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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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BOX updated p n c for me is 11-16 when I add them up. Oops

Loving my forecast!

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow and sleet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Blustery and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday: Snow...sleet and rain showers in the morning...then snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...becoming north 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

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Loving my forecast!

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow and sleet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Blustery and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday: Snow...sleet and rain showers in the morning...then snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...becoming north 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

They're expecting a pretty sick gradient. They only have 2-4" for me. We'll see.

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Loving my forecast!

Tonight: Snow this evening...then snow and sleet after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 8 to 12 inches. Blustery and not as cool. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. Northeast winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Thursday: Snow...sleet and rain showers in the morning...then snow and rain showers in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Total snow accumulation of 12 to 18 inches. Highs in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph...becoming north 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

Yet they are still mentioning rain. To taint or not to taint... that is the question

I am sticking to my 9-10" call for mby Will be nice to use the old snowblower. Hope I have enough gas...lol

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I would not be surprised to see some 2-3'' per hour snowfall rates...perhaps even 4'' per hour rates. Already seeing a great presence of moisture convergence and frotogenesis occurring and that should only increase as the system continues to deepen.

HPC takes the LP down to 988mb from LI to Yarmouth, NS

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Latest mesoscale discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VT...SRN NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...MUCH OF

CT/RI...PARTS OF FAR ERN NY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 262139Z - 270245Z

SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA

AFTER 00Z. A TRANSITION TO WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR FROM S TO N AFTER 03Z.

DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NNEWD ALONG

THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH

TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL

ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE BULK OF

HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD

PARTS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT FAR ERN NY FROM SW TO NE

AFTER 00Z.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT...AUGMENTED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCHES OF

FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL INTERSECT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES

BETWEEN THE 560- AND 500-MB LEVELS AS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THIS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO

DEPICT ISOTHERMAL LAYERS FEATURING TEMPERATURES AROUND/JUST BELOW 0C

BETWEEN THE 900- AND 700-MB LEVELS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SNOW

AGGREGATION. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE

POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES ACCOMPANYING ANY CONVECTIVELY

ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF NARROW ELEVATED CAPE

LAYERS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE

HEAVIEST SNOW.

AFTER 03Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A NWD-MOVING

LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WILL RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-TYPE TRANSITION

FROM S TO N. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WARMER TRAJECTORIES EXTEND INLAND

FROM THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN

WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF FALLING HYDROMETEORS

OCCURS ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN

MAY OCCUR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WINTER MIXED

PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

..COHEN.. 12/26/2012

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

Wiz ya got to put the pic with it, we do not get MCDs too often

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I'm going on a nowcast of <2 inside 128

Yeah, not our storm Jerry.

That's gonna be a tough < 2 inches too...

I was hoping for a bust high, but BL looks toasty, let alone warm advection in upper levels

35-36/26-28 in multiple stations in Boston metro, and dews are slowly ticking up on NNE/NE winds

We'll have ours in time.

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HPC takes the s/w down to 988mb from LI to Yarmouth, NS

Yeah this will be bombing out pretty rapidly and as that occurs that's when the LLJ will really begin to crank and unfortunately increase the progression of the WAA. It will also make for some insane fun just on the right side of the coastal front which is obviously where those insane hourly totals will occur and perhaps some thunder.

Wiz ya got to put the pic with it, we do not get MCDs too often

Thanks Steve...meant to do that!

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Yeah this will be bombing out pretty rapidly and as that occurs that's when the LLJ will really begin to crank and unfortunately increase the progression of the WAA. It will also make for some insane fun just on the right side of the coastal front which is obviously where those insane hourly totals will occur and perhaps some thunder.

Thanks Steve...meant to do that!

I am usually am on the NW side of the CF if we don't have a strong push inland

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