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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I'm kind of weary of models now....wil take a quick look. But it's almost real time mode. Lately I have been trying to enjoy the snowstorms the old fashioned way once they are underway and not sitting behind a monitor the whole time doing analysis. LOL

LOL--Pete can lend him one, I'm sure.

I think it's close for NW areas to stick with snow. I'm honpeing the ds may pass east of here--I think that may be the case.

I think Eric, Dendrite and Jeff are going to be in full weenie form as the 12z suite unfolds.

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cant' wait to see where the CF sets up on this one. should be very fierce in SE NH into N mass

also the totals near wildcat mtn should be insane if the local meso models have a good handle on this with 2.25 qpf on the mountain.

I think the cf is going to be just nw of me, unfortunately....

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cant' wait to see where the CF sets up on this one. should be very fierce in SE NH into N mass

also the totals near wildcat mtn should be insane if the local meso models have a good handle on this with 2.25 qpf on the mountain.

Seems like SE NH is either gonna score big or turn to glop, causing an 8" or so difference in totals in a small area

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I'm kind of weary of models now....wil take a quick look. But it's almost real time mode. Lately I have been trying to enjoy the snowstorms the old fashioned way once they are underway and not sitting behind a monitor the whole time doing analysis. LOL

Agree on this--I was htinking the same thing that once the snow starts, I'm going to sit back and enjoy. I'll post my measurements as I take them, but no sense staring at the monitor. Unless of ocurse its snowing at night........er--wait a minute.

Congratulations on using "weary" correctly. The use of 'weary', 'wary', 'leary', and 'leery' on this board is a hoot. The misuse of 'up-stream' vs. 'downstream' is also comical.

Of course, it's excusable if people have had too many beets.

Pete should get a foot. Maybe 14"

Sitting here in the 10-14" zone on the Box map. If the dryslot can pass east of here, I think that's realistic--and if the taint issue is minor, of course.

19/14

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Just for ground verification - 6Z NAM showed a changeover prior to precip arriving and no snow at all for DC, BWI and suburbs, while the GFS, GGEM and Euro showed a start as pingers flipping dynamically to snow. If you go read the obs thread in the mid atlantic thread you'll see the global models were all right. Lots of obs of folks starting as IP or RN flipping pretty quickly to heavy accumulating snow.

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Agree on this--I was htinking the same thing that once the snow starts, I'm going to sit back and enjoy. I'll post my measurements as I take them, but no sense staring at the monitor. Unless of ocurse its snowing at night........er--wait a minute.

Congratulations on using "weary" correctly. The use of 'weary', 'wary', 'leary', and 'leery' on this board is a hoot. The misuse of 'up-stream' vs. 'downstream' is also comical.

Of course, it's excusable if people have had too many beets.

Sitting here in the 10-14" zone on the Box map. If the dryslot can pass east of here, I think that's realistic--and if the taint issue is minor, of course.

19/14

Congrats Mike, But if you have power, You will be staring at the monitor, Good try though........... :snowing:

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I'm really impressed with how cold the GFS is. That's going to yield a nice surprise for many people. Even Hartford could put down 6 inches!

I sort of think that for places south of the Pike this is going to sort of act like a SWFE. Thump of snow maybe tainted by pingers for a time and then dry slot. The mid level low track is probably too far north to put up fun numbers south and east of ORH... but northwest of there you can envision a nice deformation zone/cold conveyor belt setting up.

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I'm really impressed with how cold the GFS is. That's going to yield a nice surprise for many people. Even Hartford could put down 6 inches!

I sort of think that for places south of the Pike this is going to sort of act like a SWFE. Thump of snow maybe tainted by pingers for a time and then dry slot. The mid level low track is probably too far north to put up fun numbers south and east of ORH... but northwest of there you can envision a nice deformation zone/cold conveyor belt setting up.

Where do you think that deform and cold conveyer sets up? that is my hope for some higher ratio snow at some point during the system. I guess there should be a deform band way up near the border, but will there also be one in CNE or lower NNE?

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I'm on the free trial this week (timed it well). Aside from radar, do you find it worthwhile? i was just looking around a bit and was underwhelmed At least at a REALLY quick first glance.

The radar is really good i think, There is no lag or very little to when the precip starts to fall over your area, I called it within 5 mins to when it was going to start snowing yesterday..

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