CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If the BOX map verifies, I'll need to take a break. I read through the EURO posts and was pleased to see Will say it showed about 6" in my area. Gimme a break. You'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 13z HRRR shows what Kevin mentioned, the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of snow and ice across northern CT before dryslotting works in. I was trying to find a link to that model, could you post it the link? thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grinch1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 13z HRRR shows what Kevin mentioned, the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of snow and ice across northern CT before dryslotting works in. How about you or jbnyk03 throw something out there for what sounds like a big question mark for inland/elevated swct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 13z HRRR shows what Kevin mentioned, the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of snow and ice across northern CT before dryslotting works in. Be nice if we could rip down 10 inches before sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling. I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low. Yes they look to get HAMMERED! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 CAD.............ftw .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ---1330Z UPDATE--- TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING 5-9F DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECASTED...PRESUMABLY DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE NEW SNOWPACK. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW PRECIPITATION STARTS TONIGHT. Definitely FTW. Was wondering if CAD was going to a factor with this one. Dewpoints are loooooow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 high res rapid refresh: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus15min/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Reading some people on FB going for a hail mary for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM continues to be very cold...it doesn't flip over to pellets here until after 12z tomorrow morning. Its not slow with the onset either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Be nice if we could rip down 10 inches before sleet Maybe to the well west of you... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM continues to be very cold...it doesn't flip over to pellets here until after 12z tomorrow morning. Its not slow with the onset either. When does it pock mark folks south of pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Maybe to the well west of you... Youre really underestimating this one. You're in like for 12+ up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 When does it pock mark folks south of pike? Looks like around or just before 09z...maybe 3am or something. Its rots near the pike for a few hours after. It would still be a lot of snow though for you before the flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Definitely FTW. Was wondering if CAD was going to a factor with this one. Dewpoints are loooooow Td here is about 18F... hope it does not present any sort of issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Be nice if we could rip down 10 inches before sleet :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM continues to be very cold...it doesn't flip over to pellets here until after 12z tomorrow morning. Its not slow with the onset either. 12z is noon right? Or earlier based on the start of 12z suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I bet you see snow before 8PM precip so far has seen brick wall in S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The deformation area gets pretty far north into NNE as he Dryslot rips north. However, a I sai a few times another batch of precip will develop after 12z and pivot NW to continue the firehoae into NNE. There will be big file frontogenesis involved, but it basically becomes a TROWAL or conveyor belt of moisture rising isentropically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like around or just before 09z...maybe 3am or something. Its rots near the pike for a few hours after. It would still be a lot of snow though for you before the flip Nice. There's going to be some very surprised folks on here judging by some of the posts we're seeing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 high res rapid refresh: http://rapidrefresh....hrrrconus15min/ thanks, another question, how about the RAP is it used much? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?page=Image&prevPage=Paramℑ=..%2FGemPakTier%2FMagGemPakImages%2Fruc%2F20121226%2F14%2Fruc_namer_004_precip_p01.gif&fcast=004&model=RUC&area=NAMER&storm=&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p01&cycle=12%2F26%2F2012+14UTC&imageSize=M&currKey=region&scrollx=0&scrolly=0&nextImage=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So the GFS looks decent last night, the Euro looked a little colder, the GFS looked a little colder this morning and Albany and Boston cut back their accumulations? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 How about you or jbnyk03 throw something out there for what sounds like a big question mark for inland/elevated swct?? Grinch I'm going 1-3" for areas just north of 95. I don't think me and you do much better elevation won't help us in this event too much.. Maybe 4" or 5 for us if we get lucky mainly because we are only 10 miles from I84 . I think I-84 area sees 4-6". Northern third of state 6"+. Many will be surprised as no one(public) is expecting this, roads will be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z is noon right? Or earlier based on the start of 12z suite? no - more like subtract 5 or 6 hours depending upon daylight savings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 30/17 dewpoint at bdr continues to drop on a beautiful drain down the Housatonic, NWS has just started adding more snow and sleet in the forecast here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Albany has us 2-4", the newest HRRR has 6" OTG just by 10 pm tonight. This is going to be the kind of storm where forecasts are going to bust all over the place. Definitely nice and chilly right now though, 26/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRRR has 5-6" an hour snow near LL tonight at 3z :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 30/17 dewpoint at bdr continues to drop on a beautiful drain down the Housatonic, NWS has just started adding more snow and sleet in the forecast here. Congrats and enjoy 2-5 down there. Put Graham's bike away lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 How about you or jbnyk03 throw something out there for what sounds like a big question mark for inland/elevated swct?? GFS has us getting .5-.75" of before changeover starts between 3-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z is noon right? Or earlier based on the start of 12z suite? 12z is 7am in winter/8am in Summer...12z=noon in England. The 12z models run off of 12z data so therefore come out after 12z. That's about as much as I know lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 HRRR has 5-6" an hour snow near LL tonight at 3z :lmao: Wow 6" right over my house! From 9-10pm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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