TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 When in doubt weenies stick together even if it means they crash and burn together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This is why we always toss @BigJoeBastardi: 06z GFS cools from previous run! HPC discussion points out errors in US models on temps.. Good job in catching it, but most didnt see Agree. I usually toss JB too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BOX maps looks a litle more reasonable back here. I kind of agree with Ray that he isn't getting 2" though. Euro had it cold enough for snow there at the sfc for hours tomorrow night. Yes, I should clarify that "bogus" only refers to my area....looks good back your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think my final call will be 4-8". Can't go 6-10" because it just doesn't feel right....especially with the NAM so warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think my final call will be 4-8". Can't go 6-10" because it just doesn't feel right....especially with the NAM so warm. You and I look to get similar amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I am going with 8-12 for my area. Was initially in agreement with the WSW of 10 to 14... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 What is the start time for all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You and I look to get similar amounts I think I'll do better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I am going with 8-12 for my area. Was initially in agreement with the WSW of 10 to 14... Its tough to crack 12" when you deal with the dryslot and eventually ptype issues...but it should be hellecious the first 6 hours or so. That's when most of us will really rack it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think I'll do better. We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We may never get truly dry slotted here, but it's during that period that it gets close where some taint could occur. Regardless the click/point forecast has 11 to 17 inches now. Upslope could be interesting here. The dryslot should race up fairly quickly which will at least help limit any crap when it flips in SNE, especially areas like Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Overall JB did nail this evolution pretty well from a week out. I suppose people along I-95 still won't be happy with him, but he kept hammering the idea of the transfer to the coastal under the block even as most models had the pure cutter again for awhile. Agree. I usually toss JB too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Overall JB did nail this evolution pretty well from a week out. I suppose people along I-95 still won't be happy with him, but he kept hammering the idea of the transfer to the coastal under the block even as most models had the pure cutter again for awhile. DT spit the bit on this...was adamant that it was an I 95 snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 BOX maps looks a litle more reasonable back here. I kind of agree with Ray that he isn't getting 2" though. Euro had it cold enough for snow there at the sfc for hours tomorrow night. Don't you think we should be under a warning? I mean, Monson, MA is? But not us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run? Just looking at the ground truth in the mid atlantic argues that the NAM is in error even from 6 hours out. I have tossed it completely for this event, and going 100% with the GGEM, GFS, Euro blend. I know that sounds kinda like CT Blizz, but IMO it's the prudent thing to do. I don't really care if forkyfork says it's been consistent, I'd say it's just been consistently wrong with temps in the mid levels and shouldn't be used in a forecast for this system. We'll see if it continues to be too warm as the storm heads up the coast. I'd be shocked if it doesn't verify too warm, but that's just my weenie opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I should at least be under a watch....absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I should at least be under a watch....absurd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I should at least be under a watch....absurd. You are under a watch....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You are under a watch....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If the BOX map verifies, I'll need to take a break. I read through the EURO posts and was pleased to see Will say it showed about 6" in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 DT spit the bit on this...was adamant that it was an I 95 snowstorm. "Spit the bit"? What does that mean? What's the time frame on this storm entering a majority of the area? Am I still mostly wet - too close to coast and south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I should at least be under a watch....absurd. If I only get 3", while Monson, MA gets warning criteria, I will be absolutely shocked....BOX brought me down from 8-10" to about 4" overnight when the Euro held course. IDK, I'm sticking to my 5-9" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Blizz better show us a laser leveled ruler measurement photo if we are to think he beats Ray. Ray, I hope you get the higher end of your thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEK_VT_Upslope_Event Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I forecast 17" at my house when all is said and done sometime on Friday. I'd not be shocked to hit 20" if upslope machine really turns on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 "Spit the bit"? What does that mean? What's the time frame on this storm entering a majority of the area? Am I still mostly wet - too close to coast and south? From horse.racing... choked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 JB just mentioned this HPC Analysis.... It seems like they have thrown out the NAM. STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST ====================================== PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850 HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE. DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Don't you think we should be under a warning? I mean, Monson, MA is? But not us? Yeah I prob wouldnt put E Hamden in a warning but leave out S ORH county...but we're basically in a warning for all intents and purposes. I'm literally 200 yards from a warning (Holden, MA line)...the boundaries are just set so that we're technically not in the warning, but using best judgement on where the snowfall gradient is and given we're basically on the line between S ORH and N ORH county, you can gather what the general premise is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Blizz better show us a laser leveled ruler measurement photo if we are to think he beats Ray. Ray, I hope you get the higher end of your thoughts LOL--Pete can lend him one, I'm sure. I think it's close for NW areas to stick with snow. I'm honpeing the ds may pass east of here--I think that may be the case. I think Eric, Dendrite and Jeff are going to be in full weenie form as the 12z suite unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah I prob wouldnt put E Hamden in a warning but leave out S ORH county...but we're basically in a warning for all intents and purposes. I'm literally 200 yards from a warning (Holden, MA line)...the boundaries are just set so that we're technically not in the warning, but using best judgement on where the snowfall gradient is and given we're basically on the line between S ORH and N ORH county, you can gather what the general premise is. LOL, yeah I know. It's just the fact that I click on Shrewsbury, MA and it tells me I'm getting 2-4"....they could've at least made the advisory for 3-6" lol. But yeah, after that Euro run I'm def sticking with 5-9" call for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 There's something wrong with the NAM right now...its performing so poorly in this storm. I just checked the 12z run just starting to come out and its already woefully too slow with the precip in the mid-atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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