usedtobe Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This is from EDUGGS in the NY thread, he usually knows his stuff: If the GFS and now GGEM are right in sending a sharp trof through the upper midwest around day 4 there could be a threat in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. H5 LOOKS RIPE FOR A MID-ATLANTIC STORM. The strongest baroclinic zone is pushed pretty far south so it will be hard to get a SLP going in the southeast, but it will happen with a sharp enough trof and some good vorticity advection. We've seen the scenario before where the strong cutoff near Newfoundland pinches in two, with a double barrel vortex retrograding back toward Ontario and possibly southward into the developing trof. You have to use your imagination a bit, but this next week doesn't have to be suppression city. The only trouble with his scenario of the strong cut-off low splitting and prt retrograding is there is no strong blocking ridge to the north to provide east winds. Instead we have a big vortex up neat Baffin Island. I don't think there is room for that retrogression to take place. That doesn't mean it's impossible for the strong upper trough that is showing up at 84hrs to cause enough of a wave to get precipitation up to us but makes it pretty though. The most likely scenario is for the system to shear as it comes eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 The only trouble with his scenario of the strong cut-off low splitting and prt retrograding is there is no strong blocking ridge to the north to provide east winds. Instead we have a big vortex up neat Baffin Island. I don't think there is room for that retrogression to take place. That doesn't mean it's impossible for the strong upper trough that is showing up at 84hrs to cause enough of a wave to get precipitation up to us but makes it pretty though. The most likely scenario is for the system to shear as it comes eastward. Thanks Wes for your usual quick and easy explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z guidance still wants to cold-stomp tm the shortwave. We'll see who's right, my subjective weenie opinion, or actual models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 Euro gets light snow to DC line Wednesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 read somewhere else that there is a stratopheric warming going on, supposed to be a prelude to major cold in mid jan. Is this accurrate?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Euro gets light snow to DC line Wednesday night. That's quite different from the GFS and NAM??? They are both dry for that time, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Euro gets light snow to DC line Wednesday night. it's about time for a system with potential to go south of us the "north of us routine" has worn out its welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 That's quite different from the GFS and NAM??? They are both dry for that time, correct? what are the call letters for Staunton and I'll get you a qpf on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 read somewhere else that there is a stratopheric warming going on, supposed to be a prelude to major cold in mid jan. Is this accurrate?? SSW is a good signal for a cold outbreak somewhere (last year was Europe and not us), but it takes awhile to manifest once the SSW happens. So, probably Jan 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 ezf is .19" qpf on Euro but not all of that would be snow due to bl half maybe? just a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 SSW is a good signal for a cold outbreak somewhere (last year was Europe and not us), but it takes awhile to manifest once the SSW happens. So, probably Jan 20th? must be referring to this, last night's run off the Berlin site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 .53 in Richmond. Not that far from us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 .53 in Richmond. Not that far from us mostly rain but some snow at the end I would guess hard to tell with those 6 hr intervals when the change would take place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 SSW is a good signal for a cold outbreak somewhere (last year was Europe and not us), but it takes awhile to manifest once the SSW happens. So, probably Jan 20th? You also have to have downwelling to really have the it impact the AO. It's not a 1 to 1 relationship even with the AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 1 inch. That's all I'm asking for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Euro gets light snow to DC line Wednesday night. Unless the higher resolution every 6 hourly depiction really improves the look, the 500h and surface with the wave are pretty pathetic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 what are the call letters for Staunton and I'll get you a qpf on it I'm a hundred miles north of Staunton. KOKV is Winchester, but I can already guess that it is 0.00. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm a hundred miles north of Staunton. KOKV is Winchester, but I can already guess that it is 0.00. I'm sorry, I thought you were further south in the Valley anyway, you get .03" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm sorry, I thought you were further south in the Valley anyway, you get .03" Thanks Mitch. I can always hope for 33:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Thanks Mitch. I can always hope for 33:1 ratios. Yeah. It looks like we get about 33 snowflakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 if nothing else, we should be able to get some great hallucinations out of this "event" let's start now! http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/PCPN/DATA/RT/na-wv-loop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm sorry, I thought you were further south in the Valley anyway, you get .03" FWIW, Staunton is KSHD (Shenandoah Valley Regional Airport). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 18Z GFS has light snow for Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 18Z GFS has light snow for Tuesday evening. Pretty big jump north with that moisture from 12z. The Euro must be totally different to have moisture on Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 30, 2012 Author Share Posted December 30, 2012 18Z GFS has light snow for Tuesday evening. about ~0.12" for DCA..more for Chesepeake bay....not sure of precip type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Pretty big jump north with that moisture from 12z. The Euro must be totally different to have moisture on Wed night. I can't see there being much precip as the 500h pattern has a vort with pretty flat flow and the surface pattern is not very good. That's on both models even with the timing differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 about ~0.12" for DCA..more for Chesepeake bay....not sure of precip type surface temps look to be in the low-mid 30's aaaagain, at least looking at the ncep maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Pretty big jump north with that moisture from 12z. The Euro must be totally different to have moisture on Wed night. NAM has the moisture drying up before making it over the mountains. Which is most likely what will happen. We have all seen that before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I can't see there being much precip as the 500h pattern has a vort with pretty flat flow and the surface pattern is not very good. That's on both models even with the timing differences. overrunning never works around here either due to suppression or the warm air wins out and we get a lot of rain after some snow PDII had an extended period of what could be considered overrunning before the storm hit, but that is the exception and a totally different beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 it would be comical if it wasn't so pathetic if you click on this loop of 2m temps off the 18z GFS, the freezing line moves north as soon as the precip moves into the DCA/Central MD area....un-effin-believable you're going to have to click on this and then click on LOOP http://mag.ncep.noaa...=10m_wnd_precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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