HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Exactly what we had. Yeah our deep snowpack has begun. Lets really get some ice in there Blizz, Guinness regular or Black? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If there is a report of 18"+ in Cheshire County, I will do one lap around the second floor of the National Weather Center naked Video or it didn't happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If there is a report of 18"+ in Cheshire County, I will do one lap around the second floor of the National Weather Center naked You can use Pete's locks to keep you warm. That map is peculiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Blizz, Guinness regular or Black? Love both but am on a Black kick currently. You can send UPS Next day please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z gfs is looking even better then 12z were going to get it good I think it's time to sit back and see what happens..... Exactly what we had. Yeah our deep snowpack has begun. Lets really get some ice in there A weenie for each inch of snowpack BOX is offering in their WWA. (I think they'll bust). :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRRR is spitting out some wacky forecasts. Snowfall rates of 6"/ hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Overcast here with the temperature down a bit to 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i am hoping that warm layer stops cold in central ct so it can pour snow for several hours from Hartford on north and then some sleet to make it a glacier as a base for subsequent events should we be so lucky i could see my area get as little as two inches or as much as ten but have been fooled with the sneaky warm layer so many times before and been crushed so many times before with temps much colder than what we have for this event. I think Holyoke/Northampton north will be crushed before any mixing occurs however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think it's time to sit back and see what happens..... A weenie for each inch of snowpack BOX is offering in their WWA. (I think they'll bust). :weenie: :weenie: Have those cows moved yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They just upped the SNH warning to 12-18''...that seems a bit ambitious outside of Cheshire county. 18z GFS is spitting out close to 2.5" qpf here, That is incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man look at how low dews are. 16 at BDL. Interior aint going above freezing folks Not true really. If anything this indicates how dry the air is which means it could actually take a bit longer to really saturate. Also, the WAA is going to be real strong and it really won't take much for dewpoints to shoot up. Regardless, sfc temps probably won't get that much above freezing until close to the storm's end, however, it means little with the WAA that will be occurring aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 have 35 dbz on me thought that was the sleet line but still hanging onto snow. 2.5 inches still pouring snow On dual pol, look how the sleet line washes out in NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRRR is spitting out some wacky forecasts. Snowfall rates of 6"/ hour? Well, how else will you pile up 38"??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 WBZ ripping and reading the warm RPM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
17iceman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 wwa just posted 2-5 for cumberland ri.....seems a bit aggressive... but that would be great if it happens.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It looks like the northward progress of the sleet line is slowing just S of NYC per the KDIX dual pol correlation coefficients. Dual pol products are going to be a big help in tracking where the taint line is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BOX updated p n c for me is 11-16 when I add them up. Oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 FWIW the SPC analysis at 21z indicated 850mb temperatures were roughly 2C colder than the 18z NAM forecast. 0C line down into southern NJ, basically from the DE/PA/NJ border eastward. -2C at NYC and -3C at DXR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest mesoscale discussion: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2239 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 PM CST WED DEC 26 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VT...SRN NH...CNTRL/WRN MA...MUCH OF CT/RI...PARTS OF FAR ERN NY CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION VALID 262139Z - 270245Z SUMMARY...SNOW WITH RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA AFTER 00Z. A TRANSITION TO WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM S TO N AFTER 03Z. DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NNEWD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT PRECEDING THE CYCLONE CENTER WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND THE BULK OF HIGH-RESOLUTION WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT HEAVY SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF SRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND AND ADJACENT FAR ERN NY FROM SW TO NE AFTER 00Z. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT...AUGMENTED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCHES OF FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATIONS...WILL INTERSECT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONES BETWEEN THE 560- AND 500-MB LEVELS AS EVIDENT IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL SUPPORT EFFICIENT SNOW GROWTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO DEPICT ISOTHERMAL LAYERS FEATURING TEMPERATURES AROUND/JUST BELOW 0C BETWEEN THE 900- AND 700-MB LEVELS...WHICH WILL SUPPORT SNOW AGGREGATION. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH THE HIGHEST RATES ACCOMPANYING ANY CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OWING TO THE PRESENCE OF NARROW ELEVATED CAPE LAYERS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO MAY OCCUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. AFTER 03Z...STRONG WARM ADVECTION ACCOMPANYING A NWD-MOVING LOW-LEVEL JET MAX WILL RESULT IN A PRECIPITATION-TYPE TRANSITION FROM S TO N. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WARMER TRAJECTORIES EXTEND INLAND FROM THE MARINE LAYER OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. SLEET/FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PARTIAL/COMPLETE MELTING OF FALLING HYDROMETEORS OCCURS ATOP SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES. A PHASE CHANGE TO RAIN MAY OCCUR WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING. WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION COULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT. ..COHEN.. 12/26/2012 ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 On dual pol, look how the sleet line washes out in NNJ. Matches where I am well (Ridgewood) to 75% snow after being 50/50. cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thundersnow would rock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It looks like the northward progress of the sleet line is slowing just S of NYC per the KDIX dual pol correlation coefficients. Dual pol products are going to be a big help in tracking where the taint line is. How can you tell it is sleet? I don't know how to read radars very well... :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRRR is spitting out some wacky forecasts. Snowfall rates of 6"/ hour? I would not be surprised to see some 2-3'' per hour snowfall rates...perhaps even 4'' per hour rates. Already seeing a great presence of moisture convergence and frotogenesis occurring and that should only increase as the system continues to deepen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 are dual pol products subscription only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Barnsteader Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 http://veloroutes.org/elevation/ 232 feet... Wow great link. Thanks. 680 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 On dual pol, look how the sleet line washes out in NNJ. models had it hugging rt 80 for awhile, hope it stalls. mt holly getting egg in the face, not one model had me under 1 yet thats what they forcasted for me. gfs and euro had 4+ easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 are dual pol products subscription only? Get the radarscope app on your phone or tablet. Well worth the money for access to dual pol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think what will happen is that this warm push will slow as the snow moves north and evaporational cooling takes place. Then like the MD said...another surge will come north and flip people over near and after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxjim207 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GYX bumps it up along the Maine Coast... figured the colder air looks to win out a little more. I am still confident that if you are North and East of Portland along the coast mixing will only be with wintery types. If you live right on the shore you may see rain. Also downeast Maine is the other location to see mixing with rain b/c of the track and front placement. From Portland to Rockland along the coast about a mile inland expect to see 6-10" of wet heavy snow. That's what I have been thinking this whole time. I think the models have had a hard time nailing some things down because of the amount of convection yesterday and today at the time of model initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think what will happen is that this warm push will slow as the snow moves north and evaporational cooling takes place. Then like the MD said...another surge will come north and flip people over near and after midnight. How far does it get? MA/CT border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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