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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Oh okay...yeah the BOX map barely has my area in 8-10"...like a few miles from 6-8"...which is a few miles from 4-6"....and so on. Hell of a forecast here. As bad as it gets.

I don't think I will get that much more than you in this...you are inland and high enough in elevation that BL issues are moot. You might go to a paste for a bit while I stay drier snow longer...I'd only expect to get an inch or so more than you in this setup. Models are trying to warm the BL way too quickly...if they actually do warm it fast as they try, then we'd see a larger discrepency between our snow totals, but I'm not buying it much right now. I don't have any latitude advantage on you if you are on the northern side of Shrewsbury.

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Looking at the GFS yeah it does get those >0C 850s north of here pretty fast, but that front thump is pretty sick for about 9 hours. I also think it might be shooting those ML temps up too fast just based off the fact that it's done that multiple times this season so far (some amateur voodoo meteorology).

It looks like this run had about .8-.9 QPF here as snow, then .1-.2" of ice before some cold rain. Another 30 miles south east and we would really have a lot of pants tents around here.

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I don't think I will get that much more than you in this...you are inland and high enough in elevation that BL issues are moot. You might go to a paste for a bit while I stay drier snow longer...I'd only expect to get an inch or so more than you in this setup. Models are trying to warm the BL way too quickly...if they actually do warm it fast as they try, then we'd see a larger discrepency between our snow totals, but I'm not buying it much right now. I don't have any latitude advantage on you if you are on the northern side of Shrewsbury.

you gonna make a forecast map? I'm curious to see your thoughts region wide.

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I don't think I will get that much more than you in this...you are inland and high enough in elevation that BL issues are moot. You might go to a paste for a bit while I stay drier snow longer...I'd only expect to get an inch or so more than you in this setup. Models are trying to warm the BL way too quickly...if they actually do warm it fast as they try, then we'd see a larger discrepency between our snow totals, but I'm not buying it much right now. I don't have any latitude advantage on you if you are on the northern side of Shrewsbury.

Thanks for your input Will. I was curious, so I just checked, I am approx. 1 mile north of ORH airport and 6-7 miles east...just about 500' lower in elevation. I guess since we are west of 495 or that general area the longitude advantage doesn't have much of an effect?

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JMHO if it's a real thing that NCEP noted, that would entirely explain the later differences between the NAM and to an extent the GFS vs the Euro. Go cold.

Yes, as I said, the convective rip down south might be putting too much estimated input into the system....

No worried for you winter heads:

"NON-NAM COMPROMISE WITH AVERAGE CONFIDENCE

INITIALLY, THE 00Z NAM APPEARS TO BE 2-3C TOO WARM WITH ITS 850

HPA FREEZING LINE ACROSS VIRGINIA/MARYLAND AND THE UPPER OHIO

VALLEY. THE 00Z GFS PROBLEMS ARE CONSTRAINED TO A 2-3C ERROR IN

THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THESE 850 HPA TEMPERATURE ERRORS HAVE

POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS FOR THEIR FORECAST WINTER WEATHER

PRECIPITATION TYPES EARLY ON."

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Thanks for your input Will. I was curious, so I just checked, I am approx. 1 mile north of ORH airport and 6-7 miles east...just about 500' lower in elevation. I guess since we are west of 495 or that general area the longitude advantage doesn't have much of an effect?

Yeah in this setup I don't see it being a huge difference. Maybe an extra inch or two for a bit drier snow near the end before it flips and maybe a little upslope advantage to your west. If this storm trended into an all snow event for us, then I could see a larger discrepency since BL issues might start to become a factor in the 2nd half of the storm.

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KING FTW. Older posters know what I mean...where's LL when you need him?

That's fine. I agree. KING FTW. But you want me to solely rely on a model run that is now 17 hours old. That initialized before all of the intense and insane convection in the southeast. And assuming that the Euro from yesterday morning is correct. Locals in south of the pike are going to need every flake to stick to reach warning criteria.

