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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne

There will definitely be an advancing dryslot up in the CT area. A lot of your snow will fall on this initial WAA. An hour or 2 here and there will mean all the world of difference in snow totals. I think you'll change to sleet as the dryslot approaches and snow growth craps the bed. You may never change over to true rain in your area.

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While at the onset Connecticut will likely see snow, Dixon said, the track of the storm will bring a mix of precipitation including sleet, then freezing rain and a cold rain. But because the storm's center is likely going to track right over the center of the state, roughly following Interstate 84, some areas of the state will experience far more icy precipitation, while others will experience a fairly rapid progression to plain rain.

what?

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It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

I agree, around 18z as the low occludes S of LI.

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It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

No I meant its coming for all of SNe and prob makes it up near NH border.. But it always slows down and tends to back build as it approaches New eng. we see it all the time. You can picture all the posts about already. I think some interpret dry slot that precip ends and storm is over. Sure the heaviest snow is over but many times you can get several more inches of snow as Ull rotates thru or sleet or zr or whatever . I really would love to get a nice inch of sleet and then glaze on top of that before it flips back snow at the end
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It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

I'm not sure I agree there. the 500mb vorticity and associate jet max all pass safely S of the region. Dry slots unzip on the east side of 700mb low centers, and given to the former, I'm having difficulty visualizing a 700mb center going sufficiently W of the region to pull a dry slot through.

I almost visualize the dry slot tickling CT and RI and then it terminates its latitude punch at there, eventually pinching off east.

It'll be an interesting now-cast for that feature.

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Disaster evening commute for CT? It could be pounding +SN 5-8pm in at least the northern half of CT...

Probably not as bad as it could be given that a lot of people are off, working reduced schedules, schools are all off, and so forth. Commutes this morning even on 95 were a breeze, so not many (relative to a normal weekday) working today.

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Probably not as bad as it could be given that a lot of people are off, working reduced schedules, schools are all off, and so forth. Commutes this morning even on 95 were a breeze, so not many (relative to a normal weekday) working today.

Yeah I was going to mention that. Could still be bad, but hopefully a little better than it would have been.

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I'm not sure I agree there. the 500mb vorticity and associate jet max all pass safely S of the region. Dry slots unzip on the east side of 700mb low centers, and given to the former, I'm having difficulty visualizing a 700mb center going sufficiently W of the region to pull a dry slot through.

I almost visualize the dry slot tickling CT and RI and then it terminates it latitude punch at there, eventually pinching off east.

It'll be an interesting now-cast for that feature.

Well I did mention precip will try to regenerate, a dryslot does not mean precip shuts off....it means the deep lift through a saturated layer isn't there....hence showery precip. I know you know this, but this is for others. I do think precip will regenerate, but we'll probably taint at that point south of the pike and even towards the NH border. Think more showery or banded stuff, not the wall of snow moving in tonight.

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To be clear I have the midlevel deformation (the death bands of Oct 11, Jan 11, and Dec 10) well to our north. I think that's where the great ratios will be. Like Ryan said, we will get into the cold conveyor snows, but I'm not convinced of great ratios for us. I don't see a reason to go more than 10-12:1 right now.

Thanks.

Td here is about 18F... hope it does not present any sort of issue

Don't think it will be an issue, but I suspect there will be some evaporation for a bit (23.9/14 here). Ran to Home Depot in Greenfield an hour ago and the temp differential between kpit and there was 5*. Makes for questions as to how the mix plays out tonight.

weird to think there is a strong storm headed our way...it's bright blue sapphire skies here...upper teens for lows this morning, first time this season, i think...not looking like much snow for me...i have a friend who lives right on the line between sturbridge and brimfield...i may ask if i can sleep at their house tonight in exchange for shoveling their driveway in the morning...

Overcast and thickening here.

Our town was practicing yesterday morning...lol

Gotta get the snow blower out of the shed and fired up.

Went to get mine gassed and ready. Pulled the start cord and it snapped, ftl. Electric state works, ftw.

Meanwhile, hoping to hold both taint and dryslot at bay.

24/14

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I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne

It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

Yeah... dry slot is going to come in fast and furious south of the Pike. Very SWFE in that respect for parts of SNE. It's once you get into the Berkshires and Monadnocks to PWM points northwest where everything lines up to keep crushing cold conveyor snows after the initial surge that rides the strong warm advection on the LLJ.

I'm drooling for you interior folk. Enjoy this one, especially NNE peeps.

Leaving for Killington in about an hour. I'm totally weenieing out... 2 laptops at the ready!

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Its been a while since I've been stoked on a synoptic storm... recent 12z guidance just continues to look awesome. That SE-NE-NW wind shift is going to be awesome. Just sustained drilling of mountains. Maybe 6-10" of moisture dense snow, then winds go NW with orographics and snow growth, we top on another 3-6" of fluff out of the last 0.2 qpf?

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Probably not as bad as it could be given that a lot of people are off, working reduced schedules, schools are all off, and so forth. Commutes this morning even on 95 were a breeze, so not many (relative to a normal weekday) working today.

95 was a disaster from Branford to New Haven about 45 minutes ago. Tons of holiday traffic. Should be better by PM commute I'd imagine.

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No I meant its coming for all of SNe and prob makes it up near NH border.. But it always slows down and tends to back build as it approaches New eng. we see it all the time. You can picture all the posts about already. I think some interpret dry slot that precip ends and storm is over. Sure the heaviest snow is over but many times you can get several more inches of snow as Ull rotates thru or sleet or zr or whatever . I really would love to get a nice inch of sleet and then glaze on top of that before it flips back snow at the end

Not for your area. Your snow comes from the thump... if things break right you might get like 8 or 9 inches I think. Then some glaze, pellets, and maybe even some rain as the junk rotates through.

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Well I did mention precip will try to regenerate, a dryslot does not mean precip shuts off....it means the deep lift through a saturated layer isn't there....hence showery precip. I know you know this, but this is for others. I do think precip will regenerate, but we'll probably taint at that point south of the pike and even towards the NH border. Think more showery or banded stuff, not the wall of snow moving in tonight.

Fwiw, even the NAM has the 700 mb center S of CT-RI, it's just that it's a broad sfc - larger than normal, encompassing all the way to ALB; which looks a bit off but we'll see.

I could see it being like N Ohio along the Mohawk Trail, and going to shrapnel on radar down where Kevin is for a taint or two. But the there is some indication that a deformation band/remnant wrap around could collapse back through western and SW zones in the latter part of the event folks -

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It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

Hearing this is pants tent material for us in SE NH

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Leaving for Killington in about an hour. I'm totally weenieing out... 2 laptops at the ready!

Awesome! Yeah not much worry about anything but heavy, heavy snow there. The do really well on SE inflow that comes up the CT Valley between NH/VT and will bury those 2,000-4,000ft elevations in there. I mean Killington's access road is all like 1,600-2,200ft to begin with.

Lots and lots of moisture advecting into some surprisingly cold air... the forcing should be prolific. I couldn't believe I hit 0F last night for a low. It was really surprisingly cold. Up to 14F at 11:30.

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