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December 27/28 Storm Part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32.

This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast

Well the lower values are at least reasonable for you. Not sure of 8 though.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

Looks like 12-18 with higher lollies. You think it will be pasty? mid twenties tonight, and I bet we are lower than guidance and dont' get out of the 20s tomorrow. Some areas are borderline blizzard conditions tomorrow with sustained 30-40 near the coast with gusts to 55. Somwhere between CON and the coast might actually verify blizzard if they don't changeover, or before they change over. We won't but we look to gust to 40 so, which will create quite the scene outside. The models have not wavered on the qpf for at least 3 days, which is remarkable. Who will get the 24" lollie? Where will the best deformation set up on Thursday afternoon bring a few hours of heavy windblown powdery snow? I don't think I get the lollie but Jeff might. Other questions include who gets the dryslot and is there a subsidence (sp?) zone that screws some of us?

Brian I hope you feel well enough to get outside and enjoy it. Going to go for a long walk in the woods tomorrow.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

Posted
Posted

All snow here on the 00z EC, EC ens, 06z GFS and NAM. SREF plumes give a mean of 13-14" at LCI and if you take out the ARW members and the 2 min/max extremes the range of 10-17". It could be a paste job tomorrow morning.

Nice. Feel free to send some taint free qpf to your friendly southern neighbors.

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jlauderdal

jlauderdal

Posted
Posted

Gratuitous use of the word? I don't see that likely--nor is there any reference in their AFD about such things.

I was thinking the same thing when I saw that. Always an adventure with the media reporting. Anyway, coming to Stowe on Saturday so I am very encouraged by the forecast there. Too bad I am missing this one and the 30th system appears to be South and East. No complaining though..two weeks it was looking slushy at best.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

Looks like 12-18 with higher lollies. You think it will be pasty? mid twenties tonight, and I bet we are lower than guidance and dont' get out of the 20s tomorrow. Some areas are borderline blizzard conditions tomorrow with sustained 30-40 near the coast with gusts to 55. Somwhere between CON and the coast might actually verify blizzard if they don't changeover, or before they change over. We won't but we look to gust to 40 so, which will create quite the scene outside. The models have not wavered on the qpf for at least 3 days, which is remarkable. Who will get the 24" lollie? Where will the best deformation set up on Thursday afternoon bring a few hours of heavy windblown powdery snow? I don't think I get the lollie but Jeff might. Other questions include who gets the dryslot and is there a subsidence (sp?) zone that screws some of us?

Brian I hope you feel well enough to get outside and enjoy it. Going to go for a long walk in the woods tomorrow.

I don't know about 24", but I do feel pretty good about a 20 spot somewhere around the foothills .. Bridgton or Paris maybe.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I don't know about 24", but I do feel pretty good about a 20 spot somewhere around the foothills .. Bridgton or Paris maybe.

How many runs have had 2+qpf? what does a 5sd Easterly jet translate to? Will ratios be 8 or 10 - 1 over all areas during the height of the storm, especially in the deform band? When the NWS is going with a large area of 14-18 36 hours before a storm, there should be lollies at or above 2 feet. Heck, there's an 18-22 zone in the Monads of SNH.

It is been a long time since a big storm so there is some understandable conservativeness.

Too bad you have to work tomorrow eh? GREAT day for a hike.

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MaineJayhawk

MaineJayhawk

Posted
Posted

How many runs have had 2+qpf? what does a 5sd Easterly jet translate to? Will ratios be 8 or 10 - 1 over all areas during the height of the storm, especially in the deform band? When the NWS is going with a large area of 14-18 36 hours before a storm, there should be lollies at or above 2 feet. Heck, there's an 18-22 zone in the Monads of SNH.

It is been a long time since a big storm so there is some understandable conservativeness.

Too bad you have to work tomorrow eh? GREAT day for a hike.

I just don't want dendrite calling me a weenie, so I can't chuck 24+ :hurrbear:

And I don't think there's any chance in hell I'd go for a hike in the Whites during a major winter storm! lol I'll be there on Saturday though.

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#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted

I just don't want dendrite calling me a weenie, so I can't chuck 24+ :hurrbear:

And I don't think there's any chance in hell I'd go for a hike in the Whites during a major winter storm! lol I'll be there on Saturday though.

well, you're gonna get crushed with tons of snow and i'm getting rain...you suck ;)

whats you next hike?

