CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm actually more worried about warm air changing us over before the DS gets here, but it should be interesting to watch this play out. Many times the DS can herald the change. I think you'll be good so long as your rates are really coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Many times the DS can herald the change. I think you'll be good so long as your rates are really coming down. 6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM still is kind of warm. Odd that it is so mild. SREFs argue 3-6" or so for nrn CT it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM still is kind of warm. Odd that it is so mild. SREFs argue 3-6" or so for nrn CT it seems. Seems like a world of difference (especially here) between NAM and most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run? I mean you can't always throw out something, but it is consistent. Tough to beat the other combos of guidance right now. It's important not to fall in love with the coldest set of guidance, but the euro at least IMHO, does make sense. I still would air on the side of caution a bit for your area...if the 06z GFS looks like the euro, then we probably know who to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I mean you can't always throw out something, but it is consistent. Tough to beat the other combos of guidance right now. It's important not to fall in love with the coldest set of guidance, but the euro at least IMHO, does make sense. I still would air on the side of caution a bit for your area...if the 06z GFS looks like the euro, then we probably know who to believe. Pretty crazy difference this close to the event. Glad I don't have to go on TV and air a forecast at 4:30am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It gets the 850 0C line to within 5 or 10 miles of me in ENY. If that's the case I probably taint for awhile during the morning tomorrow. Forecasts is for all snow now, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some PL. So often those sneaky pockets of warmth are underforecast even. 6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 6zgfs should put some smiles on many faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 A bit surprised by this for my area...... WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA- EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE... BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST... NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER 513 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS... INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * TIMING...STARTING TONIGHT AROUND 7 PM. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * IMPACTS...ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS TODAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIPPERY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR UNTREATED SURFACES. IN AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW...VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE EXPECTED. * WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 loving the new box snowfall map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it did on mine sweet 6zgfs should put some smiles on many faces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 wtf is the lady on 22 news talking about worse case 2 to 4 for here!! im guessing shes looking at the nam and not the gfs or euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wildcard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 wtf is the lady on 22 news talking about worse case 2 to 4 for here!! im guessing shes looking at the nam and not the gfs or euro Baylor? She was just on Twitter saying the same stuff. She absolutely sucks at responding to questions from people she doesn't know, but had a brief convo with Eric Fisher from TWC. She even thinks the Berkshire and Worcester hills TOP out at 4-8" and maxes Albany and NNE out to 12". Talk about conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 yeah I dont get it Baylor? She was just on Twitter saying the same stuff. She absolutely sucks at responding to questions from people she doesn't know, but had a brief convo with Eric Fisher from TWC. She even thinks the Berkshire and Worcester hills TOP out at 4-8" and maxes Albany and NNE out to 12". Talk about conservative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Beauty!! I won't be surprised to see northern CT verifyhing a notch higher than that shows. Let's all keep the taint at bay! I love the little SW NH Weenie patch--Monadnock/Fitzwilliam area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GYX bringing the love SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WILL GRADUALLY OVER-SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. WILL BE CONTINUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE WHERE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. WILL BE CONTINUING WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR COASTAL ZONES AS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF CHANGE-OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE THEN. SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN INTERIOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING WINDS ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. EXPECT A CHANGE-OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN IN COASTAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT STILL MAY REACH WARNING CRITERIA BEFORE THAT CHANGE TAKES PLACE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS CHANGE BEFORE COMMITING TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. APPEARS STORM TOTALS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. -- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hot off the press ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 High wind warnings flying here, gusts to 60, 3-5 ft of water on top of astro tides. i like 1-3 here before rain and rising temps tonight so a little bit of everything should be an awesome storm and looking forward to it. Enjoy the snow up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it really wouldnt surprise me to see the berkshires go to a blizzard warning later winds should be cranking there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Seems like everyone is going with the Nam...Did the GFS or Euro trend warmer over night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 it really wouldnt surprise me to see the berkshires go to a blizzard warning later winds should be cranking there What's the criteria for that? The forecast is for 20-30 with gusts to 45mph for tonight (less tmorrow). I don't think those sustained winds would merit one??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is definitely a nice hit for the interior, even down to Kevin. His area is really a tough call. Euro is prob 5-8" for Kevin. I was thinking 3-5" for him originally, but euro def argues for more. I think it's also a matter of how quickly the arc of precip lifts north and the dryslot approaches...not just mid level temps. Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32. This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm actually more worried about warm air changing us over before the DS gets here, but it should be interesting to watch this play out. Don't worry about warm air. The dryslot will get us no doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32. This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast Watching Ryan's co-worker, and they have us (NE CT) with 2-4 and then a change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Watching Ryan's co-worker, and they have us (NE CT) with 2-4 and then a change to rain. You're gonna see a thousand different forecasts for this one..The less snowy,warmer ones are using the US garbage and the colder ones are incorporating the Euro and colder foreign models. Most of the tv media bases forecasts off of US models as you know.. I don't see how you get less than 5-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32. This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast I hope you're right. They have 37* in my p/c for tomorrow and 'mid-30's' in my zfp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I hope you're right. They have 37* in my p/c for tomorrow and 'mid-30's' in my zfp. 22 news has most of W.Mass. going over to mostly rain. Yet they are calling for 8+ near you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 22 news has most of W.Mass. going over to mostly rain. Yet they are calling for 8+ near you. I can't even find their map on their website anymore. Are they saying going to rain tomorrow or tonirhgt? BOX has heavy taint happening, tomorrow, too. Fortunatley, they have me getting 7-11" tonight before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I can't even find their map on their website anymore. Are they saying going to rain tomorrow or tonirhgt? BOX has heavy taint happening, tomorrow, too. Fortunatley, they have me getting 7-11" tonight before then. over night into the morning. I don't think they know what the hell is going to happen. They always like to down play every storm as much as possible so not to upset people. Pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 CNN is advertising Blizzard Conditions in NJ so if you are there enjoy the blizzard... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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