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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run?

I mean you can't always throw out something, but it is consistent. Tough to beat the other combos of guidance right now. It's important not to fall in love with the coldest set of guidance, but the euro at least IMHO, does make sense. I still would air on the side of caution a bit for your area...if the 06z GFS looks like the euro, then we probably know who to believe.

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I mean you can't always throw out something, but it is consistent. Tough to beat the other combos of guidance right now. It's important not to fall in love with the coldest set of guidance, but the euro at least IMHO, does make sense. I still would air on the side of caution a bit for your area...if the 06z GFS looks like the euro, then we probably know who to believe.

Pretty crazy difference this close to the event. Glad I don't have to go on TV and air a forecast at 4:30am.

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It gets the 850 0C line to within 5 or 10 miles of me in ENY. If that's the case I probably taint for awhile during the morning tomorrow. Forecasts is for all snow now, but I wouldn't be shocked to see some PL. So often those sneaky pockets of warmth are underforecast even.

6z NAM is still incredibly warm, were there errors again with this run?

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A bit surprised by this for my area......

WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-

WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-

EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHARLEMONT...GREENFIELD...ORANGE...

BARRE...FITCHBURG...CHESTERFIELD...BLANDFORD...AMHERST...

NORTHAMPTON...SPRINGFIELD...AYER

513 AM EST WED DEC 26 2012

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM

EST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS

EVENING TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN MASSACHUSETTS...

INCLUDING SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SLEET AND

FREEZING RAIN.

* TIMING...STARTING TONIGHT AROUND 7 PM.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...ALONG

WITH AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.

* IMPACTS...ANTICIPATED WINTER WEATHER WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS

DRIVING CONDITIONS TODAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SLIPPERY

CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR UNTREATED SURFACES. IN AREAS OF

HEAVY SNOW...VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS ARE

EXPECTED.

* WINDS...NORTH 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

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wtf is the lady on 22 news talking about worse case 2 to 4 for here!! im guessing shes looking at the nam and not the gfs or euro

Baylor? She was just on Twitter saying the same stuff. She absolutely sucks at responding to questions from people she doesn't know, but had a brief convo with Eric Fisher from TWC. She even thinks the Berkshire and Worcester hills TOP out at 4-8" and maxes Albany and NNE out to 12". Talk about conservative.

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yeah I dont get it

Baylor? She was just on Twitter saying the same stuff. She absolutely sucks at responding to questions from people she doesn't know, but had a brief convo with Eric Fisher from TWC. She even thinks the Berkshire and Worcester hills TOP out at 4-8" and maxes Albany and NNE out to 12". Talk about conservative.

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GYX bringing the love

SNOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND WILL

GRADUALLY OVER-SPREAD THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA

OVERNIGHT. WILL BE CONTINUING WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR INTERIOR

SECTIONS OF NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE WHERE 3 TO 8 INCHES OF

SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BY MORNING. EXPECT HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN

SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWEST MAINE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS

NORTH AND EAST. WILL BE CONTINUING WINTER STORM WATCHES FOR

COASTAL ZONES AS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE TIMING OF CHANGE-OVER

TO SLEET AND RAIN AND HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE BEFORE THEN.

SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN

INTERIOR MAINE AND NEW HAMPSHIRE. WILL LIKELY BE ISSUING WINDS

ADVISORIES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HEAVY WET SNOW

COMBINED WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN

POWER OUTAGES THROUGHOUT THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO

THURSDAY. EXPECT A CHANGE-OVER TO SLEET AND RAIN IN COASTAL NEW

HAMPSHIRE AND COASTAL MAINE ON THURSDAY WHICH WILL HOLD DOWN

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THOSE AREAS BUT STILL MAY REACH WARNING

CRITERIA BEFORE THAT CHANGE TAKES PLACE. WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT

HAVE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF THIS CHANGE BEFORE

COMMITING TO WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES. APPEARS STORM TOTALS WILL

RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

-- End Changed Discussion --

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Euro is definitely a nice hit for the interior, even down to Kevin. His area is really a tough call.

Euro is prob 5-8" for Kevin. I was thinking 3-5" for him originally, but euro def argues for more. I think it's also a matter of how quickly the arc of precip lifts north and the dryslot approaches...not just mid level temps.

Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32.

This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast

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Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32.

This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast

Watching Ryan's co-worker, and they have us (NE CT) with 2-4 and then a change to rain.

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Watching Ryan's co-worker, and they have us (NE CT) with 2-4 and then a change to rain.

You're gonna see a thousand different forecasts for this one..The less snowy,warmer ones are using the US garbage and the colder ones are incorporating the Euro and colder foreign models. Most of the tv media bases forecasts off of US models as you know..

I don't see how you get less than 5-6 inches

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Yeah I like 4-8 here then ice and again we never get to freezing. i mean BOX has low 40's here tomorrow. I just don't know what they look at there sometimes. Yesterday they had upper 30's here and we didn't hit 32.

This is a cold storm and cold airmass to work with. Euro is lethal now..so I just really hope noone is using the NAM to come up with a forecast

I hope you're right. They have 37* in my p/c for tomorrow and 'mid-30's' in my zfp.

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22 news has most of W.Mass. going over to mostly rain. Yet they are calling for 8+ near you.

I can't even find their map on their website anymore. Are they saying going to rain tomorrow or tonirhgt? BOX has heavy taint happening, tomorrow, too. Fortunatley, they have me getting 7-11" tonight before then.

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I can't even find their map on their website anymore. Are they saying going to rain tomorrow or tonirhgt? BOX has heavy taint happening, tomorrow, too. Fortunatley, they have me getting 7-11" tonight before then.

over night into the morning. I don't think they know what the hell is going to happen.

They always like to down play every storm as much as possible so not to upset people. Pathetic.

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