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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Close to 1.75", tough read on the SV qpf map

Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me.

one thing to watch will be the 825-700 layer warm punch. how quickly that manages to move into/across SNE will make a big difference. the actual transition zone from snow to sleet is a good distance further N than the 850 0C line as most models have a good push of mid-level warm air above that layer. the front end thump could be substantial but likewise the transition may be earlier than you'd think.

might be one of those things where it manages to punch all the way to the Pike without much trouble then slows down quite a bit.

just something to keep in mind.

My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders......

Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin......

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one thing to watch will be the 825-700 layer warm punch. how quickly that manages to move into/across SNE will make a big difference. the actual transition zone from snow to sleet is a good distance further N than the 850 0C line as most models have a good push of mid-level warm air above that layer. the front end thump could be substantial but likewise the transition may be earlier than you'd think.

might be one of those things where it manages to punch all the way to the Pike without much trouble then slows down quite a bit.

just something to keep in mind.

This. Globals are cold but -3 at 850 is probably pingers lol

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Well overcast is in, temps are chilly with dews in the L-M 20s.

Glad Phil's back posting.

I'm thinking this is really overperforming in western areas of SNE vs east.

Hard to see how the ENE wind doesnt get the coast quickly, regardless of whether the dews are impressively low right now..Here in sw CT I'm guessing it wont take too long of an east wind to jump those dews up from 21 to the 30s in the low levels... Meanwhile the mid-level warm layer concerns being mentioned are also valid. We have a very impressive LLJ in those layers, and I believe just as a bias is to under-do the low level cold drain, the models also can under-do the mid-level warm push..

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Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me.

My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders......

Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin......

Somewhere close to 1.50" mike

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Jeff--what's it showing out this way? I know you've got like double me.

My irrational fear. Like walking under ladders......

Meanwhlie--managed to catch a few renegade flakes while stacking wood just now. Early flakes spell over producers. Just sayin......

I think you'll be fine, but it'll be close. Based on some of the new data, it will be hard not to get some pingers here on the west slope, but I'm hopeful I'll be able to keep them at a minimum. Worst case scenario you may taint a bit 9Z-14Z, but I still think it's a nice event for your area.

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:guitar: :guitar:

StormTotalSnowFcst2.png

Somewhere close to 1.50" mike

Wow. Congrats. Thanks.

I think you'll be fine, but it'll be close. Based on some of the new data, it will be hard not to get some pingers here on the west slope, but I'm hopeful I'll be able to keep them at a minimum. Worst case scenario you may taint a bit 9Z-14Z, but I still think it's a nice event for your area.

Thanks, Mitch. I was running skew-t's on twisterdata. Could see some yucky omments around h27 or so (from the 12z GFS). But, I'm really not good at reading those and I'm not sure how dynamics might help compensate for iffy soundings.

Meanwhile, have just dropped out a couple "now on the ground" markers. One in an open field and one about 50' from the house. Hopefully, we'll see them buried between now and April.

As an OT comment, one of the interesting things to note out here is the various heights of the holes from the maple taps. You can get a good sense of the different snow depths that occured from over the years even if you can't tell which height was from which year.

26.7/15

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BOX has 10-18? here, GYX 2-4?

Yeah, you are not getting 2-4" (GYX didn't drop their warnings for coastal NH either so I don't get why that map is so low), or 18" for that matter. I don't know why they have to be so different. I would forecast 8-12" or 8-14" near you.

edit: They fixed it I guess? That was weird.

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Congrats to NNE. But wow they really cut totals south of MHT and along the coast of NH/ME. Interesting. Doesn't really line up well even with the totals BOX has in N MA and S NH.

Was thinking that SE NH really got cut. Storm is over performing down south. Wonder the reasoning

Edit: nevermind - back to the love for us. Weird

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