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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I think the entire N part of CT up into Rays area is an incredibly hard forecast. I :weenie: out and say that Albany is wrong but that's solely because I want more. I understand that for my hood out that way this could literally be 2" or 12" (or maybe even more). These are the kind of storms that made me not want to go to met. school. I'd honestly have to forecast 2-12" for my house tonight lol.

No way you're only getting 2. I say 5-9 or 6-10 should do it for where people live in the NW hill towns. Even if someone pulls a 4 inch or 12 inch amount, the forecast would still verify so you don't necessarily need a huge range.

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Even Boxing Day had an H7 low south of us and we know what happened then.

It will be an intersting storm. I'm actually most interested in Kevin and Ray's totals..because those two may be the toughest forecast. Bust potential there.

Eh, perhaps someone has a reanalysis source and can dig up the 700mb charts and other data layers but from my recollection there wasn't "dry slot" by definition, but "dry slot" simply because of shredding on rad - but precip can cut off for a myriad of other reasons of course, and that could give folks the illusion that were happening.

The low was a deep SE U.S. seaboard detonator, and the ensuing deep layer vortex structure passed just outside Cape Cod ( sfc at ~975mb), and that path really argues against the type of dry slot we really mean when we invoke it in present discussion.

I tell you what though - up here in Ayer over to FIT, we had some kind of odd dry intrusion from the N constantly evaporating the column and it deeply cut into our snow totals up this way for that reason alone - having nothing to do with dry slotting in the sense of the Norwegian-Cyclone model. We got royally screwed for snow totals. I had maybe 5" of what looked like snizzle out of that storm; so too did a Met friend who lives up on an 850' ridge line over in Fitchburg.

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Eh, perhaps someone has a reanalysis source and can dig up the 700mb charts and other data layers but from my recollection there wasn't "dry slot" by definition, but "dry slot" simply because of shredding on rad - but precip can cut off for a myriad of other reasons of course, and that could give folks the illusion that were happening.

The low was a deep SE U.S. seaboard detonator, and the ensuing deep layer vortex structure passed just outside Cape Cod ( sfc at ~975mb), and that path really argues against the type of dry slot we really mean when we invoke it in present discussion.

I tell you what though - up here in Ayer over to FIT, we had some kind of odd dry intrusion from the N constantly evaporating the column and it deeply cut into our snow totals up this way for that reason alone - having nothing to do with dry slotting in the sense of the Norwegian-Cyclone model. We got royally screwed for snow totals. I had maybe 5" of what looked like snizzle out of that storm; so too did a Met friend who lives up on an 850' ridge line over in Fitchburg.

The interior had 50kts north wind...could very well have been downsloping too.

I just want to be clear so people don't always fear. A dryslot does not mean complete ending of precip. In this case, it likely seperates the big WCB of snow from showery precip.

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The interior had 50kts north wind...could very well have been downsloping too.

I just want to be clear so people don't always fear. A dryslot does not mean complete ending of precip. In this case, it likely seperates the big WCB of snow from showery precip.

post-33-0-02067700-1356540912_thumb.gif

post-33-0-47363800-1356540921_thumb.gif

post-33-0-16534800-1356540929_thumb.gif

post-33-0-07527600-1356540940_thumb.gif

Where is the dry slot on those? How can you tell where it is located?

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MQE could get a nice dump with 635' elevation. I may be like 34 with mash potatoes while they are ripping at 32F or 31.5

Bob may squeeze out a couple of inches possibly. I'm sort of bearish for the coast, but like I said yesterday...a good high to the north will do good things for us. Still, the Cape is 40 with NE winds right now. With winds rapidly increasing from the water...I have a tough time envisioning several inches for us. I'm capping my totals around 2" here. I wouldn't be shocked at just over an inch or 3-4". This antecedent airmass is not good for us.

I think the wind off the water could tell the tale for this storm. I'd like this storm more if the winds weren't going to be as strong as forecasted..

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