December 27/28 Storm Part II

[N. OF PIKE]

cant' wait to see where the CF sets up on this one. should be very fierce in SE NH into N mass

also the totals near wildcat mtn should be insane if the local meso models have a good handle on this with 2.25 qpf on the mountain.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's something wrong with the NAM right now...its performing so poorly in this storm. I just checked the 12z run just starting to come out and its already woefully too slow with the precip in the mid-atlantic.

You have me 4-7 then some ice then dryslot correct?

[Bostonseminole]

Nice to see 6z GFS a tad cooler, any shift make a huge difference for many us down south.

[N. OF PIKE]

any mets dare put any guesses as to where CF sets up later tonite for the qpf thump.

Also very cold in NNE this am. -2 at montpielier,vt . 7 at rutland (CNE)

[Logan11]

I'm kind of weary of models now....wil take a quick look. But it's almost real time mode. Lately I have been trying to enjoy the snowstorms the old fashioned way once they are underway and not sitting behind a monitor the whole time doing analysis. LOL

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:52 PM, moneypitmike said:

LOL--Pete can lend him one, I'm sure.

I think it's close for NW areas to stick with snow. I'm honpeing the ds may pass east of here--I think that may be the case.

I think Eric, Dendrite and Jeff are going to be in full weenie form as the 12z suite unfolds.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Pete should get a foot. Maybe 14"

[dryslot]

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:55 PM, ORH_wxman said:

There's something wrong with the NAM right now...its performing so poorly in this storm. I just checked the 12z run just starting to come out and its already woefully too slow with the precip in the mid-atlantic.

It needs to be looked into, Its just been pretty bad overall

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:57 PM, cpick79 said:

cant' wait to see where the CF sets up on this one. should be very fierce in SE NH into N mass

also the totals near wildcat mtn should be insane if the local meso models have a good handle on this with 2.25 qpf on the mountain.

I think the cf is going to be just nw of me, unfortunately....

[moneypitmike]

Does anyone know where the front edge of ground precip is? I imagine there's a portion of this being evaporated.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:02 PM, moneypitmike said:

Does anyone know where the front edge of ground precip is? I imagine there's a portion of this being evaporated.

Noyes tweeted it doesn't start in NYC and SW CT until dinner time

[dryslot]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:02 PM, moneypitmike said:

Does anyone know where the front edge of ground precip is? I imagine there's a portion of this being evaporated.

That is a nice moisture plume heading NNE

[teebrdsfan]

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:57 PM, cpick79 said:

cant' wait to see where the CF sets up on this one. should be very fierce in SE NH into N mass

also the totals near wildcat mtn should be insane if the local meso models have a good handle on this with 2.25 qpf on the mountain.

Seems like SE NH is either gonna score big or turn to glop, causing an 8" or so difference in totals in a small area

[WeatherEmperor]

That's one of the more impressive precip shields I've seen for NE in a long time.

[West Point, NY]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:02 PM, moneypitmike said:

Does anyone know where the front edge of ground precip is? I imagine there's a portion of this being evaporated.

http://www.wrh.noaa....php?map=ny&wfo=

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:00 PM, Logan11 said:

I'm kind of weary of models now....wil take a quick look. But it's almost real time mode. Lately I have been trying to enjoy the snowstorms the old fashioned way once they are underway and not sitting behind a monitor the whole time doing analysis. LOL

Agree on this--I was htinking the same thing that once the snow starts, I'm going to sit back and enjoy. I'll post my measurements as I take them, but no sense staring at the monitor. Unless of ocurse its snowing at night........er--wait a minute.

Congratulations on using "weary" correctly. The use of 'weary', 'wary', 'leary', and 'leery' on this board is a hoot. The misuse of 'up-stream' vs. 'downstream' is also comical.

Of course, it's excusable if people have had too many beets.

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:01 PM, HubbDave said:

Pete should get a foot. Maybe 14"

Sitting here in the 10-14" zone on the Box map. If the dryslot can pass east of here, I think that's realistic--and if the taint issue is minor, of course.

19/14

[mattb65]

Just for ground verification - 6Z NAM showed a changeover prior to precip arriving and no snow at all for DC, BWI and suburbs, while the GFS, GGEM and Euro showed a start as pingers flipping dynamically to snow. If you go read the obs thread in the mid atlantic thread you'll see the global models were all right. Lots of obs of folks starting as IP or RN flipping pretty quickly to heavy accumulating snow.

