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December 27/28 Storm Part II


Typhoon Tip

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Regardless of how this plays--this is a pretty impressive winter weather map here. Hopefully we'll see many like this down the road. Now, to the GFS....

Mean track is a little SE of the previous systems (Chicago gets nothing this time)..hopefully by the weekend it's far enough east there are no precip issues.

GFS at 0z seems to be pretty similar to the 18z. Slight timing differences which make it look like there are temp changes but I'm not sure that's the case.

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i'd be nervous about the nam's consistency and the fact that we're within 36 hours now

I've got no stake in the game since I'll be in NNE where all models show lots of snow. Out of curiosity though, are you personally putting more weight with the NAM or with the globals? They're night and day, completely different.

What's your call?

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Cause I'm calling for 6-10 here toward points nw, I've stuck with that since last nightt

I wish you the best of luck and hope that you are right. I wish everyone snow. But I just worry about warm temps advecting in and ruining our chances of higher totals. Even if you use the 850 0 C line as the rain snow line on tonight's GFS, then N CT ends up with .5" of snow. Assuming that all sticks as snow with a 10-1 ratio, then we may approach low end warning numbers. But I'm not excited about these chances.

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When are you going to make a call? You seem to be tentative, What is skewing your thoughts?

The flu? lol

I'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too.

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The flu? lol

I'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too.

actually, the dry slot is my biggest worry at this point. A shift east by 25 or 50 miles might keep us just west of it.

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I'm liking 6-10" for ORH northward in central MA...probably more like 4-6" for S ORH county.

I'd prob go like 7" for MBY...but I'd like to see one more Euro run. The NAM warmer solutions are interesting and throw a hint of doubt into the forecast amongst an otherwise excellent model consensus.

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The flu? lol

I'm worried about some dryslot issues sneaking in at some point and/or some mid level taint. There will be a lot of snow regardless, but it is scaring me from those 12-18" numbers. I'm liking a general 8-12" right now for my area...6-10" toward CON. There's room to bump those up a couple of inches too.

Yeah, Hope your feeling better, Sounds like it has been a battle for you, I figured it was a warm layer that had your attention, I have 10-14" here, the fact that the Nam is really the only model that's getting the H85 pretty far NW at the moment does not concern me unless there is another warm layer in there somewhere but i would have thumped pretty well before then, It seems for here anyways that it crashes back SE before i see it, 0z GFS was colder and slightly east here with close to 2.00" qpf so i have room to go up as well me thinks............. :)

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12+ for you!

Confident to make my final call for 2-5" here.

Boston: < 1"

Worcester: 4-7"

Manchester: 6-9"

RED FLAGS: Noyes not bullish, DT all rain SNE, NAM, no ORHwxman, no 40/70 online today.

There's actually a variable, Psi, in the physics for that multi-parametric derivation :wacko2:

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