dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Is the qpf near 2 again? If it is, and if the Euro holds serve, I am going to demand that you up your forecast. We'll see in the morning as I am heading to sleep. Nighty. Yes it is here, Mark, I will look at it again after 0z, And adjust if need be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 prelim call 4-8 inches ottawa 6-10 inches montreal 8-14 inches N vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Crushed You might see a white explorer doing doughnuts in your hood thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'll lock 6-10'' here. Hope for higher but that just seems more realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm liking 6-10" for ORH northward in central MA...probably more like 4-6" for S ORH county. I'd prob go like 7" for MBY...but I'd like to see one more Euro run. The NAM warmer solutions are interesting and throw a hint of doubt into the forecast amongst an otherwise excellent model consensus. Yeah those numbers look nice. I just don't see those numbers BOX has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 You might see a white explorer doing doughnuts in your hood thursday lol, Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights? http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights? http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif That's definitely tonights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights? RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better. RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday. You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 http://www.weatherof...ast/512_100.gif http://www.weatherof...ast/513_100.gif That's definitely tonights. So it is. Interesting that the link that I grabbed that someone posted early won't update. No matter how many times I hit refresh it is still last night's 00z run. Damn technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Does this GFS run look more like the Euro 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think ri and e ma to 495 is torched,w the exception of from nw wilmington over to andover prob holdin on to a hvy pasting for a while. I think the rev could do well do to his longitude but very low confidence s of pike do to ml temp questionmarks. Foothills of maine into gunstock,nh area jpot imo. With killington also perhaps getting in the jpot. If u count upslope stowe will prob be there as well as sugarbush. Just some thoughts based on surface track, crazy e flow, also watch ctotched mtn , 25 miles west of mht, could get huge totals there in n monads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So it is. Interesting that the link that I grabbed that someone posted early won't update. No matter how many times I hit refresh it is still last night's 00z run. Damn technology. Clear your cache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Whole lotta meh and wet for my neck of the woods. Let me know when a big January snow is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Does this GFS run look more like the Euro 12Z? Its a shade warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 So it is. Interesting that the link that I grabbed that someone posted early won't update. No matter how many times I hit refresh it is still last night's 00z run. Damn technology. Here's tonights vs the 12z same time. The one with a bit more ML warming is the 0z tonight (look for pinks in CT for those with tired eyes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I wish you the best of luck and hope that you are right. I wish everyone snow. But I just worry about warm temps advecting in and ruining our chances of higher totals. Even if you use the 850 0 C line as the rain snow line on tonight's GFS, then N CT ends up with .5" of snow. Assuming that all sticks as snow with a 10-1 ratio, then we may approach low end warning numbers. But I'm not excited about these chances. Why are you using the GFS for anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbieL241 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better. RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday. You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest. http://www.weatherof...st/index_e.html Do you have the approx. time when the changeover occurs for the I84 corridor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NorEastermass128, on 25 December 2012 - 10:42 PM, said: 12+ for you! Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here. Boston: < 1" Worcester: 4-7" Manchester: 6-9" RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 anyone want to take a stab at lowell/chelmsford cond. around 3am thursday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NorEastermass128, on 25 December 2012 - 10:42 PM, said: 12+ for you! Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here. Boston: < 1" Worcester: 4-7" Manchester: 6-9" RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today. I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown... KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better. RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday. You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest. http://www.weatherof...st/index_e.html Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here. GGEM isn't that good of a model anyway...its worse than the GFS, Euro, and Ukie for verification scores. RGEM though can do pretty well in the short term. So I like to look at it a bit more...though you have to take some of its obscene qpf totals with a grain of salt, ala the NAM sometimes. Usually when the RGEM and NAM agree, its a high confidence solution. They do not agree at all right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here. I don't pay much attention to it either...kind of like the SUNY MM5. Often referenced but.... MM5 through Wednesday evening is warmer than the 12z. I have zero confidence in the MM5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown... KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up. I meant to quote that from Northeasternmass128's post with Will crossed off since he just showed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Why are you using the GFS for anything? Would you rather I use the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Man the RGEM and to some degree the euro, look extremely close for several hours even down in sw CT... Id guess we can pull off 2" before a change over here in Stamford. Tough forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown... KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up. I think Logan is 2" or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Does the antecedent airmass matter or will it get scoured out anyway? It's 22 atm and dropping quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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