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I just don't want dendrite calling me a weenie, so I can't chuck 24+ :hurrbear:

And I don't think there's any chance in hell I'd go for a hike in the Whites during a major winter storm! lol I'll be there on Saturday though.

I am a proud weenie. I am weeneeing out but I feel like I have been making a strong case backed by data for 3 days. My hike will be in the woods at 700-850ft. Hiking in a heavy snow in the woods is a great experience....I'll take pics.

I wonder what the ratios will be? Chris was talking about good ratios a couple days ago. I think to calculate ratios you have to know the temps in the snow growth zone....I have no idea how to figure that out.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

How many runs have had 2+qpf? what does a 5sd Easterly jet translate to? Will ratios be 8 or 10 - 1 over all areas during the height of the storm, especially in the deform band? When the NWS is going with a large area of 14-18 36 hours before a storm, there should be lollies at or above 2 feet. Heck, there's an 18-22 zone in the Monads of SNH.

It is been a long time since a big storm so there is some understandable conservativeness.

Too bad you have to work tomorrow eh? GREAT day for a hike.

If it makes you feel better mark, I went final 12-16" here with lolis to 18"............ :snowing:

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teebrdsfan

teebrdsfan

Posted
Posted

I am a proud weenie. I am weeneeing out but I feel like I have been making a strong case backed by data for 3 days. My hike will be in the woods at 700-850ft. Hiking in a heavy snow in the woods is a great experience....I'll take pics.

I wonder what the ratios will be? Chris was talking about good ratios a couple days ago. I think to calculate ratios you have to know the temps in the snow growth zone....I have no idea how to figure that out.

Looks like forecasts are more bullish on snow totals for interior S NH this morning. Anywhere away from the immediate coast FTW :)

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Looks like 12-18 with higher lollies. You think it will be pasty? mid twenties tonight, and I bet we are lower than guidance and dont' get out of the 20s tomorrow. Some areas are borderline blizzard conditions tomorrow with sustained 30-40 near the coast with gusts to 55. Somwhere between CON and the coast might actually verify blizzard if they don't changeover, or before they change over. We won't but we look to gust to 40 so, which will create quite the scene outside. The models have not wavered on the qpf for at least 3 days, which is remarkable. Who will get the 24" lollie? Where will the best deformation set up on Thursday afternoon bring a few hours of heavy windblown powdery snow? I don't think I get the lollie but Jeff might. Other questions include who gets the dryslot and is there a subsidence (sp?) zone that screws some of us?

Brian I hope you feel well enough to get outside and enjoy it. Going to go for a long walk in the woods tomorrow.

I think the best deformation will be near or north of PF. We will be lined up in the firehose. I'm not expecting 24" lollies. The non-mountain NH jackpot will probably be somewhere around Ossipee up toward Conway. I think we creep the temps up tomorrow into the 30-32F range as the ENE wind begins cranking. 10:1 sounds like a safe plan to me. With the amount of QPF that would produce a huge base for awhile.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I think the best deformation will be near or north of PF. We will be lined up in the firehose. I'm not expecting 24" lollies. The non-mountain NH jackpot will probably be somewhere around Ossipee up toward Conway. I think we creep the temps up tomorrow into the 30-32F range as the ENE wind begins cranking. 10:1 sounds like a safe plan to me. With the amount of QPF that would produce a huge base for awhile.

destructed Dendrites?

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

I think the best deformation will be near or north of PF. We will be lined up in the firehose. I'm not expecting 24" lollies. The non-mountain NH jackpot will probably be somewhere around Ossipee up toward Conway. I think we creep the temps up tomorrow into the 30-32F range as the ENE wind begins cranking. 10:1 sounds like a safe plan to me. With the amount of QPF that would produce a huge base for awhile.

I had figured 9-10:1 as well for here, Its will be a paste bomb no matter what, Most models have this area from 1.50"-2.00" qpf

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

I think the best deformation will be near or north of PF. We will be lined up in the firehose. I'm not expecting 24" lollies. The non-mountain NH jackpot will probably be somewhere around Ossipee up toward Conway. I think we creep the temps up tomorrow into the 30-32F range as the ENE wind begins cranking. 10:1 sounds like a safe plan to me. With the amount of QPF that would produce a huge base for awhile.

The voice of informed reason....

Do we not get a transition to powdery snow and deform band late in the storm? Chris's optimism about ratios perhaps based on earlier runs with a different temp profile.

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