Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Forecasts are gonna be blown either direction all over the place with this. That's why criticizing forecasts one way or another is pretty useless. Let the cards fall where they may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They might be spot on, especially in the lower valley. Your under a warning from BOX...every model I've seen gives you at least 5-6" except for the NAM, why do you think the valley will see so little? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I edited a map from PSU E-Wall to show the 12z 4km NAM snowfall forecast up close for the Northeast with the scale. What's the scale...inches? If so................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No Ginxy so far? Reading on my phone, busy day at work. Break out the plows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12 pack brew your choice. You know what I like They sell Zimas by the twelve pack? A bet I hope to lose. So if I get 12" or you over 8" I pay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Will the dry slot get to us up here? Is there a chance that it fills in? Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's why criticizing forecasts one way or another is pretty useless. Let the cards fall where they may. DTs was as SI says Redneckdonculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM continues to be very cold...it doesn't flip over to pellets here until after 12z tomorrow morning. Its not slow with the onset either. RGEM is often warm...if the EURO holds serve, I'll go 6-10" for a final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Reading on my phone, busy day at work. Break out the plows Our town was practicing yesterday morning...lol Gotta get the snow blower out of the shed and fired up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Your under a warning from BOX...every model I've seen gives you at least 5-6" except for the NAM, why do you think the valley will see so little? Past experience and note the NAM map below my original post. 2-4 seems much more likely here IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 They sell Zimas by the twelve pack? A bet I hope to lose. So if I get 12" or you over 8" I pay up. Yes.Hopefully you're still not drinking boxes of Strawberry blush wine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Either NAM scores a coup or it should get sh.tcanned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Past experience and note the NAM map below my original post. 2-4 seems much more likely here IMO. If that map is right the valley gets completely screwed. I'm guessing that would be due to BL problems? Either way, the EURO being so cold along with the cold verifying so far south gives me confidence in higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's why criticizing forecasts one way or another is pretty useless. Let the cards fall where they may. I'm not criticizing, just disagreeing. They're the experts...what do I know compared to them? It's just weird that no model shows less than 6" for the Cornwall area and they have them at 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That's why criticizing forecasts one way or another is pretty useless. Let the cards fall where they may. Strongly agree - this storm is a beast and has a mind of it's own for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yes. Hopefully you're still not drinking boxes of Strawberry blush wine If they sold Sam Adams Fezziwig in bulk I would be pumped, but reg Sam or Harpoon winter would do NAM is so freakish. Love that 4km map. 24" on Monadnock/Winchendon? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow 6" right over my house! From 9-10pm lol Bust for the better for us on the way me thinks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM is often warm...if the EURO holds serve, I'll go 6-10" for a final. You could cash on from mega CF for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where are you located? Amherst, NH at the 101A and 122 intersection... Basically, the Amherst, NH and Milford, NH town lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GFS is colder in my hood, the sleet is closer than it appears Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM is often warm...if the EURO holds serve, I'll go 6-10" for a final. I'm surprised by the pessimism and agree with you with the rgem. Ncep threw nam under the bus with the 12z. Time to forget about it being warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lol ORh , snow growth anyone? 3 per hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm not criticizing, just disagreeing. They're the experts...what do I know compared to them? It's just weird that no model shows less than 6" for the Cornwall area and they have them at 1-2". That's the thing... they don't. The computer generates the graphics and the forecast for all the points in between the little plus signs which are the forecast grid points they care about. Basically those are the PFM sites. I think they can tweak the contouring a bit, but I doubt when it's busy they have the time to get cute with it, especially if they're not familiar with every little weenie spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Repeat of Feb. 22-23, 2009? GYX latest map has much of the Maine foothills at 14-18". You are gonna rake there. Hvy hvy generator use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What a beautiful storm. We're gonna rock 9pm-2am...2"/hour is likely IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Is there a chance of any thundersnow in SNE tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!! I agree that they are all going to bust low - but living here for 24 years....the safe thing to do in the Springfield media is go LOW, LOW, LOW because the valley - over 80% of the time, does worse than whatever the models are showing. I wouldn't be surprised if we got 1-3", honestly...despite the model guidance - whether it be dry slot, warmer than models are showing, whatever. If I was one of them, I would probably make the same call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wackymann Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 My family is planning a trip west on the Mass Pike/NYS Thruway. Any thoughts on when this storm will be over would be much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I can envision the worried dryslot posts tonight already. Folks looking at how fast its advancing north etc. just know that it is coming for most places but it always slows down as it gets into New England, and even if precip tapers down it never fully stops and more is modeled to form and rotate From Sw to Ne It's definitely going to rip through. Sure, they'll be showery precip behind it, but the DS might almost be a blessing for some if they want snowpack. There looks to be another round of lift as the ULL approaches from the south and 850 LLJ lifts up and over the cold across NE MA, SE NH, and srn ME. Very strong frontogenesis in the low levels there near 850 and below. I wouldn't be shocked if someone had a rumble of thunder in ectrl NH and into adjacent ME. Text sounding indicate conditionally unstable with weak theta-e folding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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