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December 27/28 Storm Part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

Where do you think that deform and cold conveyer sets up? that is my hope for some higher ratio snow at some point during the system. I guess there should be a deform band way up near the border, but will there also be one in CNE or lower NNE?

Probably Berkshires to Monadnocks.

CT/RI/SE Mass probably thump it on the front end and then dry slot.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

Posted
Posted

Wow...I'd love to read it when you're done.

Ya no problem. I would like to look at a couple cases that had well defined coastal fronts that aided in snow totals for a defined area. And then try to determine through modelling if it is possible to better nail down the location of the coastal front leading up to the event.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

Ya no problem. I would like to look at a couple cases that had well defined coastal fronts that aided in snow totals for a defined area. And then try to determine through modelling if it is possible to better nail down the location of the coastal front leading up to the event.

Dec 21, 2008 would be a great case study....

Dec 16, 2007 was also very well defined....

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Ryan

Ryan

Posted
Posted

If I only get 3", while Monson, MA gets warning criteria, I will be absolutely shocked....BOX brought me down from 8-10" to about 4" overnight when the Euro held course. IDK, I'm sticking to my 5-9" here.

They had LWM at 6-8" in the previous map yesterday... and I wake up to see it's been reduced to 1-2"! I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle, probably 3-5" there realistically?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Where do you think that deform and cold conveyer sets up? that is my hope for some higher ratio snow at some point during the system. I guess there should be a deform band way up near the border, but will there also be one in CNE or lower NNE?

To be clear I have the midlevel deformation (the death bands of Oct 11, Jan 11, and Dec 10) well to our north. I think that's where the great ratios will be. Like Ryan said, we will get into the cold conveyor snows, but I'm not convinced of great ratios for us. I don't see a reason to go more than 10-12:1 right now.
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mattb65

mattb65

Posted
Posted

BDR 5"

HVN4"

HPN6"

HFD7.5"

KCRISM9.5"

KTOLL9.0"

KGINX7.5"

PVD6.0"

BOS7.0"

KSCOOT7.5"

KSQUIRREL8.0"

KGAY10"

KHUNCH11"

KDARTH12"

KPIT14"

KHIPPIE17"

KC~WEAT3.5"

Bold calls Joe!! I had to do a double take to make sure it wasn't Sultan.

Have to say you must be chanelling your inner Ginx with this forecast.

I endorse it and think you'll be close but I'm thinking a bit less around Boston, more in the 2-4" range but hope you're right for all of us snow starved CP folks.

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weatherMA

weatherMA

Posted
Posted

They had LWM at 6-8" in the previous map yesterday... and I wake up to see it's been reduced to 1-2"! I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle, probably 3-5" there realistically?

Yeah maybe...I honestly think 6-8" was the better call, but what do I know. My cousins are asking me what to expect in Merrimack...I want to say they are far enough from the coast for 6-10", but they could get a lot less than that...

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

To be clear I have the midlevel deformation (the death bands of Oct 11, Jan 11, and Dec 10) well to our north. I think that's where the great ratios will be. Like Ryan said, we will get into the cold conveyor snows, but I'm not convinced of great ratios for us. I don't see a reason to go more than 10-12:1 right now.

The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling.

I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low.

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wxmanmitch

wxmanmitch

Posted
Posted

I managed to get down to 9° F this morning, which is not only my first single digits of the season, it's about 5° F colder than any of the guidance had me. I wonder if this has implications for tonight? I'd say yes.

It will be close here in terms of getting taint as a lot of the guidance gets the midlevel freezing line close to my location, but 06Z GFS vertical profiles looks like it keeps me snow for the duration of the event. I don't have Euro vertical profiles, but 850 mb freezing line stops a bit short of my location. The NAM continues to puke all over this storm and brings a lot of taint even in here.

As I'm normally a cautious forecaster, I went conservative in my post last night. I still don't think Logan will get much more than an inch (maybe 2, if lucky), but the gradient will be significant in that area with areas outside of 128 doing much better. Anyhow, here are my updated numbers for some SNE climo sites:

BOS: 1-2", ORH: 7-9", PVD: 2-4", BDL: 5-7", CEF: 6-8", PSF: 10-12".

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Sugarloaf1989

Sugarloaf1989

Posted
Posted

Do you read the board mets or just think BOX forecasts are correct?

If you re-read my statement I said according to the NWS, it's not my opinion or what I would like to happen. It is exactly what the p/c forecast calls for here. I think they are correct IMO, maybe not with temperature high's, but likely with rainfall.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Just for ground verification - 6Z NAM showed a changeover prior to precip arriving and no snow at all for DC, BWI and suburbs, while the GFS, GGEM and Euro showed a start as pingers flipping dynamically to snow. If you go read the obs thread in the mid atlantic thread you'll see the global models were all right. Lots of obs of folks starting as IP or RN flipping pretty quickly to heavy accumulating snow.

http://www.americanw...n/page__st__735

When NCEP makes the point that their models are off it's one thing...by 2-4C at 850mb is huge. But it's also good to see ground verification of the bad forecasts. I'm just astounded it's not corrected even in the 12z NAM, very hard to believe, and embarrassing that they couldn't get it adjusted/right this close in. I agree with Ryan on the cold look to the GFS...what if it's still 2 or 3 C too warm?
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Ryan

Ryan

Posted
Posted

Yeah maybe...I honestly think 6-8" was the better call, but what do I know. My cousins are asking me what to expect in Merrimack...I want to say they are far enough from the coast for 6-10", but they could get a lot less than that...

Merrimack NH or MA?

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

The mid level low track looks pretty good for you though. You may be in the perfect spot or at least near it. It seems like the models are pegging the best deformation/frontogenesis a bit north of where you'd typically expect it based on those mid level low tracks... not sure why but it has been consistent in modeling.

I really like the foothills of Maine for this. Someone could probably squeeze out 2 feet up there as a jackpot. Beautiful upslope, inflow off the ocean, and a strengthening frontogenetic circulation both in the low levels from the coastal front and mid levels from mid level low.

If i can stay all snow here i can probably pull 18" while just to my NW RUM and IZG could see 24"

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