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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Yeah the temps are almost dead nuts with 12z, but this run was quicker as you mentioned, so in reality it drops a little more qpf as snow before any change here.

It comes close to never changing over near the MA/NH border.

What are we looking like for QPF?

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Yeah the temps are almost dead nuts with 12z, but this run was quicker as you mentioned, so in reality it drops a little more qpf as snow before any change here.

It comes close to never changing over near the MA/NH border.

Such and important storm for winter sports will. This is coming at the perfect time and is so desperately needed. Just great news. Very happy.

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I think people are getting too caught up in the east wind thing being a big deal here. I still don't understand how so many meteorologists can be so conservative for Boston, which is a snow town in SW Flow events generally. The GFS, which is MUCH warmer than the Euro or RGEM, still shows a solid frame of .25" QPF for Boston at 24 hours with the 850 line straddling the MA/CT border and the freezing line JUST north of Logan.

Dewpoints are in the teens right now even on the water. Don't see how you're going to change such a cold, dry airmass over that quickly especially knowing climo east of the Apps.

Finally, why are you still talking about the NAM when HPC has thrown it out for initialization errors?

Climo.

Boston is not really a snow town in any situation, its always a fight to get snow.

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Will, what's your call for us knaves in Boston and metro west?

Logan prob flips quick, but it does show temps just above freezing near the water at 00z...its pushed back to like 128 by 06z with the 35F isotherm running through BOS. I'd prob say an inch or two for Logan and maybe twice that for you. NW of 128 could be a 6 spot in metrowest...maybe a spot like Winchester/Woburn. Ray will probably do quite well getting a little further up toward 495.

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Logan prob flips quick, but it does show temps just above freezing near the water at 00z...its pushed back to like 128 by 06z with the 35F isotherm running through BOS. I'd prob say an inch or two for Logan and maybe twice that for you. NW of 128 could be a 6 spot in metrowest...maybe a spot like Winchester/Woburn. Ray will probably do quite well getting a little further up toward 495.

Well earlier I took a stab at 2-4 for MBY so I'm glad we agree. Thanks Will.

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Well earlier I took a stab at 2-4 for MBY so I'm glad we agree. Thanks Will.

Your obs will be interesting early in the event. It might be ripping really good so we'll have to see how much the omega/dynamics can offset the BL warmth trying to push westward.

There's def some bust potential. Its difficult to say exactly how the BL will set up...sometimes there is a more defined CF and other times it might be a bit more diffuse.

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Yeah the temps are almost dead nuts with 12z, but this run was quicker as you mentioned, so in reality it drops a little more qpf as snow before any change here.

It comes close to never changing over near the MA/NH border.

How much snow does it look like for this area (Tolland) before we change?

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Your obs will be interesting early in the event. It might be ripping really good so we'll have to see how much the omega/dynamics can offset the BL warmth trying to push westward.

There's def some bust potential. Its difficult to say exactly how the BL will set up...sometimes there is a more defined CF and other times it might be a bit more diffuse.

Well hopefully it's still snowing when I go to bed around this time tomorrow night.

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Logan prob flips quick, but it does show temps just above freezing near the water at 00z...its pushed back to like 128 by 06z with the 35F isotherm running through BOS. I'd prob say an inch or two for Logan and maybe twice that for you. NW of 128 could be a 6 spot in metrowest...maybe a spot like Winchester/Woburn. Ray will probably do quite well getting a little further up toward 495.

:( :( :( :(

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Euro argues for a good bit of snow there, but like I said, we'll have to watch how quickly the DS moves in. That always like to ruin the party a little earlier for some.

I'm actually more worried about warm air changing us over before the DS gets here, but it should be interesting to watch this play out.

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