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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Not for your area. Your snow comes from the thump... if things break right you might get like 8 or 9 inches I think. Then some glaze, pellets, and maybe even some rain as the junk rotates through.

I didn't specifically mean our area though everything does continue tickling SE with each model run. While none of interior CT sees plain rain.. I do think we'll see some nice sleet and zr for awhile before ending as a few hours of snow
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Fwiw, even the NAM has the 700 mb center S of CT-RI, it's just that it's a broad sfc - larger than normal, encompassing all the way to ALB; which looks a bit off but we'll see.

I could see it being like N Ohio along the Mohawk Trail, and going to shrapnel on radar of Kevin for a taint or two. But the there is some indication that a deformation band/remnant wrap around could collapse back through western and SW zones in the latter part of the event folks -

Even Boxing Day had an H7 low south of us and we know what happened then.

It will be an intersting storm. I'm actually most interested in Kevin and Ray's totals..because those two may be the toughest forecast. Bust potential there.

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Even Boxing Day had an H7 low south of us and we know what happened then.

It will be an intersting storm. I'm actually most interested in Kevin and Ray's totals..because those two may be the toughest forecast. Bust potential there.

How about Bob's area/Dedham?

I am also curious to see how MQE ends up.

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Even Boxing Day had an H7 low south of us and we know what happened then.

It will be an intersting storm. I'm actually most interested in Kevin and Ray's totals..because those two may be the toughest forecast. Bust potential there.

I think the entire N part of CT up into Rays area is an incredibly hard forecast. I :weenie: out and say that Albany is wrong but that's solely because I want more. I understand that for my hood out that way this could literally be 2" or 12" (or maybe even more). These are the kind of storms that made me not want to go to met. school. I'd honestly have to forecast 2-12" for my house tonight lol.

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I didn't specifically mean our area though everything does continue tickling SE with each model run. While none of interior CT sees plain rain.. I do think we'll see some nice sleet and zr for awhile before ending as a few hours of snow

I doubt you get accumulating snow after initial thump. I still wouldn't be shocked if you tickled 34 tomorrow morning lol.

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Awesome! Yeah not much worry about anything but heavy, heavy snow there. The do really well on SE inflow that comes up the CT Valley between NH/VT and will bury those 2,000-4,000ft elevations in there. I mean Killington's access road is all like 1,600-2,200ft to begin with.

Lots and lots of moisture advecting into some surprisingly cold air... the forcing should be prolific. I couldn't believe I hit 0F last night for a low. It was really surprisingly cold. Up to 14F at 11:30.

Yeah I'mn thinking 12-20. They do great in these setups... Mount Snow too. Ripping the easterly flow initially is perfect and then they'll be cold enough for plenty of good dendrites on the backside deformation/cold conveyor.

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I think the entire N part of CT up into Rays area is an incredibly hard forecast. I :weenie: out and say that Albany is wrong but that's solely because I want more. I understand that for my hood out that way this could literally be 2" or 12" (or maybe even more). These are the kind of storms that made me not want to go to met. school. I'd honestly have to forecast 2-12" for my house tonight lol.

7

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Its been a while since I've been stoked on a synoptic storm... recent 12z guidance just continues to look awesome. That SE-NE-NW wind shift is going to be awesome. Just sustained drilling of mountains. Maybe 6-10" of moisture dense snow, then winds go NW with orographics and snow growth, we top on another 3-6" of fluff out of the last 0.2 qpf?

I think you may be 25% too low for your neck of the woods. I see at least 1.5"+ QPF and I see ratios above 13:1 overall with upside

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How about Bob's area/Dedham?

I am also curious to see how MQE ends up.

MQE could get a nice dump with 635' elevation. I may be like 34 with mash potatoes while they are ripping at 32F or 31.5

Bob may squeeze out a couple of inches possibly. I'm sort of bearish for the coast, but like I said yesterday...a good high to the north will do good things for us. Still, the Cape is 40 with NE winds right now. With winds rapidly increasing from the water...I have a tough time envisioning several inches for us. I'm capping my totals around 2" here. I wouldn't be shocked at just over an inch or 3-4". This antecedent airmass is not good for us.

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I don't think its a tough forecast for mby.....6-10".....open-shut.

I agree with that. I'd sort of keep the 6-10 from north and west of 128 down through the CT/Mass border I think. Probably tickle it south to include Tolland (as much as that pains me to say) and also C/N Litchfield Co CT. Decent 3-6 for I-84 corridor around Hartford and 1-3 for the shoreline?

Once you get NW of Will up toward KORE/Greenfield and adjacent VT and NH and most of the Berkshires along and north of the Pike I think you can start upping to 10-18 excluding the normal shadow spots.

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I think the entire N part of CT up into Rays area is an incredibly hard forecast. I :weenie: out and say that Albany is wrong but that's solely because I want more. I understand that for my hood out that way this could literally be 2" or 12" (or maybe even more). These are the kind of storms that made me not want to go to met. school. I'd honestly have to forecast 2-12" for my house tonight lol.

You should do well in NW CT. At least IMHO.

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Well my thoughts are holding true. Even though there is going to be a mix at the coast in Maine, I am confident it wont be for too long and we will see Snow to start, mix a little with Sleet & Rain within 1-5mi of the coast then we all switch back to moderate snow on the backside for a good 3-6hrs. I am still expecting from the shoreline inland to about 5mi's in a total of 5-8". Then totals jump up inland from there 10-18" of snow depending on where you are. Also, some places in the NW Mountains will see 20".

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I agree with that. I'd sort of keep the 6-10 from north and west of 128 down through the CT/Mass border I think. Probably tickle it south to include Tolland (as much as that pains me to say) and also C/N Litchfield Co CT. Decent 3-6 for I-84 corridor around Hartford and 1-3 for the shoreline?

Once you get NW of Will up toward KORE/Greenfield and adjacent VT and NH and most of the Berkshires along and north of the Pike I think you can start upping to 10-18 excluding the normal shadow spots.

You: 6-10"

Kevin: hears 10-12"

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