 25 miles nw. I hope so...I'd feel much better being just west of MHT. Nice to hear from another neighbor! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where do you stand on the colder Euro vs the GFS and NAM? RPM seems warm for our area too. Consistently warm...the 21z run that just came in has no more than an inch or two. Somewhat concerning although this is the first winter that I've had full access to the RPM, so I'm not sure of its strengths and weaknesses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Welcome aboard, You better go on a posting frenzy if you want to catch Scooter........... Thanks, he makes a post or 2 on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thanks, he makes a post or 2 on here. Per minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 First post on here...been lurking for a bit, work with coastalwx. I agree theyll be a pretty tight gradient in SE NH. Hopefully we can establish a decent CF to the south and keep the winds more NNE. I think we'll do pretty well, although i wouldnt mind being 25 miles nw. what do you think for up here nw of conc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thanks, he makes a post or 2 on here. lol, I feel bad for him, He is on a bad streak snow wise and he is a great guy and deserves some, Mother nature is a B**ch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 First post on here...been lurking for a bit, work with coastalwx. I agree theyll be a pretty tight gradient in SE NH. Hopefully we can establish a decent CF to the south and keep the winds more NNE. I think we'll do pretty well, although i wouldnt mind being 25 miles nw. Welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I hope so...I'd feel much better being just west of MHT. Nice to hear from another neighbor! Ryan where are you located? I'd also like to be west of MHT or N of Concord. I'm going to be willing those winds to stay NNE. Last couple events we stayed frozen much longer than forecast due to CAD. We shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what do you think for up here nw of conc? I'd like to be there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ryan where are you located? I'd also like to be west of MHT or N of Concord. I'm going to be willing those winds to stay NNE. Last couple events we stayed frozen much longer than forecast due to CAD. We shall see Atkinson...near Salem NH/Haverhill MA, you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 what do you think for up here nw of conc? I think your in a good spot. As long we torch as fast as the NAM you'll be pretty happy. My grandparents live just North of you in Andover. Great area for holding snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Atkinson...near Salem NH/Haverhill MA, you? Newmarket/Durham area - Interior Rockingham Co, 15 or so miles from Portsmouth I guess (I.e. the battle zone for this event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 DTs map isnt that bad. These systems of SE Us origin seem to be warmer than advertised. once an area flips to pl/r its hard to go back to accumulating snow, esp without a bombing/bombogenesis low to rid the ml taint and crash cf. 4-8 seems like a good conservative call for here anyway. Exactly! and in general to get the 8 inches there needs to be some sick rates in the front end thump save for a track further se and while a track another fifty miles se will probably save northern ma to central NH there still could very well be sleet mixed in. All kinds of snow busts down in the southern plains into Arkansas so far. Also the Nam a couple days ago thought parts of Ok would see up to and over 20 inches of snow lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is his map. That map can **** itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I eagerly look forward to reporting my torrential rains lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 *** Simple model comparison: The 18z RGEM as it relates to SNE is probably a tiny,tiny, within grid distance, bit warmer than the 12z 33-42 hours vs the 12z. Yet it's a bit cooler in PA etc. Probably just normal model noise. Storm Mode Disclaimer: This is my opinion only based on the specific model runs and times referenced and is not intended to convey a specific forecast. It is also not a statement on the amount of snow one area may receive or to indicate any particular area may see more or less snow than previously thought, implied, misconstrued, believed, divined from forked sticks or heard from voices in ones head. For entertainment purposes only, all rights reserved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I hate the dead zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That map can **** itself There's been a lot of maps I'd like to say that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think your in a good spot. As long we torch as fast as the NAM you'll be pretty happy. My grandparents live just North of you in Andover. Great area for holding snow. It is beautiful up here. I can't get enough of it...long walks in endless woods. Soon those walks will include snowshoes. I am on the border (literally) of Webster and Salisbury so we are just a few miles from Andover and often bike the Potters Place Trail, visit Highland Lake, etc. It is beautiful over there. We do hold the snow better than Concord and there have been times where the sleet line gets to Hookset, Bow and even Concord and we hang on to snow up here. So you think I should hope you torch fast so we can get the heavy band on the other side of the coastal front? The qpf numbers have been fantastic for 3 straight days. 1.5-2. The forecasts seem a bit conservative, but perhaps if the numbers persist overnight the predictions will be increased. I don't see how someone not too far from here gets 20+. Ratios might be a problem? But I would think they will be good early in the storm and then late for whoever get the deform band. I think Jeff (Coldfront) is 12-18 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'd like to be there Take a ride north Thursday...they keep 93 clear...walk around conc or go up to lake winnapasaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It is beautiful up here. I can't get enough of it...long walks in endless woods. Soon those walks will include snowshoes. I am on the border (literally) of Webster and Salisbury so we are just a few miles from Andover and often bike the Potters Place Trail, visit Highland Lake, etc. It is beautiful over there. We do hold the snow better than Concord and there have been times where the sleet line gets to Hookset, Bow and even Concord and we hang on to snow up here. So you think I should hope you torch fast so we can get the heavy band on the other side of the coastal front? The qpf numbers have been fantastic for 3 straight days. 1.5-2. The forecasts seem a bit conservative, but perhaps if the numbers persist overnight the predictions will be increased. I don't see how someone not too far from here gets 20+. Ratios might be a problem? But I would think they will be good early in the storm and then late for whoever get the deform band. I think Jeff (Coldfront) is 12-18 at least. lol sorry meant to say NOT as fast the NAM. Even then you would still do fine on the front end up there. That area is awesome. Love going up to visit. Ratios wont be great, but with so much qpf itll make up for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwts1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm located in Sandown NH right on the Chester NH border. The drive up from Haverhill MA. north,along rt.121A can be amazing in these situations. You can go from rain in Haverhill to a raging snowstorm 10 miles north. Elevation increase is only ~150'asl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm located in Sandown NH right on the Chester NH border. The drive up from Haverhill MA. north,along rt.121A can be amazing in these situations. You can go from rain in Haverhill to a raging snowstorm 10 miles north. Elevation increase is only ~150'asl. Hello fellow Interior Rockingham'er! What are your thoughts for this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thinking 2-5" to rain here that washes everything away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Little confused that Box has me under a WSW and yet snowfall map shows less than a inch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM ... some CAPE instability existing across CT and RI, and a good stripe of a deep saturated CSI layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormwts1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 3" along MA/NH border up to 8" in Concord. 10"+ Laconia northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Take a ride north Thursday...they keep 93 clear...walk around conc or go up to lake winnapasaukee Love to but this annoying thing called work gets in the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This thing is a pain because I would not be shocked at a bust either way from Tolland to Manchester NH. The one thing over performers tend to have is a very chilly boundary layer up trough say 950mb. This one will not in said area and erly flow will warm this layer especially south of I-90. On the other hand, we have a nice high to the north which will help keep whatever cold we have coming in on NE flow. I think I would remain rather modest to conservative south of the pike for now. I think the best way for people in this area to over perform is to get one hell of a 6 hr stretch of intense precip rates. There are some signs this first band will be brief especially in srn areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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