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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I think I am going with 8-12 for my area. Was initially in agreement with the WSW of 10 to 14...

Its tough to crack 12" when you deal with the dryslot and eventually ptype issues...but it should be hellecious the first 6 hours or so. That's when most of us will really rack it up.

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We may never get truly dry slotted here, but it's during that period that it gets close where some taint could occur. Regardless the click/point forecast has 11 to 17 inches now. :) Upslope could be interesting here.

The dryslot should race up fairly quickly which will at least help limit any crap when it flips in SNE, especially areas like Kevin.

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Overall JB did nail this evolution pretty well from a week out. I suppose people along I-95 still won't be happy with him, but he kept hammering the idea of the transfer to the coastal under the block even as most models had the pure cutter again for awhile.

DT spit the bit on this...was adamant that it was an I 95 snowstorm.

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6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run?

Just looking at the ground truth in the mid atlantic argues that the NAM is in error even from 6 hours out. I have tossed it completely for this event, and going 100% with the GGEM, GFS, Euro blend. I know that sounds kinda like CT Blizz, but IMO it's the prudent thing to do.

I don't really care if forkyfork says it's been consistent, I'd say it's just been consistently wrong with temps in the mid levels and shouldn't be used in a forecast for this system. We'll see if it continues to be too warm as the storm heads up the coast. I'd be shocked if it doesn't verify too warm, but that's just my weenie opinion.

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JB just mentioned this HPC Analysis.... It seems like they have thrown out the NAM.

STORM MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST

======================================

PREFERENCE: NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850

HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO

VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE

POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER

PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON. SEE WINTER WEATHER

GRAPHICS/PRODUCTS FROM HPC AND LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES FOR MORE ON

SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EXPECTATIONS WITH THIS CYCLONE.

DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD, THE 00Z NAM BECOMES A SLOWER THAN

THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE

NORTHEAST FROM LATE THURSDAY ONWARD, AND LIES NEAR THE SOUTHWEST

CORNER OF THE 12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WITH ITS ASSOCIATED

SURFACE LOW POSITION FRIDAY MORNING. TREND-WISE, THE GUIDANCE HAS

STRENGTHENED THIS SYSTEM OVER THEIR PAST DAY OF RUNS, BUT THE NAM

HAS STOPPED TRENDING QUICKER/NORTHEAST. WITH THE 21Z SREF/00Z

GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS SUPPORTING THE QUICKER NON-NAM

CONSENSUS, THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A NON-NAM COMPROMISE HERE WITH

AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING ITS PROGRESSIVE NATURE.

:weenie:

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Don't you think we should be under a warning? I mean, Monson, MA is? But not us?

Yeah I prob wouldnt put E Hamden in a warning but leave out S ORH county...but we're basically in a warning for all intents and purposes. I'm literally 200 yards from a warning (Holden, MA line)...the boundaries are just set so that we're technically not in the warning, but using best judgement on where the snowfall gradient is and given we're basically on the line between S ORH and N ORH county, you can gather what the general premise is.

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Blizz better show us a laser leveled ruler measurement photo if we are to think he beats Ray.

Ray, I hope you get the higher end of your thoughts

LOL--Pete can lend him one, I'm sure.

I think it's close for NW areas to stick with snow. I'm honpeing the ds may pass east of here--I think that may be the case.

I think Eric, Dendrite and Jeff are going to be in full weenie form as the 12z suite unfolds.

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Yeah I prob wouldnt put E Hamden in a warning but leave out S ORH county...but we're basically in a warning for all intents and purposes. I'm literally 200 yards from a warning (Holden, MA line)...the boundaries are just set so that we're technically not in the warning, but using best judgement on where the snowfall gradient is and given we're basically on the line between S ORH and N ORH county, you can gather what the general premise is.

LOL, yeah I know. It's just the fact that I click on Shrewsbury, MA and it tells me I'm getting 2-4"....they could've at least made the advisory for 3-6" lol.

But yeah, after that Euro run I'm def sticking with 5-9" call for here.

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