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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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To be clear I have the midlevel deformation (the death bands of Oct 11, Jan 11, and Dec 10) well to our north. I think that's where the great ratios will be. Like Ryan said, we will get into the cold conveyor snows, but I'm not convinced of great ratios for us. I don't see a reason to go more than 10-12:1 right now.

Thanks for that. I didn't realize there were 2 different types of deformation bands. So the midlevel one is the one that produces great ratios because the midlevels is where the snow growth zone is? The cold conveyer belt is more lower level temps? I'd kill for 12:1 in this storm.

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I managed to get down to 9° F this morning, which is not only my first single digits of the season, it's about 5° F colder than any of the guidance had me. I wonder if this has implications for tonight? I'd say yes.

Same thing here, the forecast overnight low was 19F, but it was actually 15F. Snowcover helped out, as did the lack of wind and clear skies overnight.

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Apologize if I already asked this but where are you? I doubt anywhere in NH has rain until maybe late morning tomorrow except maybe Portsmouth

Standish,ME, at the south end of Sebago Lake. Very surprised by the rain forecast as far inland as I am. I can understand coastal though. Like Jeff said, I doubt rain this far inland.

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Same thing here, the forecast overnight low was 19F, but it was actually 15F. Snowcover helped out, as did the lack of wind and clear skies overnight.

Yes colder by 5 F across the board on lows. Gray mentioned possible "significant implications" on p-type tonight. Lol, I figured it would have been all snow anyway to start

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CAD.............ftw

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

---1330Z UPDATE---

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING 5-9F DEGREES COLDER

THAN FORECASTED...PRESUMABLY DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING

ABOVE NEW SNOWPACK. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW PRECIPITATION STARTS

TONIGHT.

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Went from clear to lowering overcast in an hour, snow start time should be right around 1pm for sw ct

;Very encouraged from reports to the south

You actually had clear skies this morning? Warming into the low-30s along the Conn. shoreline now, but have plenty of room for wet bulbing once precip gets going.

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Went from clear to lowering overcast in an hour, snow start time should be right around 1pm for sw ct

;Very encouraged from reports to the south

Hey moved from NW CT about a yer and a half ago. Now in Roanoke. You guys should definitely fare well. Been right at 32 all morning with heavy bouts of sleet and then sleet/freezing rain mix. Good luck up there when there's a HP in upstate like that it always bodes well and stays colder. What's the temp at now

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I am 21 miles from the ocean, and 30 minutes from Scarborough. You can in no way compare snowfall for Scarborough and my area though, huge gradient because of the ocean.

Well, you're not too far from the ocean is all I am getting at. There is a ripping LLJ that is going to bring in a lot of low level warmth and IU can some having a brief transition to rain. Even the big systems can taint for a bit becasue of this. Honestly I would not sweat it at all. Just don't be surprised by it.

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Start time seems to be before midnight now...which is nice, originally it looked like midnight for you and more like 2/3am for me.

It is nice, because I see myself staying up for most of it if I can stay awake lol. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it was 6 or 7 here...it always moves in quicker than forecasted. TWC has 1-2" changing to rain by midnight...not even the NAM is that warm?

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