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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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one thing to watch will be the 825-700 layer warm punch. how quickly that manages to move into/across SNE will make a big difference. the actual transition zone from snow to sleet is a good distance further N than the 850 0C line as most models have a good push of mid-level warm air above that layer. the front end thump could be substantial but likewise the transition may be earlier than you'd think.

might be one of those things where it manages to punch all the way to the Pike without much trouble then slows down quite a bit.

just something to keep in mind.

Great points.

Dynamics then again can wash out any questionable layer as seen down south. Seeing that saturation layer to 175 mb on ORH sounding means a lot.

Very true, the NAM would still scare me if I was in the snow area but on the borderline. So strange it's still going warm even 12 hours out.

I probably mix with pingers on this run. It is close.

Worst model ever if it busts.
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Posted this in the obs thread as well....

Not sure what to make of this--but the temps west of the CT river are decidedly cooler than those east of the river. You can see it more clearly and granularly if you zoom in or look at wundermaps. Probably was progged that way, but, to what degree does this impact what's going to happen later on with respect to the advance of warmer air?

26.9/15

Even that map is misleading. It's 26 or 27 here depending on what thermometer you believe on the deck. Station up the road is 26.5...fitting lol

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Will said he and Ekster talked the other night and that GYX had done a recent study up there on the NAM and it's been running 5 degrees too warm on avg and its qpf and placement have been awful. They Said something is wrong with the model scheme right now and they are not using it,

I mentioned a month ago when we had our cold tuck on 12/1 that the NAM was waaay too warm. Something isn't right.

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I mentioned a month ago when we had our cold tuck on 12/1 that the NAM was waaay too warm. Something isn't right.

Yeah, Eckster said they have been discarding the Nam but says the the GFS had been performing well up here

Gun to my head, I will take the GFS for here. The Nam has been horrid lately with low-level temperatures and this may be affecting it's snow output.

the gfs never has like double the snow over the nam for me. Except this year. Something happened with the nam over the last few months and I don't like it.

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Will said he and Ekster talked the other night and that GYX had done a recent study up there on the NAM and it's been running 5 degrees too warm on avg and its qpf and placement have been awful. They Said something is wrong with the model scheme right now and they are not using it,

GYX:

.Short term /thursday through thursday night/...

Surface low pressure expected to be just south of long island by

Early tomorrow morning with snow falling across all of the cwa.

Models having quite a bit of trouble with the details of the

Forecast. The nam is quite warm and brings the coastal front well

Inland with high temperatures in the lower 40s. It initialized the

Developing low center too far north and have decided not to use

It. The gfs and euro are in fairly good agreement...But the 12z

Euro just came in much colder than previous runs and keeps the

Precipitation type all snow...Even for coastal location. Believe

The actual solution will be somewhere in the middle. Expect

Coastal rockingham to see a change to rain early tomorrow morning.

Some of the maine coast may also see a change to rain...But the

Dynamics support a quick 6-8 inches of snow first. As always...The

Location of the coastal front will be the key.

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Hopefully this puts to rest all the NAM nonsense. It is not to be used at all. Don't even look at it

Tolland DPW is out pre-treating the local roads. I just mailed some items at the post office and there are trucks out throwing down salt mixed with some sort of glycol as it green in color on Grant Hill Road and in and around the Town Green. They probably anticipate some icing overnight tonight.

My town does not do this, they just keep me up all night scraping 1/4' of snow off the pavement every 1/2 hour :axe:

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Tolland DPW is out pre-treating the local roads. I just mailed some items at the post office and there are trucks out throwing down salt mixed with some sort of glycol as it green in color on Grant Hill Road and in and around the Town Green. They probably anticipate some icing overnight tonight.

My town does not do this, they just keep me up all night scraping 1/4' of snow off the pavement every 1/2 hour :axe:

Yeah they were out in full force on Xmas Eve doing that too. And the snow still stuck oddly enough lol. I'm just glad they stopped using sand mixed in with the salt. They stopped that BS 3 or 4 yrs ago. I used to complain to them all the time about that. Sand does nothing in snow or ice as cars / plows just kick it off road.and it would get all over your carpet, rugs etc
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It has, Eck said the ARW members are messing it up and to remove them from the sref plumes

I don't think it was Ek that said that and that info isn't correct. Only the p-type algorithm is screwed up so if the snow flag isn't triggered, the SREF snow probs get weighed down. Otherwise there is nothing wrong with the ARW members.

We almost always see this with front end thumps....a pesky warm layer between 700-850mb that is often warmer than progged. I'm leaning towards the colder Euro, but these warm runs aloft are in the back of my mind.

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Tolland DPW is out pre-treating the local roads. I just mailed some items at the post office and there are trucks out throwing down salt mixed with some sort of glycol as it green in color on Grant Hill Road and in and around the Town Green. They probably anticipate some icing overnight tonight.

My town does not do this, they just keep me up all night scraping 1/4' of snow off the pavement every 1/2 hour :axe:

No treatment at all in Coventry?

I sort of miss the old snirt days. Until it came time in April to get it off your lawn :axe: :axe:

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