vastateofmind Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 it would be comical if it wasn't so pathetic if you click on this loop of 2m temps off the 18z GFS, the freezing line moves north as soon as the precip moves into the DCA/Central MD area....un-effin-believable you're going to have to click on this and then click on LOOP http://mag.ncep.noaa...=10m_wnd_precip Of course it does. But, since meteorological winter just started, I won't "ween" out just yet. The temptation is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Of course it does. But, since meteorological winter just started, I won't "ween" out just yet. The temptation is there. Astronomical winter? Met winter is 1/3 over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Astronomical winter? Met winter is 1/3 over. You could argue that "our" winter is more closely tied to astro winter. I'd bet your snowfall chart would back that up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 You could argue that "our" winter is more closely tied to astro winter. I'd bet your snowfall chart would back that up. the start is, the end is closer to met winter, giving us a whopping 8-9 weeks of what "might" be considered winter wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 the start is, the end is closer to met winter, giving us a whopping 8-9 weeks of what "might" be considered winter wx I agree. We've had basically no snow here in March since 1993. Heck, you very well might be able to say that about Presidents / Valentines Day also. I'd argue that we have a lot more snow pre-Dec 21 than post March 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Man this board needs snow. Like a pack of hungry dogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 You could argue that "our" winter is more closely tied to astro winter. I'd bet your snowfall chart would back that up. Not around here really tho eary March is still game if desperate. Maybe for you in elevation. DC is losing snow on both edges as far as I can tell but our DEC avg is higher than MAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I think there will be a general 5-10 inch event for the area in late January or early February. Just a feeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Not around here really tho eary March is still game if desperate. Maybe for you in elevation. DC is losing snow on both edges as far as I can tell but our DEC avg is higher than MAR. If you get a chance Ian, post that snow chart again. I'd like to save that image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 If you get a chance Ian, post that snow chart again. I'd like to save that image. On my phone so in case I forget google December 5th Coincidence and it's there at least in small form. I think it might suggest Mar is better than it is tho since it includes the whole period. Might be worth breaking it our but I'm not sure 30 years paints the picture on something like that. Actually, just looked and it does show that sharp dropoff at least by mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 On my phone so in case I forget google December 5th Coincidence and it's there at least in small form. I think it might suggest Mar is better than it is tho since it includes the whole period. Might be worth breaking it our but I'm not sure 30 years paints the picture on something like that. Actually, just looked and it does show that sharp dropoff at least by mid month. I think this is the one Ian made for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 On my phone so in case I forget google December 5th Coincidence and it's there at least in small form. I think it might suggest Mar is better than it is tho since it includes the whole period. Might be worth breaking it our but I'm not sure 30 years paints the picture on something like that. Actually, just looked and it does show that sharp dropoff at least by mid month. I got it Ian. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Overunning requires a very cold air mass for it to be significant because by its very nature the intrusion of warm air creates the lifting mechanism. If you start at 32 you have no room for warm air advection. I know this is over simplifying it but all the good overrunning events I remember happened when temps were in the teens or low 20's at the start. We have had a lack of true arctic air and thus overrunning of late. overrunning never works around here either due to suppression or the warm air wins out and we get a lot of rain after some snow PDII had an extended period of what could be considered overrunning before the storm hit, but that is the exception and a totally different beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Not around here really tho eary March is still game if desperate. Maybe for you in elevation. DC is losing snow on both edges as far as I can tell but our DEC avg is higher than MAR. December never seemed like a huge snow month in the past but the last 10 years have has several notable events so I'm not sure I agree we are losing snow on the front end but it is undeniable that for whatever reason spring is coming earlier and earlier in dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 December never seemed like a huge snow month in the past but the last 10 years have has several notable events so I'm not sure I agree we are losing snow on the front end but it is undeniable that for whatever reason spring is coming earlier and earlier in dc. Yeah maybe poorly worded. I think Dec avg went up with this update to climo? Mean more on the margins.. Some smaller events don't accumulate as much. In a transition zone each degree is pretty critical. There has also seemed to be an increase in the largest events of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 it is undeniable that for whatever reason spring is coming earlier and earlier in dc. It's not just DC, it's pretty much the whole northern hemisphere. It's climate change, at least in part, but I won't get into details outside of the CC forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Big jump in a few SREF members for northern extent of precip. Just 3 or 4, but it's a noticeable change. Whether it means anything or not, I won't speculate. I hope we get something even if it's just a few flurries. Of all the things that can be modeled in winter, the one that depresses me most is dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Overunning requires a very cold air mass for it to be significant because by its very nature the intrusion of warm air creates the lifting mechanism. If you start at 32 you have no room for warm air advection. I know this is over simplifying it but all the good overrunning events I remember happened when temps were in the teens or low 20's at the start. We have had a lack of true arctic air and thus overrunning of late. Do you (or anyone else) know of examples where you've had 8+ inch snows from an overrunning-based storm (without a big coastal low)? Some of our bigger, widespread snowstorms across the south have come from this type of setup (waa being thrown back into a massive cold high), but I was curious as to how often that has occurred in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 It's not just DC, it's pretty much the whole northern hemisphere. It's climate change, at least in part, but I won't get into details outside of the CC forum. I agree I worded that way to avoid a political debate in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Man this board needs snow. Like a pack of hungry dogs. yep, it's been a ruff 3 years w/o snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 th/ Do you (or anyone else) know of examples where you've had 8+ inch snows from an overrunning-based storm (without a big coastal low)? Some of our bigger, widespread snowstorms across the south have come from this type of setup (waa being thrown back into a massive cold high), but I was curious as to how often that has occurred in the DC area. I think the January 29th/30th 2010 event could be considered an overrunning situation. We also had a pretty nice event back in December 1990 between Christmas and New Years. It may have been on the 27th. Although it did not produce widespread 8plus amounts, most areas received between 4 and 8 with some isolated 10's. I'm pretty sure that storm would be considered an overrunning event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Do you (or anyone else) know of examples where you've had 8+ inch snows from an overrunning-based storm (without a big coastal low)? Some of our bigger, widespread snowstorms across the south have come from this type of setup (waa being thrown back into a massive cold high), but I was curious as to how often that has occurred in the DC area. The start of PDII was all overrunning if I remember. Then the coastal took over. Most events that have even been any good for us that I know of are 3 - 5" and usually end in rain or a mix. And that is the BEST case scenario, which this will not be. I cannot remember the last event honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 RGEM is trying hard to get precip north 48 hrs http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif precip type...the bad news http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/c36_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 00z GFS has about .1 QPF DC south.. but its stretched out over a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 RGEM is trying hard to get precip north 48 hrs http://www.weatherof...ast/520_100.gif precip type...the bad news http://www.weatherof...ast/c36_100.gif RGEM p-type forecasts are bogus. It had a lot of rain here for the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 RGEM p-type forecasts are bogus. It had a lot of rain here for the last storm. no need to fret on this one the threat, if there ever was one, no longer exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FrederickWX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 yep, it's been a ruff 3 years w/o snow! Seems like things quiet down as far as snow threats go, until we get towards the end of January. I feel bad for the DC folks who saw very little out of the last three events. Hope February is more favorable for everyone in the region, otherwise, it's going to get ugly in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 like I said this thread should have been deleted days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 like I said this thread should have been deleted days ago Thanks BJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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