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December 27/28 Storm Part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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mattmfm

mattmfm

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 4:22 PM, CT Rain said:

Yeah... dry slot is going to come in fast and furious south of the Pike. Very SWFE in that respect for parts of SNE. It's once you get into the Berkshires and Monadnocks to PWM points northwest where everything lines up to keep crushing cold conveyor snows after the initial surge that rides the strong warm advection on the LLJ.

Leaving for Killington in about an hour. I'm totally weenieing out... 2 laptops at the ready!

Can I come? :D

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 4:57 PM, SnowMan said:

Where is the dry slot on those? How can you tell where it is located?

Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in.

Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:04 PM, moneypitmike said:

I'm encouraged by the potential for a shift colder--perhaps keep the taint away. If that happens, of course then the worry comes to whether the qpf will be substantial enough to make up for crappy ratios. Dave and I need to have a few beets......

Yeah god forbid that may cut into your qof total..................... :lol:

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:04 PM, mattmfm said:

Can I come? :D

Coast should rip some good gusts. Nothing more fun than ripping mangled flakes with a 50 knot gust for shore dwellers.

I don't know what I'm more stoked about... the snowstorm or the skiing. Paul and my friends are probably going to absolutely kill me tonight with my weather geek out fest.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:00 PM, SnowMan said:

Isn't Keene a snow hole because of the mountains in the area?

I'm on mobile but the local meso models show the downslope areas well. I think there are gonna b 2 gradients. One (obv) nw of cfront) and another where upslope and down slope areas could be extreme diff.
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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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  On 12/26/2012 at 5:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in.

Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z.

So by 09z dryslot is approching srn NH, but notice the lift behind it trying to regenerate precip.

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SnowMan

SnowMan

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:05 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ah ok. Well the shaded areas are deeper 850mb-500mb RH. The darker shading is 90% or greater. The lighter almost hatched looking is 70%. The 80% area is noted by a littlw hite line. So the idea is that when you start getting near 70% or less RH, that's an indication of drier air moving in.

Now see the darker purples and blues and reds and yellows? That's lift in that 850-500mb column. Notice how the darker shading moves north, but tons of yellows and reds and even blues over NE MA at 12z tomorrow. This means that we have lots of lift, despite perhaps the model saying the whole layer will not be saturated. To me, this means the precip across nrn MA and srn NH may be more banded or showery (doesn't mean rain) in nature. Bulf of precip shuts off except maybe drizzle in CT after 12z.

Great explanation - thanks!

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 4:57 PM, litchfieldlibations said:

What a fantastic bust in the good direction for the folks in and around dc and baltimore;..........always fun when that happens.

Yeah, it's p-type telling perhaps for areas up this way.

I'm looking around at obs and going, "huh" - it's barely 30 around interior zones after a morning of full sun, and DPs are in the teens. We have +PP situated N of the area.

I'm just kind of flummoxed at where the NAM is getting all this warm push into that environment, from. I tell you what, if the NAM wins that - wow. But I don't think it will of course considering that its already busting warm all over the place due to its apparent inability to handle this system et al.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted

you know what is interesting if perhaps telling also is that the high country of W VA and western areas of VA, are having trouble staying rain; according to intellicast's p-type algorithms. That region of the cyclone is actually about to enter the 700mb dry slot properly, having never really warmed very much.

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mattmfm

mattmfm

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:07 PM, CT Rain said:

Coast should rip some good gusts. Nothing more fun than ripping mangled flakes with a 50 knot gust for shore dwellers.

I don't know what I'm more stoked about... the snowstorm or the skiing. Paul and my friends are probably going to absolutely kill me tonight with my weather geek out fest.

Meh nothing exciting about a cold wind driven rain. Thinking about going up to Okemo or Killington Friday to ski.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:13 PM, CT Rain said:

It's funny how the GFS wraps so much dry air into the storm around 700mb. That's why I think dry slot overperforms and will probably be a bit farther NW than you'd think with that kind of track. 700mb is broad so the best forcing winds up far NW.

well, "if" that is right, sure...

It'll be interesting to now-cast for that. If the model(s) are wrong to be displacing the cold as much as they have been, that would feed-back into the cyclone's deep layer structure - ... effectively making that product wrong. But we'll see...

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Ossipee may work best. My friend had a place in Wakefield near there but it takes some work to get the winter mode working and it's on a dirt road...could take an extra day to leave so I'll opt for a town location somewhere. Lakes region....Sanford, fryeburg, ossipee....

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:15 PM, mahk_webstah said:

How far ia hanover or north xonway

North Conway is probably 2.5 for Jerry. You want to be on the east side of the mtns for this. My area near the lake actually downslopes with NE winds from the Ossipees sometimes. Usually near Gunstock and north to Conway gets crushed with this setup.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/26/2012 at 5:16 PM, weathafella said:

Ossipee may work best. My friend had a place in Wakefield near there but it takes some work to get the winter mode working and it's on a dirt road...could take an extra day to leave so I'll opt for a town location somewhere. Lakes region....Sanford, fryeburg, ossipee....

I think those are good choices. Stay SE of the Ossipee mtns.

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