EastCoast NPZ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 it's been a long time since things have been suppressed to our south, so to me, that causes pause otoh, fwiw, it fits nicely into the CFS2 forecast for JAN precip I gladly take normal Jan precip so long as we have favorable temps. Of course, that 2-inch average will probably come from a super-wound up system on its way to Chicago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Super dry in CA is a great thing. Argues for continued +pna. I can envision what 500 looks like with that chart and it isn't bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Super dry in CA is a great thing. Argues for continued +pna. I can envision what 500 looks like with that chart and it isn't bad. yep, I can see all that High Pressure to our north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18z GFS has a sheared mess with some QPF Jan 3 to 4th... like 0.15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18z GFS has a sheared mess with some QPF Jan 3 to 4th... like 0.15 It's actually showing 2 different over run events over a 3 day period. We might just nickle and dime our way into a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Sheared mess aside, models are showing precipitation in the vicinity of cold air in the vicinity of the MA. No signal for a big storm at this time and I think the odds favor that to continue. However, I'd be thrilled with 1" and sub freezing temps start to finish. Take what you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Idk- we've had a lot of big strong highs modeled in the wake of the big wrapped up systems and not one single one has come true. It would be fitting to go from unlimited marginal air & weakness to our N to a total squash fest but I have my doubts. I'll go out on a limb and say the juice ends up closer than modeled and possibly more amped. Most likely the battlground sets up further N. Congrats RIC? Can't wait for the impending virga storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 fwiw, Accuwx snowfall maps off the 18Z NAM gives us several shots at <1" 60 hrs on with the different impulses so who knows EDIT: GFS does it too during the same period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Mitch, the period is well worth a watch. If it produces it won't be big but I've barely had small so I'll take anything at this point. I'm sick of the wet ground with the snow too. Is an inch on top of *frozen* ground really too much to ask? I mean enough already...sheesh.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think it has been discussed but this is the kind of pattern that something can just sneak up on you and overproduce. Wr are all looking for a ku set up 7 to 10 days out but it might be one of these impulses not modeled in advance that gives us a worthwhile event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think it has been discussed but this is the kind of pattern that something can just sneak up on you and overproduce. Wr are all looking for a ku set up 7 to 10 days out but it might be one of these impulses not modeled in advance that gives us a worthwhile event. yep. i got sucked into these last few events because we've been chilly, but next week looks cold (relatively speaking). let's get the cold air first and then see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think it has been discussed but this is the kind of pattern that something can just sneak up on you and overproduce. Wr are all looking for a ku set up 7 to 10 days out but it might be one of these impulses not modeled in advance that gives us a worthwhile event. I, for one, couldn't care less about a KU. I think a three inch snow with temps in the 20's would be a great event. I'll bet others would share that sentiment. Precip, that's the focus. Give us the precip, take our chances with the rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Super dry in CA is a great thing. Argues for continued +pna. I can envision what 500 looks like with that chart and it isn't bad. Actually , some of our biggest blockbuster east coast storms happen as big California storms redevelop moving east out of CA and head down to the gulf before coming north again. Usually Calif has wet winters in El Nino patterns though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Figures that just as the Pna starts to cooperate the nao goes to crap and the flow gets progressive and flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Figures that just as the Pna starts to cooperate the nao goes to crap and the flow gets progressive and flat. Looks like its forecast to be going negative in a couple of days for s short spell. That's right about the time the disturbance down south is getting going. You always talk about storms trending north not west (or was it the other way around), so I wonder if this doesn't have a chance to be a bit less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I really like what DT had to say about this event. Correct me if I'm wrong but the past few storms have ended up having stronger lows than originally modeled. If the SW low gets stronger, it should prevent it from being squashed as much by the northern LP, allowing it to shift north, bringing decent precip up into the central (and possibly northern) MA. Is this not a possibility? