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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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I'm liking 6-10" for ORH northward in central MA...probably more like 4-6" for S ORH county.

I'd prob go like 7" for MBY...but I'd like to see one more Euro run. The NAM warmer solutions are interesting and throw a hint of doubt into the forecast amongst an otherwise excellent model consensus.

Yeah those numbers look nice. I just don't see those numbers BOX has.

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Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights?

http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=180

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Someone wanna help me out again. Where are people finding tonight's 00z Canadian run? Are we sure that people are posting about tonight's and not last nights?

RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better.

RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday.

You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/index_e.html

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I think ri and e ma to 495 is torched,w the exception of from nw wilmington over to andover prob holdin on to a hvy pasting for a while. I think the rev could do well do to his longitude but very low confidence s of pike do to ml temp questionmarks. Foothills of maine into gunstock,nh area jpot imo. With killington also perhaps getting in the jpot. If u count upslope stowe will prob be there as well as sugarbush. Just some thoughts based on surface track, crazy e flow, also watch ctotched mtn , 25 miles west of mht, could get huge totals there in n monads

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I wish you the best of luck and hope that you are right. I wish everyone snow. But I just worry about warm temps advecting in and ruining our chances of higher totals. Even if you use the 850 0 C line as the rain snow line on tonight's GFS, then N CT ends up with .5" of snow. Assuming that all sticks as snow with a 10-1 ratio, then we may approach low end warning numbers. But I'm not excited about these chances.

Why are you using the GFS for anything?

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RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better.

RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday.

You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest.

http://www.weatherof...st/index_e.html

Do you have the approx. time when the changeover occurs for the I84 corridor?

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snapback.pngNorEastermass128, on 25 December 2012 - 10:42 PM, said:

12+ for you!

Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here.

Boston: < 1"

Worcester: 4-7"

Manchester: 6-9"

RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today.

I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown...

KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up.

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RGEM is out...GGEM is not out yet. Two different runs...though this close in, the RGEM performs better.

RGEM absolutely crushes north of the pike. Doesn't flip it until near 10-12z Thursday.

You can get it here...the black and white charts seem to come out quickest.

http://www.weatherof...st/index_e.html

Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here.

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Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here.

GGEM isn't that good of a model anyway...its worse than the GFS, Euro, and Ukie for verification scores.

RGEM though can do pretty well in the short term. So I like to look at it a bit more...though you have to take some of its obscene qpf totals with a grain of salt, ala the NAM sometimes. Usually when the RGEM and NAM agree, its a high confidence solution. They do not agree at all right now.

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Thank you sir. My issue was refreshing the GGEM not RGEM. Didn't realize that there were two different products put out by the Canadian Office. Only really pay attention to the Canadian when someone posts about it on here.

I don't pay much attention to it either...kind of like the SUNY MM5. Often referenced but....

MM5 through Wednesday evening is warmer than the 12z. I have zero confidence in the MM5.

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I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown...

KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up.

I meant to quote that from Northeasternmass128's post with Will crossed off since he just showed up

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I just can't see how Boston gets less than an inch. I would think at least 2-4" for Logan and 3-6" for downtown...

KBOS is at 29/17 right now with excellent radiational cooling conditions. This is a decent airmass. With heavy QPF and sub 0C 850s, it's going to take a while to warm up.

I think Logan is 2" or less.

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