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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Your under a warning from BOX...every model I've seen gives you at least 5-6" except for the NAM, why do you think the valley will see so little?

Past experience and note the NAM map below my original post. 2-4 seems much more likely here IMO.

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Past experience and note the NAM map below my original post. 2-4 seems much more likely here IMO.

If that map is right the valley gets completely screwed. I'm guessing that would be due to BL problems? Either way, the EURO being so cold along with the cold verifying so far south gives me confidence in higher amounts.

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I'm not criticizing, just disagreeing. They're the experts...what do I know compared to them? It's just weird that no model shows less than 6" for the Cornwall area and they have them at 1-2".

That's the thing... they don't. The computer generates the graphics and the forecast for all the points in between the little plus signs which are the forecast grid points they care about. Basically those are the PFM sites. I think they can tweak the contouring a bit, but I doubt when it's busy they have the time to get cute with it, especially if they're not familiar with every little weenie spot.

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I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne

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I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!!

I agree that they are all going to bust low - but living here for 24 years....the safe thing to do in the Springfield media is go LOW, LOW, LOW because the valley - over 80% of the time, does worse than whatever the models are showing. I wouldn't be surprised if we got 1-3", honestly...despite the model guidance - whether it be dry slot, warmer than models are showing, whatever. If I was one of them, I would probably make the same call.

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I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne

It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack.

There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding.

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