mahk_webstah Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 To be clear I have the midlevel deformation (the death bands of Oct 11, Jan 11, and Dec 10) well to our north. I think that's where the great ratios will be. Like Ryan said, we will get into the cold conveyor snows, but I'm not convinced of great ratios for us. I don't see a reason to go more than 10-12:1 right now. Thanks for that. I didn't realize there were 2 different types of deformation bands. So the midlevel one is the one that produces great ratios because the midlevels is where the snow growth zone is? The cold conveyer belt is more lower level temps? I'd kill for 12:1 in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Merrimack NH or MA? NH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I managed to get down to 9° F this morning, which is not only my first single digits of the season, it's about 5° F colder than any of the guidance had me. I wonder if this has implications for tonight? I'd say yes. Same thing here, the forecast overnight low was 19F, but it was actually 15F. Snowcover helped out, as did the lack of wind and clear skies overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Where do you see that? Radar looks pretty sparse and the last obs out of Philly is still cloudy just like across all of NJ. Winter mosaic animation. probably virga if ground reports are still dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Why does GYX have rain in my area up past Jeff, all the way to central NH? I thought profiles supported all snow, with a mix of possible sleet here? Apologize if I already asked this but where are you? I doubt anywhere in NH has rain until maybe late morning tomorrow except maybe Portsmouth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Anyone with access.. What did Euro have for QpF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Probably Berkshires to Monadnocks. CT/RI/SE Mass probably thump it on the front end and then dry slot. How long does the dry slot last? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Anyone with access.. What did Euro have for QpF? You looked close to 1.75" on my SV maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NH they will do better than 6-8... think 10-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NH Grandparents live there...I think they're good for 6-10" like you said. Typically a large difference between what I have here in Atkinson and what they have in a situation like this. Could easily see me getting 5" and them getting 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Apologize if I already asked this but where are you? I doubt anywhere in NH has rain until maybe late morning tomorrow except maybe Portsmouth Standish,ME, at the south end of Sebago Lake. Very surprised by the rain forecast as far inland as I am. I can understand coastal though. Like Jeff said, I doubt rain this far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Anyone with access.. What did Euro have for QpF? Just shy of 1.5 inches for TOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Went from clear to lowering overcast in an hour, snow start time should be right around 1pm for sw ct ;Very encouraged from reports to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Same thing here, the forecast overnight low was 19F, but it was actually 15F. Snowcover helped out, as did the lack of wind and clear skies overnight. Yes colder by 5 F across the board on lows. Gray mentioned possible "significant implications" on p-type tonight. Lol, I figured it would have been all snow anyway to start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Why does GYX have rain in my area up past Jeff, all the way to central NH? I thought profiles supported all snow, with a mix of possible sleet here? Rip and read NAM? Euro and GFS don't have it like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Just shy of 1.5 inches for TOL. Man that's a lot more than I thought. If we can get 75-80% as snow we'd be in biz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't think overnight lows have much if anything to do with storm outcomes. That seems kind of weenie ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Grandparents live there...I think they're good for 6-10" like you said. Typically a large difference between what I have here in Atkinson and what they have in a situation like this. Could easily see me getting 5" and them getting 9". I agree. Can't wait to follow this tonight...going to be a long night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Standish,ME, at the south end of Sebago Lake. Very surprised by the rain forecast as far inland as I am. I can understand coastal though. Like Jeff said, I doubt rain this far inland. Isn't Standish like 15mi from Scarborough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 they will do better than 6-8... think 10-12 Early congrats to anyone who hits a foot in S NH. Hoping for an overperformer w/ minimal taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 CAD.............ftw .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ---1330Z UPDATE--- TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION ARE RUNNING 5-9F DEGREES COLDER THAN FORECASTED...PRESUMABLY DUE TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING ABOVE NEW SNOWPACK. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. THIS MAY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON HOW PRECIPITATION STARTS TONIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I agree. Can't wait to follow this tonight...going to be a long night. Start time seems to be before midnight now...which is nice, originally it looked like midnight for you and more like 2/3am for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Isn't Standish like 15mi from Scarborough? I am 21 miles from the ocean, and 30 minutes from Scarborough. You can in no way compare snowfall for Scarborough and my area though, huge gradient because of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Went from clear to lowering overcast in an hour, snow start time should be right around 1pm for sw ct ;Very encouraged from reports to the south You actually had clear skies this morning? Warming into the low-30s along the Conn. shoreline now, but have plenty of room for wet bulbing once precip gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Went from clear to lowering overcast in an hour, snow start time should be right around 1pm for sw ct ;Very encouraged from reports to the south Hey moved from NW CT about a yer and a half ago. Now in Roanoke. You guys should definitely fare well. Been right at 32 all morning with heavy bouts of sleet and then sleet/freezing rain mix. Good luck up there when there's a HP in upstate like that it always bodes well and stays colder. What's the temp at now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am 21 miles from the ocean, and 30 minutes from Scarborough. You can in no way compare snowfall for Scarborough and my area though, huge gradient because of the ocean. Well, you're not too far from the ocean is all I am getting at. There is a ripping LLJ that is going to bring in a lot of low level warmth and IU can some having a brief transition to rain. Even the big systems can taint for a bit becasue of this. Honestly I would not sweat it at all. Just don't be surprised by it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Start time seems to be before midnight now...which is nice, originally it looked like midnight for you and more like 2/3am for me. It is nice, because I see myself staying up for most of it if I can stay awake lol. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it was 6 or 7 here...it always moves in quicker than forecasted. TWC has 1-2" changing to rain by midnight...not even the NAM is that warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Were there Winter Storm Warnings posted for SNE on March 1st? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It is nice, because I see myself staying up for most of it if I can stay awake lol. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it was 6 or 7 here...it always moves in quicker than forecasted. TWC has 1-2" changing to rain by midnight...not even the NAM is that warm? I bet you see snow before 8PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 13z HRRR shows what Kevin mentioned, the bulk of the precipitation falling in the form of snow and ice across northern CT before dryslotting works in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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