wxmanmitch Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Albany has us 2-4", the newest HRRR has 6" OTG just by 10 pm tonight. This is going to be the kind of storm where forecasts are going to bust all over the place. Definitely nice and chilly right now though, 26/12. I'm not buying ALY's forecast map at all. It doesn't even match up with BOX's map on the eastern boundary. I think you'll get a nice 6-10" event in your neck of the woods. For other's here is ALY's forecast map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Depends on the location for NWS Albany. They upped mine to 10-14, but yeah, looks like they may have trimmed some in the SE corner of their coverage area. That area is still under a WWA, so they can still tweak the numbers a bit if necessary without changing headlines. So the GFS looks decent last night, the Euro looked a little colder, the GFS looked a little colder this morning and Albany and Boston cut back their accumulations? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z is 7am in winter/8am in Summer...12z=noon in England. The 12z models run off of 12z data so therefore come out after 12z. That's about as much as I know lol. Ah thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS 988mb over Ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow 6" right over my house! From 9-10pm lol Lock that up lol. My god what a weenie model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling. I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low. Repeat of Feb. 22-23, 2009? GYX latest map has much of the Maine foothills at 14-18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 As an addition, it doesn't seem to jive with kbos's map much at all...I would expect some changes this afternoon. Depends on the location for NWS Albany. They upped mine to 10-14, but yeah, looks like they may have trimmed some in the SE corner of their coverage area. That area is still under a WWA, so they can still tweak the numbers a bit if necessary without changing headlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm not buying ALY's forecast map at all. It doesn't even match up with BOX's map on the eastern boundary. I think you'll get a nice 6-10" event in your neck of the woods. For other's here is ALY's forecast map: I'm on the cusp of the 2-4 and 4-6, if I get 4" ill scrub their toilets at the office They have 1-2" almost to cornwall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NECN map has pretty much all of Essex county in the big ice threat zone, seem likely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looks like the GFS ticked about 20 miles NW on this 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looks like the GFS ticked about 20 miles NW on this 12z run Models will wobble but in essence, similar to 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS 988mb over Ack Over ACK? That should be good for some in SNE and probably is the nail in the coffin for a lot of us up here to stay all snow. How fast is the storm moving and do you think we get snow continuing heavy into the evening? I'm waiting for the moment when you lollie yourself to 20+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sticking with the 6-10" I locked last night. Getting 10"+ out of this before the DS/ping come seems like it would require everything to break right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looks like snow moing into PA now, shold be in philly soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Sticking with the 6-10" I locked last night. Getting 10"+ out of this before the DS/ping come seems like it would require everything to break right. Will the dry slot get to us up here? Is there a chance that it fills in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GFS might have tickled a bit colder in mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This might be the first time I've ever seen Monson,MA in a WSW while Ray, Will and I are in a WWA for 2-4". I can't get over that fact. I know in the end it doesn't matter, but I hate how there is a WWA for 2-4", P+C shows 4-8". Depending on who the public listens to I could see a range of 2-12" talking to people today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No Ginxy so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Snow won't even get to NYC till 3:00 pm or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Will the dry slot get to us up here? Is there a chance that it fills in? I don't know if we're far enough north to escape. What I do hope for is that the CF makes it out to like 495 and we get some enhancement from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 30/17 dewpoint at bdr continues to drop on a beautiful drain down the Housatonic, NWS has just started adding more snow and sleet in the forecast here. noticed that too...I smell a good bust for us-a better bust up north. Bet northern 1/2 of CT really cashes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WMASShole1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Youre really underestimating this one. You're in like for 12+ up there Case of beets? Maybe I hit double digits... Could be close 8" for you is my thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!! Forecasts are gonna be blown either direction all over the place with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!! could be: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Case of beets? Maybe I hit double digits... Could be close 8" for you is my thinking 12 pack brew your choice. You know what I like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Over ACK? That should be good for some in SNE and probably is the nail in the coffin for a lot of us up here to stay all snow. How fast is the storm moving and do you think we get snow continuing heavy into the evening? I'm waiting for the moment when you lollie yourself to 20+ Nah, Its went over the outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!! They might be spot on, especially in the lower valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 could be: It has been beaten to death that the nam was probably incorrect with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 weird to think there is a strong storm headed our way...it's bright blue sapphire skies here...upper teens for lows this morning, first time this season, i think...not looking like much snow for me...i have a friend who lives right on the line between sturbridge and brimfield...i may ask if i can sleep at their house tonight in exchange for shoveling their driveway in the morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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