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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling.

I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low.

Yes they look to get HAMMERED!

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CAD.............ftw

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

---1330Z UPDATE---

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING 5-9F DEGREES COLDER

THAN FORECASTED...PRESUMABLY DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING

ABOVE NEW SNOWPACK. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW PRECIPITATION STARTS

TONIGHT.

Definitely FTW. Was wondering if CAD was going to a factor with this one. Dewpoints are loooooow

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The deformation area gets pretty far north into NNE as he Dryslot rips north. However, a I sai a few times another batch of precip will develop after 12z and pivot NW to continue the firehoae into NNE. There will be big file frontogenesis involved, but it basically becomes a TROWAL or conveyor belt of moisture rising isentropically.

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How about you or jbnyk03 throw something out there for what sounds like a big question mark for inland/elevated swct??

Grinch I'm going 1-3" for areas just north of 95. I don't think me and you do much better elevation won't help us in this event too much.. Maybe 4" or 5 for us if we get lucky mainly because we are only 10 miles from I84 . I think I-84 area sees 4-6". Northern third of state 6"+. Many will be surprised as no one(public) is expecting this, roads will be a mess.

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