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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Could the NAM be suffering from convective feedback near the Gulf Coast? Nice line of storms down there now. This might cause it to amp up ridging on east coast. Just a thought???

In which case the ridge would ACTUALLY be amped up as a result of latent heat release with the convection ... perhaps even handled better by the NAM (except the Euro is really good here too) ... be careful drawing the line between meteorology and "modelology"

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I think you eek out a nice thump if you're NW of HPN (I assume you are). But, most will have taint in SNE and adjacent NY because of the MSLP position over or just south of LI (model consensus). You'll probably get 2-5" then sleet...and eventually like 36F rain or something. Just a gut feeling.

I'm just SW of HPN but have slightly more elevation....350-400' in my neighborhood/woods. I usually am about equal with them in winter storms, maybe a bit warmer. I was thinking 2-4" then sleet then rain as well.

I think things could go either way on a line from HPN-HVN-IJD...these places have high bust potential in either direction. Really depends on boundary layer winds being northeast versus east, as well as how heavy the precipitation is.

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Jeez look at the drop off... Cruel

I don't think that's going to verify....I don't know why so many people are pessimistic for the Boston area. Besides Logan Airport immediately on the water, I was thinking 4-8" for Boston. Even on the 18z GFS, which is much warmer than the Euro, the 850 line is well south of BOS at 39 hours and already .5" QPF has fallen.

It's still amazing the difference in temps between GFS and Euro. Euro is so much colder, and that could be a crucial difference for marginal areas like mine and Boston.

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I'm just SW of HPN but have slightly more elevation....350-400' in my neighborhood/woods. I usually am about equal with them in winter storms, maybe a bit warmer. I was thinking 2-4" then sleet then rain as well.

I think things could go either way on a line from HPN-HVN-IJD...these places have high bust potential in either direction. Really depends on boundary layer winds being northeast versus east, as well as how heavy the precipitation is.

The city of White Plains is lower, but the airport - KHPN - is a few miles NE and about 400ft.

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ok so why is matt noyes on necn only calling for 6 inches in manchester nh when box has be 10 to 14 and all others have at least 6 to 12? he is a real good met looks like he is favoring the nam model!? what am I missing?

Conservative call, could definitely still verify. However, I'd be happy with 6" over here :)

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to me it looks slightly colder brings 850 line into southern nh for a brief time could see a changover to sleet cutting down on accumulations unless nam is correct then I will get lots of sleet cutting accum. way down

This is gonna be such a close call for us. I like your spot better, good luck!

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I just don't understand how the GFS can have the 850 line 100 miles north of the Euro for the same time frame when the storm is coming tomorrow. Massive difference in thermal profiles leading to a nowcast situation for those of us on the borderline.

Yeah, it is a tough call for those of us that are on the fence right now. I am hoping I am located far enough north in latitude to take advantage of the front-end dump before the inevitable tainting that will occur.. I guess we wait for the 0z runs and see if the GFS caves to the other globals or is on to something.. ALB are calling for 2-6 in the Mid Hudson Valley, which would probably translate to similar amounts for those along I84 in CT. We'll see.

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18z GFS at 42 hours vs the 12z GFS at 48 - the low is definitely somewhat west versus the 12z. Not much of a temp change in NE, but over NY and PA the 0c 8h line is further west and north. It is ever so slightly warmer in northern MA (particularly along the VT border).

It doesn't mean much, but if we're going to look at the 18z runs subjectively..the 18z GFS and NAM are both somewhat warmer.

EDIT: Simple model comparison. I'm not making a forecast, insulting anyones mother, making a standing proclamation or declaring war on another community, region, member, or peoples.

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18z GFS at 42 hours vs the 12z GFS at 48 - the low is definitely somewhat west versus the 12z. Not much of a temp change in NE, but over NY and PA the 0c 8h line is further west and north. It is ever so slightly warmer in northern MA (particularly along the VT border).

It doesn't mean much, but if we're going to look at the 18z runs subjectively..the 18z GFS and NAM are both somewhat warmer.

EDIT: Simple model comparison. I'm not making a forecast, insulting anyones mother, making a standing proclamation or declaring war on another community, region, member, or peoples.

The bigger statement to me is that the south trend seems to be over

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