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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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18z gfs is looking even better then 12z were going to get it good

I think it's time to sit back and see what happens.....

Exactly what we had. Yeah our deep snowpack has begun. Lets really get some ice in there

A weenie for each inch of snowpack BOX is offering in their WWA. (I think they'll bust).

:weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie: :weenie:

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i am hoping that warm layer stops cold in central ct so it can pour snow for several hours from Hartford on north and then some sleet to make it a glacier as a base for subsequent events should we be so lucky

i could see my area get as little as two inches or as much as ten but have been fooled with the sneaky warm layer so many times before and been crushed so many times before with temps much colder than what we have for this event.

I think Holyoke/Northampton north will be crushed before any mixing occurs however

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Man look at how low dews are. 16 at BDL. Interior aint going above freezing folks

Not true really.

If anything this indicates how dry the air is which means it could actually take a bit longer to really saturate. Also, the WAA is going to be real strong and it really won't take much for dewpoints to shoot up. Regardless, sfc temps probably won't get that much above freezing until close to the storm's end, however, it means little with the WAA that will be occurring aloft.

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Latest mesoscale discussion:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0339 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VT...SRN NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...MUCH OF

CT/RI...PARTS OF FAR ERN NY

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION

VALID 262139Z - 270245Z

SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA

AFTER 00Z. A TRANSITION TO WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO

OCCUR FROM S TO N AFTER 03Z.

DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NNEWD ALONG

THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH

TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL

ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE BULK OF

HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD

PARTS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT FAR ERN NY FROM SW TO NE

AFTER 00Z.

THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT...AUGMENTED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCHES OF

FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL INTERSECT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES

BETWEEN THE 560- AND 500-MB LEVELS AS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS.

THIS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO

DEPICT ISOTHERMAL LAYERS FEATURING TEMPERATURES AROUND/JUST BELOW 0C

BETWEEN THE 900- AND 700-MB LEVELS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SNOW

AGGREGATION. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE

POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES ACCOMPANYING ANY CONVECTIVELY

ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF NARROW ELEVATED CAPE

LAYERS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE

HEAVIEST SNOW.

AFTER 03Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A NWD-MOVING

LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WILL RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-TYPE TRANSITION

FROM S TO N. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WARMER TRAJECTORIES EXTEND INLAND

FROM THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN

WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF FALLING HYDROMETEORS

OCCURS ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN

MAY OCCUR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WINTER MIXED

PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT.

..COHEN.. 12/26/2012

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...

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It looks like the northward progress of the sleet line is slowing just S of NYC per the KDIX dual pol correlation coefficients. Dual pol products are going to be a big help in tracking where the taint line is.

How can you tell it is sleet? I don't know how to read radars very well... :axe: :axe:

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HRRR is spitting out some wacky forecasts. Snowfall rates of 6"/ hour?

1hsnw_t3sfc_f08.png

I would not be surprised to see some 2-3'' per hour snowfall rates...perhaps even 4'' per hour rates. Already seeing a great presence of moisture convergence and frotogenesis occurring and that should only increase as the system continues to deepen.

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GYX bumps it up along the Maine Coast... figured the colder air looks to win out a little more. I am still confident that if you are North and East of Portland along the coast mixing will only be with wintery types. If you live right on the shore you may see rain. Also downeast Maine is the other location to see mixing with rain b/c of the track and front placement. From Portland to Rockland along the coast about a mile inland expect to see 6-10" of wet heavy snow. That's what I have been thinking this whole time. I think the models have had a hard time nailing some things down because of the amount of convection yesterday and today at the time of model initiation.

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