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I really like what DT had to say about this event. Correct me if I'm wrong but the past few storms have ended up having stronger lows than originally modeled. If the SW low gets stronger, it should prevent it from being squashed as much by the northern LP, allowing it to shift north, bringing decent precip up into the central (and possibly northern) MA. Is this not a possibility? always possible, but remember the stronger the system, the more warm air it brings with it and we're not going to be frigid before or during the event as it's currently modeled, sooooo it's a very fine line between getting more snow and getting more mix/rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z GFS was in the low 20's wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Actually , some of our biggest blockbuster east coast storms happen as big California storms redevelop moving east out of CA and head down to the gulf before coming north again. Usually Calif has wet winters in El Nino patterns though. It's all relative. Yea, Nino active stj is weenie porn but this year a wet CA = -pna. It's becoming obvious now. Trough in the west comes with a crappy epo. Unless something drastic changes, we aren't getting anything that resembles a Nino stj. We can get split flow though. That's kinda what I was hinting at. Looking at the cf2 panel has the general look. Wet in West Mexico ranges and the se along with a dry CA and aob temps in the east is one of the realistic ways we can get something going around here. Have a hunch that the rest of the winter is prob gonna feature imperfect setups and timing issues but no extended shutout periods. Take what we can get and don't fret the lack of a classic look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I agree Bob. Take this New Years Day set up. Moisture overruns with the 0 and -3C temp line stacked up close to us RH is good and each run shows this feature with better temps on new NAM run. Might be good for an inch over about 10 hrs...but I could be reading it wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 meh, the NAM tonight is the same old garbage we've seen for the last 3 winters now 0-850 line to our south with surface temps in the mid 30's+ what a bunch of cr@p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I am shocked the 00z GFS found room for a closed H5 low over Tennessee considering this is a megaconfluent pattern. However, that H5 depiction will not verify with a weak surface low tracking out to sea. I can almost promise big changes in later runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 FWIW.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I try to stay positive but it's hard and I know winter just started . The overall pattern in the long range wreaks of nothing and another crappy winter in store for all of us in NOVA/DC.Yes there can be model suppression but our oscillations tell me other wise. +AO/+NAO EWWW!!The Jan 2-4 event doesn't show me anything. I got a feeling in 2 weeks many of are going to write winter off. We are going to have to wait for February for our 1st snow event and possibly the only one for this winter. I guess will wait and see the outcome!!! We can't have 2 snowless winters in a row right? I am looking for a winter storm and not 2"inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I try to stay positive but it's hard and I know winter just started . The overall pattern in the long range wreaks of nothing and another crappy winter in store for all of us in NOVA/DC.Yes there can be model suppression but our oscillations tell me other wise. +AO/+NAO EWWW!!The Jan 2-4 event doesn't show me anything. I got a feeling in 2 weeks many of are going to write winter off. We are going to have to wait for February for our 1st snow event and possibly the only one for this winter. I guess will wait and see the outcome!!! We can't have 2 snowless winters in a row right? I am looking for a winter storm and not 2"inches. 2 inches counts as a snow event. So many (not DC) have seen their 1st snow event. Also writing off winter in 2 weeks would be stupid. While you might be right about the pattern, you post leans strongly weenie in terms of assuming winter can/might be cancelled by many in 2 weeks. We can get snow into March sometimes. Some already predicted that this would be a backloaded winter. Let's get through any bad stretches calmly. Very premature IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Check your messages KMLWX!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 True and I am still paying attention to this time period that was just a general comment. You are right about the north trend but not sure this time. The north trend seems usually to be associated with the h5 low being too far south on the models. This time the H 5 is washing out. Looks like its forecast to be going negative in a couple of days for s short spell. That's right about the time the disturbance down south is getting going. You always talk about storms trending north not west (or was it the other way around), so I wonder if this doesn't have a chance to be a bit less progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This is from EDUGGS in the NY thread, he usually knows his stuff: If the GFS and now GGEM are right in sending a sharp trof through the upper midwest around day 4 there could be a threat in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. H5 LOOKS RIPE FOR A MID-ATLANTIC STORM. The strongest baroclinic zone is pushed pretty far south so it will be hard to get a SLP going in the southeast, but it will happen with a sharp enough trof and some good vorticity advection. We've seen the scenario before where the strong cutoff near Newfoundland pinches in two, with a double barrel vortex retrograding back toward Ontario and possibly southward into the developing trof. You have to use your imagination a bit, but this next week doesn't have to be suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCoWx Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This is from EDUGGS in the NY thread, he usually knows his stuff: If the GFS and now GGEM are right in sending a sharp trof through the upper midwest around day 4 there could be a threat in the Thursday-Friday timeframe. H5 LOOKS RIPE FOR A MID-ATLANTIC STORM. The strongest baroclinic zone is pushed pretty far south so it will be hard to get a SLP going in the southeast, but it will happen with a sharp enough trof and some good vorticity advection. We've seen the scenario before where the strong cutoff near Newfoundland pinches in two, with a double barrel vortex retrograding back toward Ontario and possibly southward into the developing trof. You have to use your imagination a bit, but this next week doesn't have to be suppression city. I wouldn't mind it being suppression city...just as long as it's not too suppressed. Those in the North have had snow. Those of us in the lower Mid-Atl haven't yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 What did the euro have ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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