Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well overcast is in, temps are chilly with dews in the L-M 20s. Glad Phil's back posting. I'm thinking this is really overperforming in western areas of SNE vs east. Jerry's antecedant day rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Close to 1.75", tough read on the SV qpf map Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me. one thing to watch will be the 825-700 layer warm punch. how quickly that manages to move into/across SNE will make a big difference. the actual transition zone from snow to sleet is a good distance further N than the 850 0C line as most models have a good push of mid-level warm air above that layer. the front end thump could be substantial but likewise the transition may be earlier than you'd think. might be one of those things where it manages to punch all the way to the Pike without much trouble then slows down quite a bit. just something to keep in mind. My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders...... Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 one thing to watch will be the 825-700 layer warm punch. how quickly that manages to move into/across SNE will make a big difference. the actual transition zone from snow to sleet is a good distance further N than the 850 0C line as most models have a good push of mid-level warm air above that layer. the front end thump could be substantial but likewise the transition may be earlier than you'd think. might be one of those things where it manages to punch all the way to the Pike without much trouble then slows down quite a bit. just something to keep in mind. This. Globals are cold but -3 at 850 is probably pingers lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 :guitar: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is a Tandy Andy special, Pwats are sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Well overcast is in, temps are chilly with dews in the L-M 20s. Glad Phil's back posting. I'm thinking this is really overperforming in western areas of SNE vs east. Hard to see how the ENE wind doesnt get the coast quickly, regardless of whether the dews are impressively low right now..Here in sw CT I'm guessing it wont take too long of an east wind to jump those dews up from 21 to the 30s in the low levels... Meanwhile the mid-level warm layer concerns being mentioned are also valid. We have a very impressive LLJ in those layers, and I believe just as a bias is to under-do the low level cold drain, the models also can under-do the mid-level warm push.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me. My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders...... Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin...... Somewhere close to 1.50" mike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Dynamics then again can wash out any questionable layer as seen down south. Seeing that saturation layer to 175 mb on ORH sounding means a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 :guitar: Insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Congrats to NNE. But wow they really cut totals south of MHT and along the coast of NH/ME. Interesting. Doesn't really line up well even with the totals BOX has in N MA and S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 :guitar: Does not even come close to matching the BOX map...lol (as in if you could stitch them together) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me. My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders...... Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin...... I think you'll be fine, but it'll be close. Based on some of the new data, it will be hard not to get some pingers here on the west slope, but I'm hopeful I'll be able to keep them at a minimum. Worst case scenario you may taint a bit 9Z-14Z, but I still think it's a nice event for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wundermap of Euro lends support to my question from a few moments ago. Did you photoshop yourself into your profile picture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 :guitar: So it looks like they are pegging the Baldfaces Ridge as the maximum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So it looks like they are pegging the Baldfaces Ridge as the maximum. Might as well add the other piece in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Insane Awesome...and ur lollies are? Little scary down here...huge gradient in merrimack county bit i think i am still 14-18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So, I guess I am getting anywhere from 0-8, with sleet; Will truly be a now casting event to see if cold air wins out. I think alot of peple south of the pike are in for a shock IF get get more than 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like they did a little more tweaking further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 :guitar: Somewhere close to 1.50" mike Wow. Congrats. Thanks. I think you'll be fine, but it'll be close. Based on some of the new data, it will be hard not to get some pingers here on the west slope, but I'm hopeful I'll be able to keep them at a minimum. Worst case scenario you may taint a bit 9Z-14Z, but I still think it's a nice event for your area. Thanks, Mitch. I was running skew-t's on twisterdata. Could see some yucky omments around h27 or so (from the 12z GFS). But, I'm really not good at reading those and I'm not sure how dynamics might help compensate for iffy soundings. Meanwhile, have just dropped out a couple "now on the ground" markers. One in an open field and one about 50' from the house. Hopefully, we'll see them buried between now and April. As an OT comment, one of the interesting things to note out here is the various heights of the holes from the maple taps. You can get a good sense of the different snow depths that occured from over the years even if you can't tell which height was from which year. 26.7/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BOX has 10-18? here, GYX 2-4? Yeah, you are not getting 2-4" (GYX didn't drop their warnings for coastal NH either so I don't get why that map is so low), or 18" for that matter. I don't know why they have to be so different. I would forecast 8-12" or 8-14" near you. edit: They fixed it I guess? That was weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here are my thoughts. Moderate/high confidence, but biggest trouble zones are along the I-95 corridor and then once you get into central New England. The main focus is on Connecticut and the immediately adjacent areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Congrats to NNE. But wow they really cut totals south of MHT and along the coast of NH/ME. Interesting. Doesn't really line up well even with the totals BOX has in N MA and S NH. Was thinking that SE NH really got cut. Storm is over performing down south. Wonder the reasoning Edit: nevermind - back to the love for us. Weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Nice map Quincy. It's amazing how long we've known each other....since you're 14 I think. Now you've been a full fledged met for a few years already. Where does the time go...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like snow right on schedule. 3:00 start time NYC , CT by 4:00 spreading NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Here are my thoughts. Moderate/high confidence, but biggest trouble zones are along the I-95 corridor and then once you get into central New England. The main focus is on Connecticut and the immediately adjacent areas. Looks good, hope it verifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Treacherous drive home for me later tonight...hope I can make it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Treacherous drive home for me later tonight...hope I can make it... Drive fast , take chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Drive fast , take chances And turn erratically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 18z NAM has initialized with a low over SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.