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People are obsessing over mid level temps too much....it's also about the dryslot that moves in. Models have a good 4-6 hr thump and then the dryslot moves in. Precip will regenerate at the same time, but the 900-800 level really warms thanks to the low wrapping in a pocket of warm air right into SNE.

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post-33-0-37723100-1356498245_thumb.gif

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That's fine. I agree. KING FTW. But you want me to solely rely on a model run that is now 17 hours old. That initialized before all of the intense and insane convection in the southeast. And assuming that the Euro from yesterday morning is correct. Locals in south of the pike are going to need every flake to stick to reach warning criteria.

What's with this grandiosity stuff ?? Relax. This is under control.

NCEP has pretty much confirmed that the NAM/GFS are warm biased, and Scott and I told us most likely why.

This is a big snow event outside of the I 95 phukador ...plus some contamination, but you're good.

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Yeah in this setup I don't see it being a huge difference. Maybe an extra inch or two for a bit drier snow near the end before it flips and maybe a little upslope advantage to your west. If this storm trended into an all snow event for us, then I could see a larger discrepency since BL issues might start to become a factor in the 2nd half of the storm.

Thanks Will. Look forward to the Euro.

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This is the holiday spirits speaking but this storm fooking blows looks at the nws box map

There will be a wide variety of opinions on this storm over the region...such is the case for a transfering coastal hugger with a merely seasonal airmass in place.

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What's with this grandiosity stuff ?? Relax. This is under control.

NCEP has pretty much confirmed that the NAM/GFS are warm biased, and Scott and I told us most likely why.

This is a big snow event outside of the I 95 phukador ...plus some contamination, but you're good.

Best snow event since Halloween of 2011. lol. I'm just kinda amazed at how some can find 8" of snow from a model run. That's all well and good. Sure if everything worked absolutely perfect 8" could happen. But when you consider reality 8" ain't happening.

I would like to point out that I hope this things tracks further east up the Apps. Redevelops off Hatteras and makes a direct path for ACK. That would be great.

If only we could get the secondary to redevelop offshore.....

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There will be a wide variety of opinions on this storm over the region...such is the case for a transfering coastal hugger with a merely seasonal airmass in place.

I think your ORH number is a good start right now. The euro is so close to a snow bomb too for Kevin, but I'd like to see what the 00z run does.

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Best snow event since Halloween of 2011. lol. I'm just kinda amazed at how some can find 8" of snow from a model run. That's all well and good. Sure if everything worked absolutely perfect 8" could happen. But when you consider reality 8" ain't happening.

I would like to point out that I hope this things tracks further east up the Apps. Redevelops off Hatteras and makes a direct path for ACK. That would be great.

If only we could get the secondary to redevelop offshore.....

So true - and wow, you know?! I'm thinking the 2ndary is between the Del Marv and ISP then goes nuts there. That's "usually" not rain at HFD.

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I think your ORH number is a good start right now. The euro is so close to a snow bomb too for Kevin, but I'd like to see what the 00z run does.

Not an easy forecast overall but the non-NAM consensus is pretty decent agreement for 6"+ here. GFS is a touch lower at 00z because of qpf variation. The Foreign models continue to run very cold.

The key will be staying snow through about 09z tomorrow night.

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So true - and wow, you know?! I'm thinking the 2ndary is between the Del Marv and ISP then goes nuts there. That's "usually" not rain at HFD.

Ya cuz I thought March 1 of last year sucked. What is the chances we can get this thing to wrap up more than is being modeled. I mean the Euro is only 992 mb as it goes by. If we get this thing to redevelop even a little further east. With the baroclinic processes involved off the East Coast. We could get this thing to deepen a little bit further and allow the dynamics to do their thing.

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Very similar and hour or 2 faster than the 12z but maybe a tiny bit colder? Toss the ncep stuff, the init errors/data grid rendered them kind of useless it seems

Yeah the temps are almost dead nuts with 12z, but this run was quicker as you mentioned, so in reality it drops a little more qpf as snow before any change here.

It comes close to never changing over near the MA/NH border.

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