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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Albany has us 2-4", the newest HRRR has 6" OTG just by 10 pm tonight. This is going to be the kind of storm where forecasts are going to bust all over the place.

Definitely nice and chilly right now though, 26/12.

I'm not buying ALY's forecast map at all. It doesn't even match up with BOX's map on the eastern boundary. I think you'll get a nice 6-10" event in your neck of the woods. For other's here is ALY's forecast map:

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

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Depends on the location for NWS Albany. They upped mine to 10-14, but yeah, looks like they may have trimmed some in the SE corner of their coverage area. That area is still under a WWA, so they can still tweak the numbers a bit if necessary without changing headlines.

So the GFS looks decent last night, the Euro looked a little colder, the GFS looked a little colder this morning and Albany and Boston cut back their accumulations? lol

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The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling.

I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low.

:wub:

Repeat of Feb. 22-23, 2009?

GYX latest map has much of the Maine foothills at 14-18".

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As an addition, it doesn't seem to jive with kbos's map much at all...I would expect some changes this afternoon.

Depends on the location for NWS Albany. They upped mine to 10-14, but yeah, looks like they may have trimmed some in the SE corner of their coverage area. That area is still under a WWA, so they can still tweak the numbers a bit if necessary without changing headlines.

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I'm not buying ALY's forecast map at all. It doesn't even match up with BOX's map on the eastern boundary. I think you'll get a nice 6-10" event in your neck of the woods. For other's here is ALY's forecast map:

StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png

I'm on the cusp of the 2-4 and 4-6, if I get 4" ill scrub their toilets at the office

They have 1-2" almost to cornwall :lol:

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This might be the first time I've ever seen Monson,MA in a WSW while Ray, Will and I are in a WWA for 2-4". I can't get over that fact. I know in the end it doesn't matter, but I hate how there is a WWA for 2-4", P+C shows 4-8". Depending on who the public listens to I could see a range of 2-12" talking to people today.

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I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!!

Forecasts are gonna be blown either direction all over the place with this.

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I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!!

could be:

post-1816-0-38273800-1356536882_thumb.pn

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Over ACK? That should be good for some in SNE and probably is the nail in the coffin for a lot of us up here to stay all snow. How fast is the storm moving and do you think we get snow continuing heavy into the evening?

I'm waiting for the moment when you lollie yourself to 20+

Nah, Its went over the outer cape

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I am still trying to figure out why here in Western Mass, the local mets are so low. All 3 local stations have the Springfield area at 1-3 or 2-4. That seems really low from the GFS or the Euro. People will think the storm is nothing and wake up tomorrow to a 6-10 snow thumping!!

They might be spot on, especially in the lower valley.

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weird to think there is a strong storm headed our way...it's bright blue sapphire skies here...upper teens for lows this morning, first time this season, i think...not looking like much snow for me...i have a friend who lives right on the line between sturbridge and brimfield...i may ask if i can sleep at their house tonight in exchange for shoveling their driveway in the morning...

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