TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm hoping for a holiday miracle and this comes further south in the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Could the NAM be suffering from convective feedback near the Gulf Coast? Nice line of storms down there now. This might cause it to amp up ridging on east coast. Just a thought??? In which case the ridge would ACTUALLY be amped up as a result of latent heat release with the convection ... perhaps even handled better by the NAM (except the Euro is really good here too) ... be careful drawing the line between meteorology and "modelology" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I think you eek out a nice thump if you're NW of HPN (I assume you are). But, most will have taint in SNE and adjacent NY because of the MSLP position over or just south of LI (model consensus). You'll probably get 2-5" then sleet...and eventually like 36F rain or something. Just a gut feeling. I'm just SW of HPN but have slightly more elevation....350-400' in my neighborhood/woods. I usually am about equal with them in winter storms, maybe a bit warmer. I was thinking 2-4" then sleet then rain as well. I think things could go either way on a line from HPN-HVN-IJD...these places have high bust potential in either direction. Really depends on boundary layer winds being northeast versus east, as well as how heavy the precipitation is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Impressive increase for some areas and slight decrease in others...hell of a gradient on the new BOX map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ok so why is matt noyes on necn only calling for 6 inches in manchester nh when box has be 10 to 14 and all others have at least 6 to 12? he is a real good met looks like he is favoring the nam model!? what am I missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks about the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Jeez look at the drop off... Cruel I don't think that's going to verify....I don't know why so many people are pessimistic for the Boston area. Besides Logan Airport immediately on the water, I was thinking 4-8" for Boston. Even on the 18z GFS, which is much warmer than the Euro, the 850 line is well south of BOS at 39 hours and already .5" QPF has fallen. It's still amazing the difference in temps between GFS and Euro. Euro is so much colder, and that could be a crucial difference for marginal areas like mine and Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS looks about the same? to me it looks slightly colder brings 850 line into southern nh for a brief time could see a changover to sleet cutting down on accumulations unless nam is correct then I will get lots of sleet cutting accum. way down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Huge bust potential from the Monads south, dynamics need to crank quickly or look out. BERKS to Foothills of Maine look safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Impressive increase for some areas and slight decrease in others...hell of a gradient on the new BOX map. Im on the edge of 8-10/6-8, a little wobble either way and I can go from 10" down to 1-2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm just SW of HPN but have slightly more elevation....350-400' in my neighborhood/woods. I usually am about equal with them in winter storms, maybe a bit warmer. I was thinking 2-4" then sleet then rain as well. I think things could go either way on a line from HPN-HVN-IJD...these places have high bust potential in either direction. Really depends on boundary layer winds being northeast versus east, as well as how heavy the precipitation is. The city of White Plains is lower, but the airport - KHPN - is a few miles NE and about 400ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Huge bust potential from the Monads south, dynamics need to crank quickly or look out. BERKS to Foothills of Maine look safe I fear the taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im on the edge of 8-10/6-8, a little wobble either way and I can go from 10" down to 1-2". High stakes forecast. Best thing about this for CP folks is that it distracts us for a while and now the 12/30 potential storm is creeping inside 100 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Im on the edge of 8-10/6-8, a little wobble either way and I can go from 10" down to 1-2". Yup, exact same here, 2-12" official forecast here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I fear the taint Id feel pretty comfortable where you are for a good front end dump, whats a little taint on top of 10-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Warning for 10-14'' seems a little high but I'll run with it. Merry Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS seemed to pull back a little northwest. One notable trend that I'm seeing in both the GFS and Euro today is a tendency to develop the banded mode of the storm quicker and thus more prolonged heavy snow on the northwest side of the departing low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I just don't understand how the GFS can have the 850 line 100 miles north of the Euro for the same time frame when the storm is coming tomorrow. Massive difference in thermal profiles leading to a nowcast situation for those of us on the borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ok so why is matt noyes on necn only calling for 6 inches in manchester nh when box has be 10 to 14 and all others have at least 6 to 12? he is a real good met looks like he is favoring the nam model!? what am I missing? Conservative call, could definitely still verify. However, I'd be happy with 6" over here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teebrdsfan Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 to me it looks slightly colder brings 850 line into southern nh for a brief time could see a changover to sleet cutting down on accumulations unless nam is correct then I will get lots of sleet cutting accum. way down This is gonna be such a close call for us. I like your spot better, good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS has massive convection in the warm sector, somebody is going to be dryslutted big time if that depiction happens. I think that the Euro is much more realistic in its precip distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTV map is weenie fodder....Warning up for 10-15" now. It is a very Merry Christmas in the North Country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I just don't understand how the GFS can have the 850 line 100 miles north of the Euro for the same time frame when the storm is coming tomorrow. Massive difference in thermal profiles leading to a nowcast situation for those of us on the borderline. Yeah, it is a tough call for those of us that are on the fence right now. I am hoping I am located far enough north in latitude to take advantage of the front-end dump before the inevitable tainting that will occur.. I guess we wait for the 0z runs and see if the GFS caves to the other globals or is on to something.. ALB are calling for 2-6 in the Mid Hudson Valley, which would probably translate to similar amounts for those along I84 in CT. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 BTV map is weenie fodder....Warning up for 10-15" now. It is a very Merry Christmas in the North Country. look at the Euro Ens on Allans site, at 850 winds. The inflow with the East upslope is depicted very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS at 42 hours vs the 12z GFS at 48 - the low is definitely somewhat west versus the 12z. Not much of a temp change in NE, but over NY and PA the 0c 8h line is further west and north. It is ever so slightly warmer in northern MA (particularly along the VT border). It doesn't mean much, but if we're going to look at the 18z runs subjectively..the 18z GFS and NAM are both somewhat warmer. EDIT: Simple model comparison. I'm not making a forecast, insulting anyones mother, making a standing proclamation or declaring war on another community, region, member, or peoples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 18z GFS at 42 hours vs the 12z GFS at 48 - the low is definitely somewhat west versus the 12z. Not much of a temp change in NE, but over NY and PA the 0c 8h line is further west and north. It is ever so slightly warmer in northern MA (particularly along the VT border). It doesn't mean much, but if we're going to look at the 18z runs subjectively..the 18z GFS and NAM are both somewhat warmer. EDIT: Simple model comparison. I'm not making a forecast, insulting anyones mother, making a standing proclamation or declaring war on another community, region, member, or peoples. The bigger statement to me is that the south trend seems to be over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamrivers Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 EDIT: Simple model comparison. I'm not making a forecast, insulting anyones mother, making a standing proclamation or declaring war on another community, region, member, or peoples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The bigger statement to me is that the south trend seems to be over until 0 Z FYP because 30 hrs is a lifetime in model time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DT has 1-3" to MA/NH border...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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