moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm encouraged by the potential for a shift colder--perhaps keep the taint away. If that happens, of course then the worry comes to whether the qpf will be substantial enough to make up for crappy ratios. Dave and I need to have a few beets...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah... dry slot is going to come in fast and furious south of the Pike. Very SWFE in that respect for parts of SNE. It's once you get into the Berkshires and Monadnocks to PWM points northwest where everything lines up to keep crushing cold conveyor snows after the initial surge that rides the strong warm advection on the LLJ. Leaving for Killington in about an hour. I'm totally weenieing out... 2 laptops at the ready! Can I come? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the dry slot on those? How can you tell where it is located? Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in. Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm encouraged by the potential for a shift colder--perhaps keep the taint away. If that happens, of course then the worry comes to whether the qpf will be substantial enough to make up for crappy ratios. Dave and I need to have a few beets...... Yeah god forbid that may cut into your qof total..................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Can I come? Coast should rip some good gusts. Nothing more fun than ripping mangled flakes with a 50 knot gust for shore dwellers. I don't know what I'm more stoked about... the snowstorm or the skiing. Paul and my friends are probably going to absolutely kill me tonight with my weather geek out fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Isn't Keene a snow hole because of the mountains in the area? I'm on mobile but the local meso models show the downslope areas well. I think there are gonna b 2 gradients. One (obv) nw of cfront) and another where upslope and down slope areas could be extreme diff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in. Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z. So by 09z dryslot is approching srn NH, but notice the lift behind it trying to regenerate precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I was just playing around with the soundings from Twisterdata from the 12z GFS. Places north and west of 495 never really get above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in. Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z. Great explanation - thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the best location within 2 hours of Boston. My wife just gave me the blessing but doesn't wnt to come. Is Keene a snow hole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 What a fantastic bust in the good direction for the folks in and around dc and baltimore;..........always fun when that happens. Yeah, it's p-type telling perhaps for areas up this way. I'm looking around at obs and going, "huh" - it's barely 30 around interior zones after a morning of full sun, and DPs are in the teens. We have +PP situated N of the area. I'm just kind of flummoxed at where the NAM is getting all this warm push into that environment, from. I tell you what, if the NAM wins that - wow. But I don't think it will of course considering that its already busting warm all over the place due to its apparent inability to handle this system et al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the best location within 2 hours of Boston. My wife just gave me the blessing but doesn't wnt to come. Is Keene a snow hole? Head north into NH. Maybe Ossippee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the best location within 2 hours of Boston. My wife just gave me the blessing but doesn't wnt to come. Is Keene a snow hole? Coastalwx's parent's house on Lake Winnipesaukee or eek's hotel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe CONway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 you know what is interesting if perhaps telling also is that the high country of W VA and western areas of VA, are having trouble staying rain; according to intellicast's p-type algorithms. That region of the cyclone is actually about to enter the 700mb dry slot properly, having never really warmed very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's funny how the GFS wraps so much dry air into the storm around 700mb. That's why I think dry slot overperforms and will probably be a bit farther NW than you'd think with that kind of track. 700mb is broad so the best forcing winds up far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the best location within 2 hours of Boston. My wife just gave me the blessing but doesn't wnt to come. Is Keene a snow hole? How about the area just S of Ossipee, NH? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Latest and pretty much final thoughts. Here are a few numbers I am tossing around: KBOS: 1" KBDL: 5" KORH: 8" KPSF: 10" KHVN: 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Head north into NH. Maybe Ossippee? How far ia hanover or north xonway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I should be up there...Jerry could have stayed..lol. But, I'm just getting settled with the little one. This hurts not being there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where is the best location within 2 hours of Boston. My wife just gave me the blessing but doesn't wnt to come. Is Keene a snow hole? Go to Jaffrey, NH...or New Ipswich Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Coast should rip some good gusts. Nothing more fun than ripping mangled flakes with a 50 knot gust for shore dwellers. I don't know what I'm more stoked about... the snowstorm or the skiing. Paul and my friends are probably going to absolutely kill me tonight with my weather geek out fest. Meh nothing exciting about a cold wind driven rain. Thinking about going up to Okemo or Killington Friday to ski. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 26, 2012 Author Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's funny how the GFS wraps so much dry air into the storm around 700mb. That's why I think dry slot overperforms and will probably be a bit farther NW than you'd think with that kind of track. 700mb is broad so the best forcing winds up far NW. well, "if" that is right, sure... It'll be interesting to now-cast for that. If the model(s) are wrong to be displacing the cold as much as they have been, that would feed-back into the cyclone's deep layer structure - ... effectively making that product wrong. But we'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm drooling for you interior folk. Enjoy this one, especially NNE peeps. It's official. I'm hitting the highway to the foothills of Maine. Just got off the phone with my buddy who lives in Naples right by long lake. ECSTATIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ossipee may work best. My friend had a place in Wakefield near there but it takes some work to get the winter mode working and it's on a dirt road...could take an extra day to leave so I'll opt for a town location somewhere. Lakes region....Sanford, fryeburg, ossipee.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 How far ia hanover or north xonway North Conway is probably 2.5 for Jerry. You want to be on the east side of the mtns for this. My area near the lake actually downslopes with NE winds from the Ossipees sometimes. Usually near Gunstock and north to Conway gets crushed with this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Meh nothing exciting about a cold wind driven rain. Thinking about going up to Okemo or Killington Friday to ski. Shoot me a text. Skiing Thursday and Friday at Kmart. May stay Saturday too depending on how I feel after Friday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ossipee may work best. My friend had a place in Wakefield near there but it takes some work to get the winter mode working and it's on a dirt road...could take an extra day to leave so I'll opt for a town location somewhere. Lakes region....Sanford, fryeburg, ossipee.... I think those are good choices. Stay SE of the Ossipee mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Damn the GGEM is cold!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Go to Jaffrey, NH...or New Ipswich What's Jeffrey's 3 letter code? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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