[dryslot]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:09 PM, moneypitmike said:

Agree on this--I was htinking the same thing that once the snow starts, I'm going to sit back and enjoy. I'll post my measurements as I take them, but no sense staring at the monitor. Unless of ocurse its snowing at night........er--wait a minute.

Congratulations on using "weary" correctly. The use of 'weary', 'wary', 'leary', and 'leery' on this board is a hoot. The misuse of 'up-stream' vs. 'downstream' is also comical.

Of course, it's excusable if people have had too many beets.

Sitting here in the 10-14" zone on the Box map. If the dryslot can pass east of here, I think that's realistic--and if the taint issue is minor, of course.

19/14

Congrats Mike, But if you have power, You will be staring at the monitor, Good try though...........

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:09 PM, West Mtn NY said:

http://www.wrh.noaa....php?map=ny&wfo=

thanks--looks like the precip is already into DE and PA then.

Looks like the NAM continues the toaster bath.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 12/26/2012 at 1:58 PM, cpick79 said:

any mets dare put any guesses as to where CF sets up later tonite for the qpf thump.

Also very cold in NNE this am. -2 at montpielier,vt . 7 at rutland (CNE)

18/13 imby. Many of the Wunderground stations out here were in the teens this morning with low DP's. Good low level cold entrenched.

[CT Rain]

I'm really impressed with how cold the GFS is. That's going to yield a nice surprise for many people. Even Hartford could put down 6 inches!

I sort of think that for places south of the Pike this is going to sort of act like a SWFE. Thump of snow maybe tainted by pingers for a time and then dry slot. The mid level low track is probably too far north to put up fun numbers south and east of ORH... but northwest of there you can envision a nice deformation zone/cold conveyor belt setting up.

[Chrisrotary12]

Since the Coastal Front is going to be such a key component in this system (and the topic of my thesis hopefully) does anyone know of some good literature that looks at the CF in New England nor'easters.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:16 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

Since the Coastal Front is going to be such a key component in this system (and the topic of my thesis hopefully) does anyone know of some good literature that looks at the CF in New England nor'easters.

Wow...I'd love to read it when you're done.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:12 PM, Cold Front said:

Congrats Mike, But if you have power, You will be staring at the monitor, Good try though...........

Of course he will.

I just bought my first Weather Tap monthly scrip since last winter. lol

[weatherMA]

NAM actually gives me like 4" this run. Getting there. Increased confidence in 5-9", might up to 6-10" pending 12z EURO.

[flatearth13]

mix of snow and sleet started around 9 am in Monkton, MD (20 miles north of Baltimore/20 miles south of York PA). Temp 30 deg

[bboughton]

Is that more snow on 1/2?

[dryslot]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:18 PM, Happy Valley said:

Of course he will.

I just bought my first Weather Tap monthly scrip since last winter. lol

lol, We all will, I have had my Weather Tap script for the last 4yrs or so

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:18 PM, Happy Valley said:

Of course he will.

I just bought my first Weather Tap monthly scrip since last winter. lol

I'm on the free trial this week (timed it well). Aside from radar, do you find it worthwhile? i was just looking around a bit and was underwhelmed At least at a REALLY quick first glance.

[mahk_webstah]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:15 PM, CT Rain said:

I'm really impressed with how cold the GFS is. That's going to yield a nice surprise for many people. Even Hartford could put down 6 inches!

I sort of think that for places south of the Pike this is going to sort of act like a SWFE. Thump of snow maybe tainted by pingers for a time and then dry slot. The mid level low track is probably too far north to put up fun numbers south and east of ORH... but northwest of there you can envision a nice deformation zone/cold conveyor belt setting up.

Where do you think that deform and cold conveyer sets up? that is my hope for some higher ratio snow at some point during the system. I guess there should be a deform band way up near the border, but will there also be one in CNE or lower NNE?

[dryslot]

  On 12/26/2012 at 2:25 PM, moneypitmike said:

I'm on the free trial this week (timed it well). Aside from radar, do you find it worthwhile? i was just looking around a bit and was underwhelmed At least at a REALLY quick first glance.

The radar is really good i think, There is no lag or very little to when the precip starts to fall over your area, I called it within 5 mins to when it was going to start snowing yesterday..